The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs players head into Super Bowl 58 desperate to leave their mark in the biggest game of them all. There is no better way to do that than by winning Super Bowl MVP, something Patrick Mahomes has already done twice.
Mahomes enters Sunday as the clear favorite, and rightly so, but there are plenty of other intriguing options when it comes to who could be the Super Bowl 58 MVP. As one of the top betting options for the big game, let’s take a look at the top options that our NFL betting experts have identified.
Who Are the Top Super Bowl 58 MVP Picks Based on Current Odds?
Before we dive into the picks, let’s review the history of the award. In total, quarterbacks have won the award 32 times, wide receivers eight times, and running backs seven times. Linebacker sit at four, with defensive end and safety at two each.
In the last five years, we have seen three quarterbacks (two of them Mahomes) and two wide receivers collect the award. Extend it out to 10 years, and you have six quarterbacks, two wide receivers, and two linebackers.
You have to go back to Super Bowl XXXII and Terrell Davis to find a running back winner, while Travis Kelce and George Kittle are hoping to be the first tight end to collect the award.
Brock Purdy (+235 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Purdy has been something of a lightning rod this postseason, and his recent play has earned the criticism, but I’m assuming that this is about as friendly of a price as we’ve gotten in recent memory on the quarterback of the favored team and I’m happy to take it.
Purdy was a leader in the MVP race in December, so I don’t think the idea of him being able to produce at a high level is in question, and in a 60-minute segment, why can’t he regain that form? I understand that the Chiefs’ defense is peaking at the right time, but what is it that they do well?
Their two calling cards are pressure rate and the ability to stick L’Jarius Sneed on your top option (among others, but those are two strengths unique to them). For me, that means that Purdy will have to get the ball out quickly to YAC monsters in Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey — what’s the problem with that?
This Kansas City defense is too stout to get gashed by the same play over and over again, so any one 49ers skill player having a historic day doesn’t seem overly likely to me, nor does a defensive player doing enough to earn the honor.
If Purdy can scramble a bit like he did in the championship game, play clean football, and get the ball out on time, he’s in a fine spot to return value on a line that is a little disrespectful given the position he is in as the leader of the favored team.
Christian McCaffrey (+400 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: This quite simply comes down to one of two options for me — McCaffrey or Mahomes. If the Chiefs win, I believe Mahomes gets the MVP, and it is hard to see around that, barring a three-touchdown game from one of the skill position players.
Meanwhile, if the 49ers win, McCaffrey is the player in the frame for MVP. For every person who is positive when discussing Purdy, there is at least one detractor, which could make it hard for him to win the Super Bowl MVP. McCaffrey feels almost certain to score, will likely touch the ball 20+ times, and could end up with over 100 total yards.
Those sorts of numbers are going to make it easy for voters to choose McCaffrey if they have any doubts about Purdy. Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy shared a similar belief when he spoke with PFN on Radio Row.
“I can’t read the minds of the media, but I have a feeling, based on the way people talk about this game, that if San Francisco wins, I think they are going to be looking for a reason to give the MVP to someone other than Brock Purdy.
“I think there is a general belief that while Brock Purdy has the great numbers, he’s helped along by his teammates, sort of the feeling of giving the MVP to one of those teammates.”
Travis Kelce (+1400 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: I had to mention Kelce here because he has been one of the top options being bet on this week.
His odds plummeted when they were first posted as people rushed to bet on him after a stunning playoff run. However, as we discussed above, a tight end has never won this award, and that rings alarm bells for me.
Let’s play out what Kelce would need to do to stop Mahomes from winning this award. We have to assume that the Chiefs have won, so they have likely scored upwards of 20 points. Kelce realistically needs to catch more than half of the touchdowns, and if it is only two, he needs both of them.
That is a lot to ask, given he has only scored three touchdowns in total since mid-November. Sure, they all came in the past two weeks, but the 49ers cannot walk out of this Super Bowl having been beaten by Kelce’s play.
Isiah Pacheco (+3500 at FanDuel)
Katz: I very seldom bet on the Super Bowl MVP. Of course, it’s the Super Bowl. Have fun. I will bet plenty of things that I wouldn’t normally bet because it’s the last game of the season. The Super Bowl MVP market is historically difficult to beat because of how often the quarterbacks win it.
My go-to strategy with Super Bowl MVP betting is to take the WR1 of the team I think is going to when that WR1 is a clear top guy. I’ve done this exactly twice and been correct both times: 2009 Santonio Holmes and 2022 Cooper Kupp.
Neither the Chiefs nor the 49ers have that type of guy. If a wide receiver posts good enough numbers to be considered for MVP, I believe the award will go to the quarterback instead. That brings me to the only other Chief I can see winning it — Isiah Pacheco.
Back in 2020, Damien Williams almost won the award with 133 total yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes is always the MVP of the Chiefs, but I do think Williams probably should’ve been given the honor. My thinking is if Pacheco can run for over 100 yards and score twice in a Chiefs win, the voters will make up for 2020 and give the award to the running back.
The 49ers have shown vulnerability on the ground. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards against them. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 138 yards. A big game is in Pacheco’s range of outcomes. At +3500, I will swing on this long shot.
Brandon Aiyuk (+5000 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: I always like to take a long shot on Super Bowl MVP. It paid off in Super Bowl 50 when Von Miller took home the award, and I am hoping it will pay off again here. Picking Brandon Aiyuk is really a question of insane value compared to the other skill-position players.
When thinking about how I project this game, I give Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel almost equal chances of being Super Bowl MVP, but Aiyuk is significantly better proceed than Samuel. There is a path to Aiyuk having 100+ yards and a couple of touchdowns, which gives him a great shot at the award.
For what it is worth, I do not hate the idea of Samuel at +2000. With his rushing prowess and now finally appearing to be fully healthy, he could be a big part of this game.
There is arguably a better path to Samuel scoring twice in this game than Aiyuk, but Aiyuk has the better potential to have those eye-popping receiving numbers.
Jake Moody (+20000 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: OK, I can hear you laughing, but hear me out. There is every chance this game could be a tight, relatively low-scoring affair. Kyle Shanahan proved in the NFC Championship Game that he has unwavering faith in his kicker. Moody missed the first kick, and Shanahan went back to him twice more in the game when they were trailing big.
The narrative for some is that Moody’s kicking could cost the 49ers the Super Bowl. Now let’s flip that on its head and say he kicks four or five field goals in a low-scoring game where the 49ers only score one touchdown. Moody is now the hero who held his nerve and kicked the team to a Lombardi Trophy.
Fine, a kicker has never won the award, even though we have had other low-scoring Super Bowls. But, at 200/1 odds, is it not worth a few dollars at least? If you think Moody is the wrong kicker, then Harrison Butker is at similar odds, but the story of the much-maligned rookie kicker winning the Super Bowl MVP warms my heart a little more.
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