If you’re making DFS picks for Sunday’s late slate of games (4 p.m. ET) in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations. The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Sunday late games NFL DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing a FanDuel “Full Roster” lineup, which includes one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one Flex, and one D/ST. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
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Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
QB Geno Smith, SEA ($6,800)
I’ve constructed thousands of DFS lineups over the years. Each has its own DNA (or “flavor,” for those of you who prefer tasty analogies). Each set of DNA is based on likely game flow, sometimes weighted more heavily toward high-scoring contests.
The Seahawks entered this season in sort-of rebuilding mode. But they still have a couple of dynamic receivers capable of breaking things open, especially against weaker competition.
The opposing Falcons this week are entirely beatable through the air. With Justin Herbert coming off a rib injury, Tom Brady missing key receivers, Aaron Rodgers facing a fearsome Bucs defense, and so on, Geno Smith has as good a shot as any of his more expensive fellow QBs of being the best in this slate.
RB Cam Akers, LAR ($5,800)
We could spend $1,400 more on Leonard Fournette. But I have a plan, so let’s see how this plays out. Cam Akers brings solid 14-point upside in a favorable matchup.
RB Darrell Henderson Jr., LAR ($6,300)
Betting on Akers makes more sense when we also bet on Darrell Henderson Jr. Between the two of them, we should anticipate 100 total yards and a score. Maybe more? Sure, maybe more. This is a deceptively strong backfield rediscovering its groove.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR ($9,800)
Until he falters, keep firing up Cooper Kupp, especially in DFS competitions where there are few “automatic” elite producers. We could downgrade with Marquise Brown for $7,000. But in most scenarios, spending 29% more on an elite talent like Kupp makes more sense.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA ($6,700)
One of my favorite Week 3 rebounders, DK Metcalf has scuffled his way to 71 scoreless yards on 11 catches. This is a get-right game for the undervalued 2019 second-round draft pick.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA ($6,600)
How ’bout that DFS DNA? Our lineup is looking very Seahawky, and for good reason. If we believe Smith will be productive, then we can envision Metcalf and/or Tyler Lockett being big reasons why. Clearly, I really like both today.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL ($5,600)
Who’s high on Kyle Pitts today? Apparently, not many of us. Yet, he’s a terrific bounce-back candidate as Atlanta (presumably) plays from behind for much of the game. Marcus Mariota needs to get Pitts more involved. It’s that simple. Two consecutive 2-19-0 receiving lines for this all-world TE isn’t giving Mariota greater job security, unless he’s also winning. And he’s not winning.
FLEX Austin Ekeler, LAC ($9,700)
Yet another rebounder. Austin Ekeler hasn’t done much on the ground yet, though he’s been his usual solid self through the air. I like him scoring at least once today against the Jags.
D/ST Seattle Seahawks ($3,400)
We don’t have much to choose from at D/ST. The Bucs and Chargers are too expensive, meaning we’d need to downgrade elsewhere to make the numbers work. I like the other eight guys in this lineup. So let’s roll with who we have and hope Seattle contains Drake London and Cordarrelle Patterson (but not Pitts, of course).