The Tennessee Titans will face the Chicago Bears in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Bears are entering a new era with a revamped team around a rookie quarterback, while the Titans are trying to build on what they started last season.
For all information about NFL betting and fantasy football, this is a one-stop shop for the Titans vs. Bears season-opening matchup.
Titans at Bears Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Titans +150, Bears -180
- Total: 44.5
Caleb Williams might have a very bright future ahead of him, but I don’t think his career starts with a win in front of the home crowd. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, No. 1 pick rookie QBs are 4-22-1 SU and 7-20 ATS in their first career start.
While that trend is scary for Williams and the Bears, I also think this Tennessee Titans team could be better than expected this season.
Rather than committing to a rebuild around second-year quarterback Will Levis, the Titans went in the opposite direction — surrounding him with veteran talent in hopes of making a playoff push with him on a cheap rookie contract.
This offseason, they added Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard on offense and L’Jarius Sneed, Quandre Diggs, and Chidobe Awuzie on defense. In the draft, they used their first-round pick on JC Latham, who should help improve an offensive line that picked G Peter Skoronski with the No. 11 pick in 2023.
While I think the Titans are being underhyped, I think the Bears love is a bit premature at the moment. I think at the very least the Titans can make this a close game.
Prediction: Bears 24, Titans 21
Pick: Titans +3.5
Titans at Bears Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: Fox
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FOX NOW
- Radio Stations: 104.5 The Zone, WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
- Starting QBs: Will Levis, Caleb Williams
Tennessee got an early look at 2023 second-round pick Will Levis after he replaced veteran Ryan Tannehill midway through last season. However, the front office and coaching regime has doubled down on the second-year QB in 2024, ready to run it back.
Unlike 2023, though, when the plan was to start Tannehill and utilize RB Derrick Henry in the last year of his Titans career, Tennessee did not reasonably consider building around Levis. However, under rookie head coach Brian Callahan, the new staff had to bring in quite a few pieces to set Levis up to succeed this season.
The Titans signed Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to bolster the WR group while also signing Tony Pollard to take over as the RB1. Not only will Pollard provide a strong rushing presence, but he will also allow Levis to target a consistent set of hands out of the backfield. Combined with consistent investment into the offensive and defensive lines, Tennessee has set Levis up nicely.
While there was already a new QB in Tennessee’s building last season, the Bears drafted their new franchise centerpiece, quarterback Caleb Williams, with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. After trading Justin Fields to the Steelers, it was a foregone conclusion that the Bears would select Williams to revitalize the franchise.
Williams wasn’t the only talent injected into the Bears’ offense this offseason. They also signed RB D’Andre Swift in free agency, traded for WR Keenan Allen, and drafted WR Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Combined with DJ Moore, who was acquired in the trade with Carolina that let the Bears draft Williams, Chicago has set the rookie QB up for success from the jump.
Titans at Bears Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Will Levis: We know that Levis was awfully uneven as a rookie and we are all expecting more of the same in Year 2. The Titans spent the offseason positioning themselves to throw more in 2024 and I’m buying it – but that doesn’t mean he is going to matter in Week 1 or on any sort of consistent basis in anything but Superflex leagues.
I’m sure he will suck me in for some DFS exposure at some point, but not this week. Not even close. DeAndre Hopkins is expected to be active, although I’m not sure he’ll be at full strength, and when you combine that with a Chicago defense that was better than good down the stretch of last season (top-3 in opponent passer rating, EPA, and red-zone trips allowed from Week 12-18), there’s no reason to get cute here.
Caleb Williams: Some high-pedigree options require time to find their groove at the professional level and some are named Caleb Williams.
The arm is what is praised and I have zero concerns about it. This is an offense that is going to work to highlight his strengths and with the Titans intercepting a league-low 1.1% of passes last season (league average: 2.3%), I’m comfortable with projecting a nice combination of aggression and volume in Williams’ debut.
Why I have him as my QB8 this week is a bet on versatility. The Titans ranked 28th in pressure rate last season and with a trio of strong receivers, I have no concerns that Williams can produce top-12 numbers through the air. That’s encouraging, but what has me playing him over QBs that have some MVP steam behind them in Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love is his ability to pick up yards on the ground.
Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start – they averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game (for context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023).
That’s an impressive number at face value, but it’s even better when you consider that some of the quarterbacks in that sample (Christian Ponder, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater) weren’t exactly swimming in the same pool as Williams in terms of projected career arc.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard: Was limited health to blame for Pollard falling flat in 2023? It’s either a Space Jam situation where the MonStars drained him of his talent, or he is destined for a complementary role.
I’m not sure which of those three options is most likely, but we do know that this franchise thought highly enough of Tyjae Spears to take Derrick Henry off the field at times last season in favor of him. This leaves us with plenty of questions when trying to label Pollard’s true ceiling outcome.
The Bears were terrible in the red zone last season (31st), but so was Pollard, making it very possible that Spears gets the first crack inside the 20. Chicago did round into form down the stretch of 2023 and finished with the fifth-lowest mark in opposing running back yards per carry after first contact.
The concern here is obvious: volume. Henry was handed the ball on an absurd 52.5% of his snaps last season, and that is how he paid off fantasy managers. The league average for a running back hovers around 34% and if we give Pollard that rate along with Henry’s snap share, the mean projection comes out to 10.7 carries.
Is that enough? Is that enough behind an offensive line that was one of just six that failed to clear, on average, even three FEET of room for their running backs before contact? I don’t feel great about the Tennessee RB role as a whole being all that valuable this week and my confidence only dips further if we are looking at 10-14 touches apiece.
Tyjae Spears: As a rookie, Spears showed well for himself in the passing game, hauling in 52 of 70 targets and threatening defenses in space. Pollard can do some of that too, but considering that this franchise saw Spears do it, I think it’s reasonable to make him the favorite in the passing game, and that role could see some value against a Bears defense that had the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT a season ago.
I don’t have either Titans RB inside my top-30 at the position this week, but I do have Spears a few pots higher based almost entirely on the idea that this team put him on the field for the majority of their offensive snaps 12 times last season with Henry on the roster.
I’d wager that this backfield will have an alpha by the middle of October — I’m just not jumping the gun and assuming I can project who that’ll be in Week 1 against an improving defense.
D’Andre Swift: The Bears’ new RB1 is my favorite running back in this game, but I’m struggling with assigning him anything more than a low-end RB2, high-end Flex grade. The Titans allowed the eighth fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs last season, and that was where Swift thrived as a Philadelphia Eagle.
Leaders in carries with 5+ yards gained before contact, 2023:
- Lamar Jackson: 47
- Christian McCaffrey: 42
- Swift: 39
Tennessee also owned the best red-zone defense in all the land a season ago, making a bailout touchdown a tough bet. I think Swift is more dynamic than the Zamir White/Devin Singletary tier that I have ahead of him, but the touchdown equity of options like Raheem Mostert/David Montgomery keeps them ahead.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: At the beginning of August, we feared that a knee sprain would result in missed time to start the season, but he should be on the field, and if history holds, he might just post Flex-worthy numbers.
Hopkins has cleared 15 PPR points in eight of nine Week 1’s during his career (22.4 PPG), and while the exception did come last season (13.5 points), his 36.1% target share in that contest suggests that it wasn’t for a lack of trying (21.8 expected points). It wasn’t Week 1 last season, but it was Levis’ Week 1 in which Hopkins turned six targets into 34.8 fantasy points.
For the record, I have him ranked outside of my top 35 at the position. The missed time this preseason is concerning, and I just can’t wrap my head around playing a Levis target at less than full strength with the entire league at my disposal. If you squint, you could get there, and maybe there’s a DFS build worth exploring with him as the bring-back on a Chicago stack – it’s just not for me in redraft.
Calvin Ridley: If you have two, you have none. Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Ridley checked in at fifth. These two players aren’t identical, but there certainly is some skill duplication in Tennessee’s developing pass game and that has resulted in me trusting neither to open the season (both outside of my top-30 receivers).
With time, the hope is that either Levis looks like a franchise QB and can stabilize both of these playmakers or he latches onto his favorite of these two and elevates him to a top-25 producer.
I’d slightly favor Ridley in that race, though I’m not arrogant enough to bet on my initial feel given the depth at the receiver position. I’d rather play a stable skill set like Chris Godwin/Christian Kirk or swing bigger in a Jayden Reed/Tank Dell kind of way than gamble on the Titans’ unclear situation.
DJ Moore: This is a loaded offense, but the competition for looks seems destined to be at the WR2 role. Moore came to Chicago last season and earned targets at an elite rate in an offense that carried significant aerial risk – why can’t he excel again this season now that he has a year of experience under his belt and is paired with a better thrower of the football?
Moore is unlikely to dominate the target share the way he did last season due to the increase in talent around him, though I don’t think it’s risky to label him as the top earner. The Titans allowed the ninth-most yards per pass last season, and that’s more than enough to land Moore as a rock-solid WR2.
Keenan Allen: The 32-year-old has had a weird offseason. For the first time in his career, he has switched teams, and, likely, for the first time in his life, his athletic ability is being questioned. I’m not overweighing the #FatKeenan narrative, but there is no denying that Rome Odunze has looked quick this summer or that Allen has missed 11 games over the past two seasons.
Allen thrived last season thanks to catching a pass on a career-high 20.6% of his routes. He benefited from the extreme volume, which I think has virtually no chance of repeating this season. I’m taking the patient approach with the non-Moore receivers in Chicago. This offense should be strong enough to support two pass catchers; we just need proof of who that second man is going to be.
By the time bye weeks roll around, I suspect we will have a pretty clear picture of where the targets are going, which will land two Bear WRs inside my top 30 instead of two outside my top 35.
Rome Odunze: This rookie class has a chance to be remembered as one of the best, and I expect Odunze to post a few ceiling weeks. The question coming into the season is that of a floor — will he be the odd man out on a consistent basis, or can he develop a connection with Williams from the jump?
Fantasy is a game that sometimes rewards the aggressive and sometimes the conservative. You have the opportunity to be both when it comes to Odunze – you stuck your neck out to draft him, and now you can wait to cash in on your bet without taking the lumps along the way.
Maybe by Week 2, he’s locked in. Maybe not. I’m willing to miss one good week of production before plugging him in as opposed to chasing the breakout and risking multiple dud weeks in the process.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Punting the tight end position is dangerous these days with the deepening of the talent pool, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be pulled off. That said, if you’re going to execute this strategy, you have to do it in a smart way – Kmet doesn’t open the season as such.
In piecing together the position, you want upside in role or matchup and I’m fairly confident that Kmet offers neither. Last season, the Titans were a top-10 defense in terms of tight end receptions allowed, and only the Patriots allowed fewer scores to the position.
That lowers the opportunity count for a tight end that was already at risk in that department and subtracts from scoring equity that was already a weakness (Tennessee allowed the lowest red-zone completion percentage last season at 43.5%).
No matter what you think about the Keenan Allen weight situation, the veteran receiver is a proven target earner who, along with the other two primary WRs in this offense, ranks ahead of Kmet in the hierarchy of this offense.
Add in the fact that we appear destined for Shane Waldron to implement his TE committee situation with Gerald Everett and this is far too thin of a situation to bet on in Week 1. Maybe that changes with time and if it does, we can always adjust, but at the moment, it would be irresponsible to start a player that is unlikely to rank better than fourth (and maybe even sixth) in routes run.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Titans at Bears Key Stats To Know
Titans
Team: The Titans made 29-of-30 field goal attempts last season, the lone miss coming from 50+. That was the highest rate in the league. They went 28-of-30 on extra points.
QB: After a four-touchdown debut, Will Levis threw just four touchdown passes for the remainder of the season (226 attempts). For reference, over that stretch, Desmond Ridder threw six TD passes on 148 attempts.
Offense: DeAndre Hopkins ranked fourth in deep targets a season ago, while Calvin Ridley checked in at fifth while with the Jaguars.
Defense: The Titans allowed a league-low 82.4 rushing yards per game last season (3.2 yards per carry).
Fantasy: Tyjae Spears ranked 5th among RBs (min. 100 carries) in percentage (39%) of runs last season that picked up 5+ yards. The league average is 33.5%.
Betting: Do you think the Bears will make the playoffs this season? The Titans are a league-worst 3-12-1 against the spread over the past two seasons when facing teams that qualify for the postseason.
Bears
Team: The Bears had the best penalty-yardage margin in 2023, and it wasn’t close: +323 yards, 82 yards ahead of the second-place Chiefs.
QB: Caleb Williams had more touchdown passes last season in a 48-41 win over Colorado (6) than he had interceptions for the entire season (5).
Offense: The Bears spent the top overall pick on Caleb Williams to take over an offense that ranked dead last in percentage of offensive yards gained through the air last season (56.3%, NFL average: 66%).
Defense: The Bears had the lowest sack rate in the NFL (4.6%, NFL average: 7.1%).
Fantasy: Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start. They averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game. For context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023.
Betting: Over the past 10 seasons, rookie QBs cover 50.8% of the time, with overs hitting at a 58.2% rate in September games.