If you’re playing a Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 6, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Since the start of last season, only two quarterbacks have thrown for more than 300 yards against the Bills during the regular season: Tom Brady and now Kenny Pickett. When the story is written about Pittsburgh’s 2022 campaign, we might wonder why head coach Mike Tomlin waited until halftime of Week 4 to replace Mitch Trubisky. But the Pickett era has begun, and now we can craft a DFS lineup without worrying if their QB will be pulled mid-game.
There are still plenty of question marks surrounding their talented receiving corps. But one thing is for certain: Diontae Johnson’s days as the clear-cut No. 1 are over. While he led his teammates last weekend with 13 targets, Chase Claypool (nine) and George Pickens (eight) weren’t far behind. Pickens owns a much better catch rate than Johnson and, thus far, has looked like a more natural fit in this Pickett-led offense.
What about Najee Harris? Last year he was No. 2 among RBs with 30 broken tackles. This year he’s on pace for seven, while his yards-after-contact have plummeted a full yard, even as his yards-before-contact has increased.
It’s an ugly combination, and it’s a big reason why the formerly unheralded Jaylen Warren has continually gained ground. Betting on Harris anytime soon seems like the ultimate dart throw, particularly given his steep DFS price.
Is Tom Brady still near-elite? It’s difficult to say since he hasn’t enjoyed the sustained rhythm of a healthy receiving corps. Last week he had only one TD pass, so statistically, it was a middling 18-point fantasy day.
But beyond those numbers, we might appreciate that the Bucs’ second drive stalled at the opposing 15 after not converting on 4th-and-1. On the next drive, Brady found Chris Godwin, who took the ball to the one before Leonard Fournette ran it in. The drive after that stalled at the opposing three-yard line.
So while Brady’s on pace for 4,791 passing yards and only 24 touchdowns, consider that healthier receivers and continued scoring opportunities should keep his upside high. Sure, we don’t know if or when Fournette might have a three-rushing-TD performance, perhaps capping Brady at around 13 points. But more often than not, particularly against sub-par defenses like the Steelers’ (eighth-most points yielded), Brady remains a pretty safe bet.
As for his receivers, with Russell Gage scuffling most weeks, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain must-start WRs in fantasy, and nearly must-start WRs in DFS, depending on salary cap considerations.
Cade Otton and Ryan Succop could be fairly cheap solutions if we go top-heavy with our other four slots. Last week, I wrote that Otton appeared to be the team’s unquestioned No. 1 TE, and his six catches on seven targets against Atlanta reinforced that.
Top DFS Lineup for Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
My primary goal for this lineup is to snag Brady, Fournette, Evans, Godwin, and Pickett. But the only way to wedge in all five would be to contact DraftKings and ask for a higher salary cap. Since I don’t have their number handy, let’s play within the rules and see where we end up.
That said, I do have a pretty cool promo code for their sportsbook where you can get a $50 free bet with first deposit and a deposit bonus up to $1,000. You can get that here.
We’ll put Pickett ($9,200 normally, $13,800 as Captain) in our Captain slot. Joining him are Brady ($10,800), Fournette ($11,600), and Godwin ($8,600). That leaves enough room for Otton ($3,600) and Warren ($1,200).
I’m writing earlier in the week when we don’t yet know if Pat Freiermuth or Breshad Perriman will play. So there’s one key contingency plan. If Freiermuth and Perriman sit (along with Julio Jones, which seems likely), then I’d swap out Godwin, Otton, and Warren in favor of Evans ($10,200), Scotty Miller ($2,600), and Connor Heyward ($800).
This would be a bolder lineup since the rookie Heyward remains largely untested. But it would up our ceiling, assuming Miller brings more big-play ability as a No. 3 / No. 4 receiver.
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