The Pittsburgh Steelers benefitted from Justin Tucker’s struggles to put them firmly in the lead for the AFC North. According to Tru Media, the defense held the Baltimore Ravens to -9.4 EPA (expected points added) — their lowest mark of the season by a gigantic margin.
The Cleveland Browns are in the opposite boat as the Steelers. They sit at 2-8, and currently on pace for the No. 3 overall draft pick. They also currently have the second-lowest amount of cap space for 2025 at almost negative $12 million per Over The Cap.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Steelers -3.5 - Moneyline
Steelers (-192); Browns (+160) - Over/Under
37 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Huntington Bank Field
Steelers vs. Browns Preview and Prediction
The Browns have the worst offensive EPA in the league, are bottom-10 in big plays regardless of whether you cut it off at 10 or 20 yards, and are also last in success rate. Joe Flacco was able to come out swinging for this offense last year and at least keep them competitive. This season, everything has regressed.
Especially surprising is the offensive line, which has given up the 10th-most pressures per dropback this season despite being blitzed below the league-average rate. Part of this is due to injuries, but even PFF has both their pass block and run block grade at 29th in the league. This is dangerous against a Steelers defense that ranks eighth in quick pressure generated.
The original pressure numbers don’t do the Steelers’ defensive line justice. The only defense that forces teams to throw the ball quicker is the Philadelphia Eagles. Teams know what the Steelers bring and try to take that away by being quick and punctual in the short game. Luckily for Cleveland, they rank 24th in EPA when they get the ball out under 2.7 seconds (the average time to throw against Pittsburgh).
Even more promising, they jump to 12th when only looking at games with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. Overall, the Browns’ offense won’t be able to do much against a stout Steelers defense, even if they try to get the ball out quickly because they are too overmatched.
Defensively, the Browns rank 17th in EPA per play, much in part due to Myles Garrett being one of the most dominant players in the game. Garrett ranks fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate while also being doubled on an absurd 29% of his pass rushes. To put this into perspective, no one else in the top 20 in pass rush win rate has been doubled more than 25% (Nick Bosa).
This shows in the Browns’ overall team stats, as they rank first in the league in pressure generated, second in quick pressure generated, and 10th in blitz rate. When you adjust for the fact that the Browns’ defense is constantly playing from behind and left out to dry by their offense, you start to see they are much better than 17th. When leading, the Browns’ defensive EPA jumps to ninth in the league, and their success rate is seventh.
What makes the Browns’ defense even crazier is that they do all of this without forcing many turnovers. The Browns have the 30th-most defensive EPA gained from turnovers this season. Looking at just sheer turnover numbers, they rank 30th in turnovers forced per game as well.
This week, they face a Steelers offense that ranks 17th in EPA, 23rd in success rate, 17th in plays of 10 or more yards, and 15th in plays of 20 or more yards. It’s a perfectly average offense by most measures. Ironically enough, the Steelers’ offense has also been pristine with turnovers, giving the ball away just 0.8 times per game (tied for fourth-lowest).
The path for the Browns to win is very clear — either force the Steelers to make uncharacteristic mistakes and win the turnover battle (unlikely), or dominate the time of possession with quick and methodical throws that tire out the Steelers’ defense and end in scores. The stat that shows exactly that is Ben Baldwin’s series conversion rate. The Browns convert first downs into a new set of downs at the lowest rate in the league.
The rate at which each offense takes a 1st and 10 and earns a new set of downs
Chargers/Steelers offenses going to have to pick things up if they're actually going to compete pic.twitter.com/OlRd3GJh13
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 19, 2024
My pick: Steelers -192
With how little the Browns force turnovers and how little the Steelers turn it over, we need to look at the opposite side to see if there is any betting value. The Steelers are tied for third in forcing turnovers at 1.9 per game; the Browns are tied for 14th in committing them at 1.2 per game. DraftKings has the line set at 2.5 turnovers with plus odds to the under.
Alternate Pick: Under 2.5 team turnovers (+110)
Additional Pick From Fantasy/Betting Analyst Jason Katz
Last week, one of my misses was the over on Nick Chubb’s rushing attempts. What I did not know, and what we found out after the game, was that the Browns intentionally reduced Chubb’s workload in anticipation of the short week.
I’m banking on that decision having been made so the Browns could effectively lean heavily on Chubb tonight. With 10 days off, there’s no reason to hold back.
Even with more snaps than usual last week, Jerome Ford still only managed five carries for 10 yards. That was against a New Orleans Saints run defense allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game.
Now, the Browns are going up against a Steelers defense that allows the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. I don’t think Ford sees more than a couple of carries — something like three rushes for eight yards feels spot on.
Pick: Jerome Ford under 18.5 rushing yards (-103 Caesars)