TE Rankings, Projections, and Start/Sit Advice Week 1: Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers, Kyle Pitts, and Others

One of the toughest positions to evaluate for fantasy football is tight end, because outside of the elite options, there is so much inconsistency in output. That can make your Start/Sit decisions each week really tough.

Therefore, we have dived into the main options and examined our rankings and projections to give you our TE Start/Sit advice for Week 1.

The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.

Brock Bowers’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE11
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.7
• Receptions: 3.5
• Receiving Yards: 38.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I’m fine rostering Brock Bowers and hoping that the raw talent wins out. That said, history tells us that you’re essentially betting on a touchdown if you start the Georgia star in his NFL debut, a shaky bet at best considering he’s on a team with one of the lower implied totals on the Week 1 slate.

Since 2002, only one tight end has scored double-digit PPR fantasy points in his first career game when not finding the end zone. If you’re curious, Coby Fleener was that player, and he had the benefit of playing in an offense led by college teammate Andrew Luck and a game script that required three times as many pass attempts as rushes (the Colts lost 41-21 in Chicago).

Bowers’ preseason usage was encouraging, and there is a path to him mattering this season. But he’s not ranked as a fantasy starter for me this week and likely won’t be for this first month – not until we get a grasp on his role and how this offense is going to function.

Cade Otton’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE17
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
• Receptions: 3.3
• Receiving Yards: 31.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

The king of the routes (second at the position and the Buccaneers’ team leader) is always on the field and rarely in fantasy lineups. It’s been over 10 months since the last time Cade Otton reached 50 receiving yards in a regular-season game.

The upside isn’t nearly enough to justify plugging him into a season-long league, but this matchup could make him an interesting DraftKings punt play in a PPR setting. The Commanders allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field – a five-catch, 55-yard performance would be enough to justify his price tag.

Cole Kmet’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE23
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.0
• Receptions: 2.4
• Receiving Yards: 25.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

Punting the tight-end position is dangerous these days with the deepening of the talent pool, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be pulled off. That said, if you’re going to execute this strategy, you have to do it in a smart way – and deploying Cole Kmet in your lineup to open the season doesn’t qualify as such.

In piecing together the position, you want upside in role or matchup, and I’m fairly confident that Kmet offers neither. Last season, the Titans were a top-10 defense in terms of tight-end receptions allowed, and only the Patriots allowed fewer scores to the position.

That lowers the opportunity count for a tight end that was already at risk in that department and subtracts from scoring equity that was already a weakness (Tennessee allowed the lowest red-zone completion percentage last season at 43.5%).

No matter what you think about the Keenan Allen weight situation, the veteran receiver is a proven target earner, who, along with the other two primary WRs in this offense, ranks ahead of Kmet in the Bears’ pass-catching hierarchy.

Add in the fact that we appear destined for Shane Waldron to implement his TE committee approach by incorporating Gerald Everett, and this is far too thin of a situation to bet on in Week 1.

Maybe that changes with time, and if it does, we can always adjust. Yet at the moment, it would be irresponsible to start a player that is unlikely to rank better than fourth (and maybe even sixth) in routes run.

Dallas Goedert’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE12
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.6
• Receptions: 3.3
• Receiving Yards: 41.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

The casual fantasy manager knows this name and wants a piece of this offense, but did you know that Dallas Goedert has never caught 60 passes or scored six times in a season?

The Eagles brought in Jahan Dotson this summer to solidify the WR3 role, and Saquon Barkley is among the most dynamic receiving backs in this game, making both of those thresholds an uphill battle once again.

Goedert sits outside of my top 10 at the position against a Packers team that allowed the fewest opponent drives a season ago. He’s going to live in the Dalton Schultz-tier for me more often than not – you can start him if you need to, but the upside is unappealing. That is why I’d prefer a prospect like Bowers to him, even without a defined role.

Dalton Kincaid’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE4
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.4
• Receptions: 5.9
• Receiving Yards: 54.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

If there is a tight end who is going to jump up a tier from where he was drafted to where he finishes this season, Dalton Kincaid would be my pick, and Week 1 could well prove to be a good example of why.

With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in town, is it not safe to pencil in Kincaid for an increase in route volume? As a rookie:

• Eight highest route-count games: 6.3 catches per game
• Eight lowest route-count games: 2.9 catches per game

There is no denying the opportunity that has presented itself for Kincaid, and the Cardinals don’t exactly profile as the type of defense that will stand in the way.

Last season, there were six instances in which a starter was targeted on at least 30% of his routes against Arizona, a rate that would land Kincaid’s projection among the very best in the game this week.

Included in that opponent list are alpha receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as a highly involved tight end in David Njoku.

Kincaid enters 2024 as Buffalo’s top target, and he should showcase his elite potential in this spot. He’s a strong DFS option and could well be the reason you earn a Week 1 win in your redraft league. I prefer Kincaid to Travis Kelce and have him labeled as TE2 for the week.

Dalton Schultz’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE15
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.9
• Receptions: 3.0
• Receiving Yards: 31.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

I don’t expect Schultz to ever occupy an “exciting” role in this loaded offense, but the window is open for some PPR value, and this could be a spot for him to push into the top 12 at the position.

The Colts allowed the sixth-most yards per short completion in 2023 (7.8), and if Stroud is truly hellbent on throwing deep more this season, it’s easy to envision a situation in which Indianapolis plays a shell defense that encourages him to check down.

For his career, Schultz has seen 78.9% of his receptions coming on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield, a role I very much expect him to occupy with Nico Collins and Tank Dell creating panic down the field. Stefon Diggs is a threat to absorb plenty of usage around the line of scrimmage, but I’ll bet on that connection taking a little time to develop, making the early season the time to explore using Schultz if you’re in a bind.

David Njoku’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE9
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
• Receptions: 3.7
• Receiving Yards: 41.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

If you’re simply looking at box scores from last season, falling in love with David Njoku is justifiable. In 2023, he set career highs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns with relative ease — not bad for a season in which the starting signal-caller was active for just six games.

The problem here is threefold:

1. Njoku faces more target competition this season.
2. The injury-prone quarterback still has the same shoulder injury to worry about.
3. The backup quarterback has changed.

Jerry Jeudy’s addition may not seem like an overly impactful move, but for a team that ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation last season — despite Nick Chubb missing the majority of the season — there isn’t a ton of wiggle room in terms of opportunity count.

• With Deshaun Watson: 1.7 points per target, 14.7% target share, 1.3-yard aDOT
• With Joe Flacco: 2.1 points per target, 24.6% target share, 6.7-yard aDOT

Njoku remains a back-end TE1 for me for now, especially in a game that could be higher scoring than most of Cleveland’s contests this season, but the risk of the floor falling out needs to be accounted for. I wouldn’t hate the idea of selling high should we get a few big games in this favorable run in the first seven weeks.

Evan Engram’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE6
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.9
• Receptions: 4.9
• Receiving Yards: 45.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I like Brian Thomas Jr.’s potential as much as anyone, but there is no denying that, until proven otherwise, Evan Engram is the man best suited to thrive in this Trevor Lawrence-led offense.

Engram finished 2023 with the second-most catches ever by a tight end in a single season (114), doing so in a very consistent and efficient manner. I’m projecting a little less volume but a little more scoring equity in 2024, something that could land him among the top five scorers at the position this week against the Miami defense that allowed the third-highest red-zone completion percentage last season (65.5%).

George Kittle’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE7
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
• Receptions: 3.1
• Receiving Yards: 42.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.4

The Moby Dick of the fantasy industry. The reason for many a restless night. My first thought whenever I see that Charlie meme from “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia” as he tries to connect the dots.

The random number generator that is George Kittle has as many 20-point games as sub-six-point games (six) with Brock Purdy under center – one of the more consistent and efficient quarterbacks in our game today. If we can harness Kittle’s powers for good, we are looking at a difference-maker, but you also want to try to avoid the pitfalls whenever possible.

Have I done it? Have I cracked the code?

Like Charlie, I spent way too much time on this, and my wife is questioning my sanity. Whatever … if I can get ahead of the Kittle peaks and valleys, it’ll all be worth it.

Those six big games I mentioned all came against a defense that was below average in terms of preventing yards after the catch, and five of them blitzed at a low rate. Of course, those are nice trends, but we will need to adapt to updated defensive trends as they come in.

For now, all we realistically have is 2023 data to rely on and guess when this profiles as a breakout spot!

Enjoy it. If the numbers from last year are even remotely predictive of this season, we will have to wait until a Thursday night showdown to kick off Week 6 for the next Kittle eclipse.

Hunter Henry’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE16
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.4
• Receptions: 2.5
• Receiving Yards: 28.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

Hunter Henry scored twice in his first two 2023 games and three times in his final two – and once in between. With this team bringing in target competition without much promise in terms of significant offensive upside, this isn’t a unit I’m targeting if I’m streaming the tight-end position.

If the itch you need to scratch is that of an AFC East waiver-wire tight end, Tyler Conklin and Jonnu Smith have my attention more than Henry.

Jake Ferguson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE10
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.0
• Receptions: 3.6
• Receiving Yards: 37.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

I went on record this preseason as saying that, of the tight ends being drafted as fantasy starters, Jake Ferguson would prove to be the best value; I stand by it. I took it a step further on the PFN Fantasy Podcast Bold Predictions episode (Aug. 26) by saying that he’d find the end zone 10 times this season; I stand by it.

The scoring equity is there in Dallas’ offense, but don’t mistake Ferguson as a one-trick pony. His aDOT (average depth of target) ranked 18th of 26 qualifiers at the position, a role that should give him a reasonable floor to buoy his value on a week-to-week basis. This is a position full of violent swings in terms of production, but Ferguson projects as the type that can challenge the peaks of most without asking you to absorb significant risk.

He ended last regular season with six straight games of 6+ targets and then showed out on the big stage against the Green Bay Packers in the playoff loss (10 catches for 93 yards and a pair of scores). If I’m right, with Brandin Cooks being on his last legs as a feared part of this passing game, Ferguson could ascend to Tier 1 — you don’t need to be as passionate about him as I am, but you’re playing him weekly and not thinking twice about it.

Jonnu Smith’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE20
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.8
• Receptions: 2.9
• Receiving Yards: 30.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

In today’s NFL, it’s hard to be as concentrated through the air as the Dolphins were last season, and that is why Jonnu Smith is of long-term interest to me. I’m not playing him this week, but it’s not hard to see him working his way into a 4-to-6 target role. If that’s the case, he will be a viable option when the Dolphins face a stingy secondary.

I don’t roster two tight ends anywhere. If you punted the position and roster Smith, you’ve committed to him, and I think that’s fine. If you punted the position and Smith is a free agent, I’d make sure to monitor his usage this weekend and potentially make a move if the snap share is stable.

Kyle Pitts’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE8
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
• Receptions: 3.6
• Receiving Yards: 49.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

Is this the year? We have four months to figure that out, but the Falcons’ Week 1 opponent, the Steelers, holding opponents to the second-lowest red-zone completion percentage in 2023 certainly isn’t encouraging.

That said, even in a vanilla offense, we’ve seen Kyle Pitts’ athletic profile be used downfield in a significant way. That is how you beat Pittsburgh, which allowed the seventh-highest deep completion percentage in 2023.

Due to the price you paid on draft day, you’re not afforded the time to wait and see like someone considering Pat Freiermuth.

Pitts is my TE9 this week, which makes him a starter in most formats. If he checks the usage boxes I need to see in Cousins’ debut, I could see him climbing as high as TE7 as soon as next week (MNF at Philadelphia).

Luke Musgrave’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE18
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
• Receptions: 3.4
• Receiving Yards: 35.3
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The 2023 second-round pick caught 73.9% of his targets last season in 11 games and scored during the win over the Cowboys in the postseason. Tucker Kraft remains a threat in terms of total usage, but I do think Luke Musgrave is the one fantasy managers should keep their eye on.

That said, this game projects as a low-possession contest, and at least four receivers in this offense project as better target earners.

Musgrave could carve out a role eventually, but I’m happy to be a week late rather than two months early.

Mike Gesicki’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE33
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 4.2
• Receptions: 1.7
• Receiving Yards: 18.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

There will be a time this season in which the stat “he runs a route on over 70% of his career snaps” will matter, and that is why I have Mike Gesicki labeled as a Fantasy Football Tight End Sleeper. But, in Week 1, there is no need to go to a thin option like this.

I believe there will be a third option in this passing game that will be of interest to fantasy managers, and Gesicki is my bet. Add him to your watch list now and be patient.

Noah Fant’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE21
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.5
• Receptions: 2.8
• Receiving Yards: 28.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I don’t really understand the idea of Noah Fant as a solution for people who punt on this position. In an offense with unstable QB play, do you want to bet on maybe the fourth option at pass catcher on an offense that should be able to run the ball reasonably well?

No thanks. There are plenty of options at the position on your waiver wire right now that interest me more this season. Fant has seen his yards per route decline in each of the past three seasons and ranked 34th of 39 qualified TEs in targets per route run in 2023 (13.5%).

Pat Freiermuth’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE14
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.3
• Receptions: 3.4
• Receiving Yards: 33.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I’m cautiously optimistic about Freiermuth. With just four touchdown catches over the past two seasons, the former Nittany Lion hasn’t cashed in on the promise he showed as a rookie when he caught seven scores. But with Diontae Johnson now a Panther, there are plenty of targets available for a career year to occur.

When running 30+ routes, Freiermuth has averaged 11 PPR points per game. Freiermuth reached double figures in 10 of those 12 games with 30+ routes run. In games with fewer than 30 routes run, he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game.

I can’t say with certainty that Freiermuth will be unleashed in that manner this season, but it’s within the range of outcomes, and that is why he’s in my top 15.

There is only so much upward mobility at tight end due to the increase in depth, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Freiermuth proves to be a very viable option for those who punted on the position.

Sam LaPorta’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE1
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 17.0
• Receptions: 6.2
• Receiving Yards: 64.3
• Receiving TDs: 0.7

The pride of Iowa was a revelation as a rookie (86-889-10) and looks more than ready to be the TE1 for years to come. Sam LaPorta ended last season (including the playoffs) with a touchdown or double-digit targets in five straight games, showcasing the ability to win at all levels in the process.

From a fantasy standpoint, it was his ability to earn targets in scoring positions that made my heart full at the end of 2023. In his final four games of the regular season, LaPorta saw five end-zone targets, a huge step forward from the three he saw in his first 13 NFL games.

If you believe, as I do, that the Rams could struggle to generate pressure this season, then their league-high 8.6-yard opponent aDOT when not applying heat to the quarterback is a ceiling riser for Detroit’s second option in the passing game.

As Jameson Williams sees his role expand, defenses are going to be forced into an impossible situation: Allocate resources to box in Amon-Ra St. Brown while keeping an eye on Williams over the top. LaPorta stands to be a beneficiary of that bind, matching up with linebackers who figure to struggle to keep up with him for more than a few steps.

What LaPorta did last season wasn’t fluky – you’re playing him every single week and gaining an advantage when doing so. I suspect he will be in the “pay up to be different” roster builds across DFS, and I’m here for it.

Taysom Hill’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE13
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.2
• Rushing Yards: 24.2
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.4
• Receiving Yards: 12.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

You’re either in or out on Taysom Hill – there simply is no gray area.

If you want to fully commit to Hill, play him every week and don’t waste too much time thinking about it. If you passed on him at the draft, keep it that way, and don’t add the Sunday scaries to your list of weekend anxieties.

Hill might be used in an improved way and prove to be a cheat code, or he will continue to be a random number generator that never has the same role in consecutive weeks.

I’m not big on randomness, and thus, will come in low on Hill (outside of the top 15) until I have a reason to pivot. We just haven’t seen him do it to open a season yet. Hill has just one double-digit PPG game in September on his NFL ledger.

I’d rather bet against Hill and have him beat me the one week I don’t play him than spend all season chasing the ceiling weeks and standing to lose multiple matchups as a result.

Trey McBride’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE5
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
• Receptions: 5.1
• Receiving Yards: 50.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

Arizona’s standout had a touchdown or five-plus catches in eight straight games to close last season. While the volume of looks might dip a little bit with the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr., the level of defensive attention likely will, too.

You drafted Trey McBride as a weekly lineup lock, and he deserves that title. At worst, he is the secondary target earner in an offense that we all like and in front of a defense that can’t stop anyone.

This game has two of the top-five tight ends for the week in my rankings.

Tyler Conklin’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: TE19
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.3
• Receptions: 3.3
• Receiving Yards: 32.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I used this stat a few times during the preseason when making the case for Tyler Conklin in deeper PPR formats, and I think it holds true again on Monday night.

Last season, after Aaron Rodgers’ injury and for the remainder of the fantasy season (Weeks 2-17), there were only five tight ends in the National Football League to have 4+ catches in more games than our guy TC:

• Evan Engram: 15
• Travis Kelce: 13
• David Njoku: 13
• T.J. Hockenson: 13
• Sam LaPorta: 11

That’s some impressive company, and with the 49ers owning the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT over the past two seasons, it wouldn’t surprise me if Conklin got his handful of highly efficient targets this week. It may not matter for standard-sized leagues (there is a lot of similarity at the position after TE13, making a player like this viable in deeper formats), but at some point, you’re going to be begging for cheap points — this is the man to do it.