Not many had the Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders matchup in Week 10 having a combined 13 wins. Both attempt to keep their division leads in this matchup Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 45)
The Pittsburgh Steelers (13th) and Washington Commanders (11th) are fairly even in terms of their overall PR+ standings. Both have played schedules that rank among the 10 easiest in the league to this point, but that’s where the similarities end.
The Steelers rank sixth on defense and second on special teams but 22nd on offense. In contrast, the Commanders are second on offense, 16th on special teams, and 23rd on defense.
If this game were being played in Pittsburgh, it would make sense to lean towards the superiority of its defense, but it being in Washington neutralizes that somewhat.
What this could ultimately come down to is that the Commanders are a middling team when it comes to red-zone offense but a poor team defending it. Meanwhile, the Steelers are below-average offensively in the red zone but excellent defensively. That gives them enough advantage that I lean toward them, yet I’m passing on an official play.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Commanders 22
Pick: Pass
Steelers at Commanders Game Stats and Insights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: After this game, Pittsburgh has four straight games against divisional opponents, including both Cleveland games.
QB: Russell Wilson has thrown for 542 yards and three touchdowns in his two starts this season – no player had that stat line through two weeks this season.
Russell Wilson drops it in a 🪣 for Calvin Austin III's second TD of the night!
📺: #NYGvsPIT on ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/KWAglgI9WV— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024
Offense: The Steelers averaged 2.55 points per drive in Weeks 7-8 under Russell Wilson, the seventh-best rate in the NFL over that stretch and a 29.4% improvement over Pittsburgh’s rate through the first six weeks.
Defense: Pittsburgh went into their bye with the utmost confidence in their defense – after creating pressure on just 18.5% of opponent dropbacks in Weeks 6-7, they sped up the Giants 53.5% of the time in Week 8.
SACK, FORCED FUMBLE, AND FUMBLE RECOVERY 💪 @_TJWatt
📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/COxKRnr6Mc pic.twitter.com/wKfKVUB1wM
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 29, 2024
Fantasy: Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, and Najee Harris were the only running backs to post top-17 numbers at the position in Weeks 6-7-8.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in eight of Pittsburgh’s past 10 road games, and they’ve covered 12 of their past 16 away from home.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders are seeking to start 5-0 at home for the first time since 1991. That was the season of their last Super Bowl title.
QB: Behind Jayden Daniels, this offense is turning the ball over a league-low 0.33 times per game. That’s the lowest average through nine weeks this millennium (second place: 2020 Packers, 0.38).
Offense: The Commanders reach the red zone on 48.8% of their drives, the only offense in the league with a rate of even 43%.
Defense: The Commanders own the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (9.1%).
Fantasy: There are two receivers to score 15-plus PPR points in four straight games this season, both of which are active streaks. The names? Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin.
Betting: The Commanders are 4-0 ATS at home this season, covering the spread by an average of 11 points per game.