The 2025 WTA Finals is coming into its last round of the group stages, as players battle it out for the semifinal spots. At this year’s WTA Finals, the field was dominated by Americans, with four of the eight qualified players being American, with the likes of Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, and Amanda Anisimova still in contention for qualification.
However, of the four, the reigning Australian Open champion, Madison Keys, has bowed out of the competition with her two successive losses. The American player was far from her best, as she was absolutely crushed by Iga Świątek in the first match, winning only two games against the Pole.
However, she was in a commanding position against Anisimova, winning the first set and having a 2-0 lead in the second set. But Keys ran out of steam as Anisimova came back in the match, winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.
Can Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, and Amanda Anisimova Still Qualify for the Semifinals at the WTA Finals?
Of the other three American players in the WTA field, Anisimova has the clearest chance of making it to the next round, as qualification remains in her control. As the standings in the Serena Williams group are, the winner between Anisimova and Swiatek will be in a straight shootout to reach the semis.
Anisimova suffered one of the most humbling defeats at the hands of the Pole in the Wimbledon final this year, but she demonstrated her mental strength with a dominant win at the US Open against the same opponent.
The qualification situation for Gauff and Pegula is a bit tricky. Both have won and lost one match each, with Gauff’s last remaining fixture being against Aryna Sabalenka and Pegula’s last match being against Jasmine Paolini.
If the match between Gauff and Sabalenka ends in a win for the latter, and Pegula registers a win against Paolini, then it is the World No. 6 who qualifies for the semifinals. If the opposite situation happens, with Gauff winning and Pegula losing their respective matches, then it is the former who goes through.
In the event that both Gauff and Pegula win, they will be tied with two wins each, and in that case, the percentage of sets won by each player will be taken into consideration. Currently, Gauff has a 60 percent set win rate, and Pegula’s is 50 percent.
If the former wins in straight sets against Sabalenka, her win rate will go over 70, and Sabalenka’s will come down below 60. This will open the door for Pegula, as she will go through if she wins in straight sets against Paolini.
If Sabalenka wins a set against Gauff but the American wins in three sets, then the Belarusian’s set percentage will be equal to Pegula’s, provided the latter does not lose a set to Paolini; in this case, the percentage of games will come into play. If Pegula loses a single set in her last match, her chances are all but over, even if Sabalenka goes down in straight sets against Gauff.
If both Pegula and Gauff lose their respective matches, then Sabalenka will go through, and the head-to-head record between the two American players will come into play, which will favor Pegula, as she has a 4-3 head-to-head record against Gauff and also won their match at the WTA Finals.
Pegula has a dominant 5-0 head-to-head against Paolini, which makes a straight-set victory for the American player a high possibility. Meanwhile, Gauff has a 6-5 head-to-head against Sabalenka, making the task slightly more difficult for the American player in her final match.