Tennessee Titans record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks

As running back Derrick Henry returns from injury, what are the Tennessee Titans' odds and record prediction for the 2022 season?

The Tennessee Titans have made the playoffs for three straight years under head coach Mike Vrabel. With running back Derrick Henry returning from a foot injury, the Titans are hoping to make a Super Bowl run in 2022. Let’s examine the Titans’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC South, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.

All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 7 at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Tennessee Titans record prediction 2022

Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 11 of the Titans’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, Tennessee is projected as favorites in three games, underdogs in four, and a push in four. If their first 11 games of the season match those predictions, the Titans will have a 3-4-4 record following Week 12 of the 2022 campaign.

The Titans still finished the 2021 season with a 12-5 record despite Henry missing nine games and seeing a major decline from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Vrabel built a defense that has ranked in the top 12 of scoring in each of the last four years. Major changes were made on offense this offseason as the Titans had to overcome cap limitations.

Their Divisional Round 19-16 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals revealed major issues on defense. Joe Burrow torched the Titans for 348 yards on 28 completions. Tennessee needs more from Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley for this to be a championship-caliber unit.

Henry returned from injury to play but produced just 62 yards and one score on 20 carries. He wasn’t fully healthy and recently said he completed physical therapy this offseason in order to get back to form.

Titans odds, picks, and props

Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Titans on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.

  • Titans win total: 9 (over -105, under -115)
  • Titans to win AFC South: +170
  • AFC West winner: +150
  • AFC winner: +2000
  • Super Bowl winner: +4000

Oddsmakers aren’t too keen on the Titans’ ability to dominate the regular season once again in 2022. Some of this is due to improved competition. The Indianapolis Colts took a major step forward with their offseason acquisition of Matt Ryan. The Jacksonville Jaguars spent $173.5 million in guaranteed money to bolster their roster.

The AFC South isn’t great, but it’ll be more challenging. The AFC as a whole is stout, and the Titans have the 12th-most difficult schedule. If Tannehill repeats a season where he had a 2.6% interception rate, averages under 220 yards per game, and takes 47 sacks, the Titans have little chance of emerging from a loaded conference.

Their win total is low for a team averaging 10.5 wins over the last three years. But the Titans’ margin for error is smaller than ever. The decision to trade receiver A.J. Brown and replace him with rookie Treylon Burks and then acquire Robert Woods from the Rams after he tore his ACL last season lowered this team’s ceiling.

The Titans are a playoff threat, but their upside is to be a spoiler team come January, not an actual Super Bowl contender.

Titans MVP odds and player props

The Titans are one of only a few teams where their running back is the focal point of the offense and, therefore, their leading MVP candidate. Still, quarterbacks win MVP, and rushers or receivers win Offensive Player of the Year.

Nevertheless, we’ve found some advantageous Titans player props below for consideration. Let’s take a look at the best Titans awards odds and prop totals.

  • MVP
    Derrick Henry 50-to-1
  • Offensive Player of the Year
    Derrick Henry +1400
  • Defensive Player of the Year
    Harold Landry 65-to-1
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year
    Treylon Burks +800
  • Ryan Tannehill regular-season passing yards
    Over/Under 3,600.5 (over -105, under -115)
  • Derrick Henry regular-season rushing yards
    Over/Under 1,350.5 (-115)
  • Harold Landry regular-season sacks
    Over/Under 9.25 (over +100, under -130)

Getting action on Tennessee’s stars is a must. Even if we’re not as optimistic about the team’s success, that’s more of a concern regarding their depth than these individuals. Much of what the Titans will do this year is predictable and, therefore, smart for us to bet on.

If Henry is healthy, he’ll again assume a full workload in the running game. Even with a revamped offensive line, he’ll get the volume of carries needed to eclipse a very conservatively set rushing total of 1,350.5. That is a number based on health, not opportunity or talent.

Tannehill’s passing total is also conservative. Unless you think he’ll get hurt, Tannehill has only failed to be on pace to eclipse that total twice in his career: his rookie season and his final year in Miami when he was banged up. Last year was close to the worst case for his numbers, and Tannehill still reached 3,734 yards.

We like those Titans prop picks as the headliners. Let’s dive into team picks and more player odds below.

Titans 2022 picks

Despite all of the good things the Titans have accomplished over the last three years, they are stuck in this “playoff contender but Super Bowl pretender” situation. Their decision to draft Malik Willis could pay off in future years if his physical potential can be harnessed. Unfortunately, by then, Henry will likely be out of his prime unless he’s set to produce into his 30s like Adrian Peterson.

Their win total is well-set at nine. Buying it down to 8.5 wins is an option, but I’m not touching it. I’d rather bet on the Titans securing second place in the AFC South and not making the playoffs.

The competition in the AFC East, AFC North, and AFC West will produce the three wild cards despite the South being weaker. Tennessee isn’t a bad team, but their tough schedule offers few breaks. The only mediocre or worse out-of-division teams Tennessee will play are the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.

1u: Titans to finish secon in AFC South (+140)
1u: Titans “no” to make the playoffs (-120)

Player props

The Titans player props odds are more enticing.

Going with a full unit on Burks to win Offensive Rookie of the Year is a vote of confidence in his role. Burks will take Brown’s role despite not being nearly as polished and produce similarly. His athleticism and power are perfect for replicating what Brown did, even if the Titans underused Brown to his capacity.

Taking the over on Tannehill’s and Henry’s yard totals are betting on the Titans continuing their formula while under Vrabel’s watch. Both have been reliable and healthier than not. Henry’s injury was a broken bone and not a soft tissue issue, so there’s no reason to think there will be a reoccurring problem this season.

Landry is the final prop bet I found value on. With 12 sacks marking his breakout in 2021, Landry was able to go from a guy who almost gets there to one who finishes. With any luck, Dupree will be 100% healthy and able to be the complementary piece Tennessee signed him to be.

1u: Burks Offensive Rookie of the Year (+800)
1u:
Tannehill over 3,600.5 passing yards (-105)
1u:
Henry over 1,350.5 rushing yards (-115)
1u:
Landry over 9.25 sacks (+100)

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