Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Bets: Picks Include Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Others

Our top Steelers vs. Bills player prop bets include picks for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and others.

According to the betting odds for this Wild Card matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills, the home team is expected to win by double digits in a very low-scoring game.

With the largest point spread and lowest total of the weekend, how should that change your approach to making your player prop bets?

Let’s check out our favorite Steelers vs. Bills player prop bets.

Top Steelers vs. Bills Player Prop Bets

Mason Rudolph Over 16.5 Completions (-120 at DraftKings)

Katz: Trying to handicap this game is difficult, but in times of chaos, value can sometimes be found where you least expect it. The total for this game reflects the pessimism in terms of offensive success, and that makes logical sense, but I’m in the business of trying to pick off a few props that have over-adjusted.

Last week in New England, we had the Jets and Patriots square off in a game that had no playoff ramifications and similarly poor weather conditions. Both teams were motivated just to end their seasons and go home.

The Patriots trailed by one possession for 12 of their 15 drives. They were playing from behind, but they were more competitive than the spread suggests the Steelers will be this week. In that game, Bailey Zappe fired 30 passes.

If Mason Rudolph flirts with that number, I like our chances. Zappe only completed 12 of those passes, but that was in part due to a 10.6 aDOT that didn’t make much sense given the conditions (he was 6 of 8 when throwing short to running backs and 6 of 22 on all other throws).

Rudolph has posted a 7.1 aDOT this season in his starts, a pattern of passing that has allowed him to complete 74.6% of his attempts. With the Bills ranking ninth in pressure rate, the fact that they own the second-lowest opponent aDOT isn’t a surprise.

Buffalo encourages dump-off passes, and Pittsburgh is likely to take them – it might just be optimal for both sides. The Bills know that they are unlikely to bleed to death via 1,000 paper cuts, while the Steelers know that if they want to pull off the upset, sustaining drives is likely their best bet.

The beauty about basing two-thirds of this SGP on the Steelers pass game is that I’m not worried about the game script. If you had to allocate the percentage chance of each of the three possible outcomes, what would they be?

  1. Bills win in a blowout
  2. Close game with neither team separating
  3. Steelers win in a blowout

For me, the first two outcomes account for at least 90% of the likelihood, and those are both supporting this ticket.

Mason Rudolph’s Longest Completion Under 30.5 Yards (-122 at FanDuel)

Blewis: I will also be making a player prop bet on Mason Rudolph, but in an entirely different direction.

In three games as the Steelers’ starting quarterback to end the season, Rudolph has nine attempts for 20+ yards downfield and has completed four of them for a completion percentage of 44.4%. This has come against two terrible defenses in the Bengals and Seahawks, as well as the Ravens’ backups.

If you have watched or remember these big pass plays to George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, then you’ll know that a big chunk of the yardage came after the catch.

MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket

This is not sustainable, especially against a Bills defense that only allowed two completions of 30+ yards during their five-game winning streak against the season (to Kevin Harris and Jalen Reagor of all people). I’m betting on regression coming for Rudolph and this passing attack, especially in the form of explosive plays.

Another huge factor here is the weather forecast. Despite the game being postponed, there could be residual effects of the snowstorm engulfing western New York. That certainly plays in the favor of the under for a passing props.

Diontae Johnson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Soppe: If the Black and Gold are moving the ball through the short pass, Diontae Johnson is in a spot to assume the alpha target earner role. Despite a more conservative target tree than George Pickens, Johnson has showcased the ability to make chunk plays (25+ yard catch in six of his past seven games), giving him a nice skill set for a low yardage total.

The belief in Johnson is partly a bet on rational coaching. The Bills are the heavy favorite for a reason, and if they can stop the Steelers from making the huge plays, they have to like their chances. That train of thought leads me to think that they make Pickens (last two games: 11 catches for 326 yards with a 15.0 aDOT) the target of their rapidly improving defense.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115 at BetMGM)

Katz: Josh Allen has officially entered the prime Derrick Henry phylum. What I mean by that is if you get him to score a touchdown at even money or better, it’s an auto bet.

Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 12 out of 17 games this season, with two of the five in which he didn’t score coming in the first two weeks of the season. Since then, Allen has not gone consecutive games without running one in himself. Allen did not rush for a touchdown last week.

The Buffalo Bills are double-digit home favorites against a Pittsburgh Steelers team they should smash. With bad weather projected, I’m expecting a lot of Allen scrambles. Given that it’s the playoffs, there will be no concerns about protecting Allen. When they get near the goal line, it will be Allen’s job to punch it in. He’s scoring this week.

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Under 22.5 Yards (-115 at BetRivers)

Katz: After openly acknowledging Stefon Diggs’ lack of usage ahead of last week’s game against the Miami Dolphins, the star receiver had his best game in over two months. But amidst his seven receptions for 87 yards, there were still no downfield connections.

On the season, Diggs has just 10 catches of 20+ yards. But here’s the kicker. Not one of them occurred in December (or January).

In a game with a low projected point total in bad weather, this isn’t the spot where Diggs is suddenly going to break free for a deep one. If he takes a screen or breaks a tackle on a curl, so be it. That’s the only way I see us losing this.

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