The Jacksonville Jaguars have endured a disappointing and injury-riddled 2024 campaign. But in the team’s Week 14 win over the Tennessee Titans, a clearer backfield hierarchy emerged.
Below we recap Tank Bigsby’s fantasy outlook, as well as determine how much you should spend on him in leagues that utilize FAAB.
Tank Bigsby’s Fantasy Outlook
The Jaguars’ running back situation has been hazy for much of 2024. Travis Etienne Jr. began the season as the clear lead back, but injuries and ineffectiveness boosted Bigsby’s value by midseason. Etienne subsequently returned to the RB1 role when Bigsby went down with an ankle injury, but the two have both been active since the team returned from its Week 12 bye.
In Week 13, Etienne was the lead back, with 13 carries to seven for Bigsby. However, that reversed itself in Week 14 vs. the Titans, with Bigsby taking 18 carries to just four for Etienne. That 14-carry differential is the largest between Bigsby and Etienne in a game where both have played all season.
Bigsby capitalized on that workload with 55 yards and a touchdown. However, a closer look at the snap share could indicate a different story. Bigsby only played two more snaps than Etienne (30 to 28), a week after Etienne played four more snaps than Bigsby (35 to 31).
How Much FAAB Should You Spend on Bigsby?
The truth is that Bigsby’s value is tied to the Jaguars playing in neutral or positive game scripts. He’s played 49% of the designed rush snaps this season, compared to 40% for Etienne. But on designed dropbacks, Etienne has played 48% of the snaps, compared to 26% for Bigsby.
As one of the worst teams in the league, the Jaguars can’t reasonably be expected to play most teams close. However, the Jags’ next three games are against the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans, all cellar-dwelling teams the Jags could be competitive against.
Thus, while a more difficult schedule would lead to Etienne holding more rest-of-season value, it’s entirely possible that the Jags are competitive enough to sustain Bigsby’s value. Still, Jacksonville is prone to implode any given week, making Bigsby a low-floor option if the Jags fall behind.
Bigsby is worth a decent FAAB bid (think 25-30% of your remaining budget) given the favorability of his upcoming matchups. But at best, he’ll be part of a timeshare on a shaky offense, and at worst, he’ll largely sit on the bench if the Jaguars are in clear passing situations.
Bigsby’s Background
Bigsby went to Auburn after being a highly coveted four-star recruit. He started off hot in 2020, with 138 carries for 834 yards and five touchdowns as a true freshman.
Bigsby’s best campaign came as a sophomore in 2021, with 223 carries for 1,099 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Auburn’s offense fell under difficult times in 2022, but Bigsby was once again a steady constant for the Tigers. Although his workload saw a slight decrease, Bigsby was still incredibly efficient in an incredibly chaotic system. He accrued 179 carries for 970 yards and 10 touchdowns and added 30 catches for 180 yards through the air.
After three productive years in college, Bigsby chose to declare for the 2023 NFL Draft as a true junior. And though six running backs came off the board before him, Bigsby was taken in the third round by the Jaguars.
His NFL career began inauspiciously vs. the Indianapolis Colts in his first career game. Bigsby picked up a Trevor Lawrence fumble but dropped it on the ground thinking the play was dead, which DeForest Buckner subsequently returned for a touchdown. Bigsby had a quiet rookie campaign overall, recording just 138 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns with Etienne serving as the clear bell cow.
His second year has been a different story. Bigsby eclipsed his rookie-year scrimmage-yard total by Week 4 this season and has 652 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns this season. With Etienne entering the final year of his contract in 2025, Bigsby’s time as the clear lead back in Duval County could be approaching soon.
