8 fascinating Week 4 Sunday afternoon NFL prop bets, including James Conner, DJ Moore, and Davante Adams

Here are our top recommended Week 4 NFL prop bets based on likely game-script analyses for the late Sunday afternoon matchups.

If you’re planning to make Week 4 NFL prop bets, there are three compelling “late” Sunday afternoon contests today, beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET.

We’ve analyzed four of these late-afternoon teams’ highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.

Top NFL prop bets to bet today

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Panthers vs. Cardinals Week 4 prop bets

Arizona should be able to take this one, especially if Christian McCaffrey is as hobbled as he seems to be. Baker Mayfield simply doesn’t look like the answer in Carolina, but for now, this franchise doesn’t have any other (healthy) options.

That said, I’m not giving up on DJ Moore. A perennial weekly fantasy starter despite consistently playing with sub-par starting QBs, Moore somehow has only seven catches through three games. I’m expecting Mayfield to force the ball to him a lot more today.

On the other side of the ball, I’m not convinced James Conner can come close to replicating last year’s dominant fantasy production. Arizona has sufficient backfield depth this season with Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin to cut into a struggling Conner’s usage.

Moore receptions over 4.5 (+120) — FanDuel
Moore receiving yards over 50.5 (-110) — BetMGM
Conner rushing yards under 49.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Conner receiving yards under 22.5 (-115) — BetMGM

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Raiders vs. Broncos Week 4 prop bets

The Raiders have to win this one. Otherwise, their matchup in Kansas City next week realistically could drop them to 0-5 heading into their bye week. It could be argued that their diminishing playoff hopes hinge on what happens today.

Inexplicably, despite adding all-world receiver Davante Adams this offseason, Derek Carr has his worst QB rating since 2014 — his rookie campaign. The opposing Broncos’ defense looks great statistically, except they’ve only faced Geno Smith’s Seahawks, Davis Mills’s Texans, and Jimmy Garoppolo’s 49ers.

In other words, it’s too soon to say Denver’s pass D can contain an above-average passer. And yes, I still believe Carr is an above-average passer among NFL starters. And I’m all in on he and Adams willing their team to victory today.

Carr pass completions over 23.5 (-135) — BetMGM
Carr pass TDs over 1.5 (-135) — BetMGM
Adams receptions over 6.5 (-156) — FanDuel
Adams receiving yards over 79.5 (-113) — FanDuel

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