Before a fractured fibula in Week 13, Houston Texans WR Tank Dell was striking fear into secondaries across the NFL. Despite his underwhelming size (5”10”, 165 pounds), defenses couldn’t keep Dell in front of them (15.1 yards per catch). As he developed a connection with C.J. Stroud, they became one of the better downfield hookups in the league.
As good as Dell was for fantasy football managers in 2023, questions are being asked entering 2024. How much better can Stroud realistically be? How will the acquisition of Stefon Diggs impact Dell’s opportunity count? Houston’s offense had a negative pass rate over expectation and upgraded at the RB position. How many Texans can offer consistent value?
Dell’s price tag is an interesting one as we approach 2024, so let’s dive into the profile to determine if he is worth a look at his current ADP.
Tank Dell’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s been a wild 12 months for Dell, there’s simply no other way to put it. He was busy running past defenders for the first three months of the 2023 season (15.1 yards per catch with seven scores in 11 games) before suffering the leg injury while blocking during a touchdown run.
The injury knocked him out for the season, a brutal end for both him and fantasy managers alike. Recovery was going well, but during NFL Draft weekend, Dell was caught in the crosshairs of a shooting and suffered a gunshot wound as a result.
The injury was deemed minor and is not expected to hinder him in any way, but it’s been a tough stretch for a receiver who took the world by storm last fall.
CJ STROUD THROWS A BOMB TO TANK DELL 🤯
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/89dODRfcED
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 19, 2023
Much like Nico Collins (and maybe this is more of a nod to Stroud than anything), I was impressed by Dell’s ability to earn targets. His size profile is that of someone positioned to struggle more often than not, relying on the big play to pay off for fantasy managers. However, by earning 10 targets on four separate occasions, he might well be the exception to the rule.
My concern, of course, is Diggs’ impact. Could Dell be used only as a deep threat? How many targets are realistically available? Are there more floor games in his future?
With those questions being something we won’t know until we are in the middle of the season, Dell is currently on the outside looking in at my top 30 wide receivers, ranking alongside players like Malik Nabers/George Pickens (clear role in a questionable offense) and both burners on the Kansas City Chiefs (Hollywood Brown/Xavier Worthy).
I don’t blame you if you want to invest in Dell as the cheapest member of this elite receiver trio for what we all expect to be a top-five offense. That said, I’d caution against assuming that the option that costs the least is the best value.
I’ve got Collins ranked as more of an alpha in Houston’s offense than consensus and would be thrilled to have him at the two/three turn after picking up a Tier 1 running back.
When it comes to my appetite for drafting these receivers at cost, I go Collins-Dell-Diggs.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Tank Dell
I have Dell projected for 76 receptions, 1,101 yards, and nine touchdowns, averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game. Relative to his WR29 ADP, that would be a great result if I am correct.
I am also kind of an island in my evaluation of Diggs as a rapidly declining talent. It’s important to draft with conviction, but it’s also important not to assume there’s no chance you are wrong.
I could be wrong about Diggs. If I am, if he’s even 70% of prime Diggs, Dell’s ceiling is likely capped as a low WR2.
Diggs’ mere presence is enough for me to actually project Dell to average fewer fantasy points per game than he did last season. Although I am much higher than the PFN consensus projection, both sets of projections have Dell taking a step back in the fantasy production department.