If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 bets for some of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ key playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans.
Top Tampa Bay Buccaneers prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Never bet against Tom Brady, right? I’ve never been a fan of saying, “We’ll never see his kind again.” But honestly, can we imagine seeing another 45-year-old, seven-time Super Bowl champion who hasn’t missed a game due to injury in 14 years? Additionally, on paper, Brady continues to lead what is one of the league’s best offenses.
And yet, we are allowed to bet against Brady, and this summer there are plenty of headwinds. Rob Gronkowski has retired again (we’ll see if he returns in December, though). Chris Godwin might not be 100% to start the season. Does Julio Jones still have enough left in the tank? Was Russell Gage effective last year because he was the clear No. 1 WR? And what about the Bucs’ diminished offensive line, as well as Leonard Fournette’s track record of regressing and/or getting hurt after 200+ touch seasons, dating back to college?
Betting against Brady this year means acknowledging he won’t come close to matching last season’s league-high 485 completions on a league-high 719 targets. Going against this all-world legend assumes his worst numbers since joining Tampa Bay. That leads me to recommend the following regular-season prop bets.
Passing yards: Under 4,500.5
Passing TDs: Under 35.5
This is a tough call. As previously mentioned, I believe strongly in a Fournette regression based on his historical performance trends, a weakened O-line, and improved backfield competition. Rachaad White is a legitimate threat to overtake Fournette this season. Yes, he is.
Last summer, experts were torn on whether Fournette or Ronald Jones would be the better fantasy play in this backfield. Fournette was a late-summer free agent signing in 2020 who did little to earn the team’s sustained trust as a starter, much less a bell cow.
If White looks better out of the gate, the Bucs won’t “owe” Fournette the lead job. They’ll give it to the RB who can help them win another Super Bowl. It’s that simple.
The injury-prone and volume-dependent Fournette is about a 50/50 bet for 175+ touches. As a result, he’s a fade in the following prop bets.
Rushing yards: Under 750.5
Rushing TDs: Under 7.5
Mike Evans is a great bet to keep producing. Let’s get that out of the way. He’s the healthiest and most talented receiver on a team that no longer has Gronk. Brady clearly trusts him (and who wouldn’t?). So Evans should continue to rack up yards.
But will he continue to hit double-digit scores? If we believe in a Brady regression (and as you now know, I do), and if he trusts Jones and Gage enough to cap Evans’ otherwise near-elite ceiling, then we can envision his worst touchdown total since 2019, and perhaps since 2017.
Since Brady joined the team, 17 of Evans’ 27 TDs (63%) have come inside the 10-yard line, compared to 20 of his first 49 TDs (41%) without him. In other words, Evans’ scores have been more situational the last two seasons, dependent on a prolific quarterback who looks his way often with the end zone a stone’s throw away.
In fact, Evans was No. 5 in WR targets inside the 10 last year and No. 2 the year before. I cannot bet on those favorable conditions continuing.
Receiving yards: Over 1,000.5
Receiving TDs: Under 10.5