This matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills has the highest point spread of NFL Wild Card Weekend and the lowest total of just 35.5 points. But despite the expectations of this Steelers vs. Bills game to be low scoring, who are the best touchdown scorer bets to kick off Monday’s NFL playoff action?
Steelers vs. Bills Best Touchdown Scorer Bets
Josh Allen (+115 at BetMGM)
Katz: Josh Allen has officially entered the prime Derrick Henry phylum. What I mean by that is if you get him to score a touchdown at even money or better, it’s an auto bet.
Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 12 out of 17 games this season, with two of the five in which he didn’t score coming in the first two weeks of the season. Since then, Allen has not gone consecutive games without running one in himself. Allen did not rush for a touchdown last week.
The Bills are double-digit home favorites against a Steelers team they should absolutely smash. With bad weather projected, I’m expecting a lot of Allen scrambles.
Given that it’s the playoffs, there will be no concerns about protecting Allen. When they get near the goal line, it will be Allen’s job to punch it in. He’s scoring this week.
Josh Allen 2+ Touchdowns (+650 at FanDuel)
Blewis: I completely agree with Katz, but I’m going to take it one step further.
Josh Allen has reached Jalen Hurts-like efficiency in scoring rushing touchdowns, yet his odds are considerably more favorable on a weekly basis.
Inside the 5-yard line, Allen has more than three times as many rushing attempts than James Cook this season and three more than Latavius Murray. Just like the Eagles, the Bills’ best short-yardage runner also happens to play quarterback.
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Given the expected weather conditions in Buffalo, I’m not expecting either team to have explosive passing plays, which should lead to more opportunities for Allen near the goal line.
The Bills have leaned on Allen more as a runner as the season progressed, and he has scored two or more rushing touchdowns in two of his previous three games.
Leonard Fournette (+550 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Playoff Lenny time?! In all seriousness, there are a couple of reasons why I like this long-shot play.
For one, the Bills don’t utilize James Cook much near the goal line, as he only has four carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Secondly, with a double-digit point spread and the Steelers missing their best player in T.J. Watt, this has blowout potential, which means a potential opportunity for Leonard Fournette to score in garbage time.
Jaylen Warren (+350 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The weather is going to be the discussion point for this game, and as that narrative is built up, the Anytime Touchdown market becomes more interesting. As the volume of the snow/wind/cold conditions is turned up, the projected point total falls down, thus elevating the odds across the board.
I’m not here to say that Warren is a good bet to usurp Najee Harris as the lead back, but his versatility makes him an interesting play. The average touchdown pass against the Bills this season was 9.4 yards, a mark that wasn’t just the lowest in the league by a wide margin; it was the lowest number for a regular season since the 2012 San Francisco 49ers.
Warren has caught at least four balls in five straight games, and by averaging 10 carries per game over the past month, he has given us a few ways to pay off this ticket. Harris will handle the goal-line carries, and that is why we are getting the number on Warren that we are, but if Pittsburgh scores from outside of the 5-yard line, their complimentary back is live to pay off a nice ticket!
Najee Harris (+175 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: Harris has now found the end zone four times in the last three weeks as the Steelers have seemingly doubled down on their run game. In the last three weeks, he has carried the ball 72 times, including close to as many red-zone opportunities in that timespan and the entire season.
Despite the game being postponed, Monday’s matchup could still be naturally run-heavy if the weather forecast for Buffalo is correct. Therefore, we could see both Harris and Warren touching the ball plenty. Scoring in that weather will not be easy, but I expect at least one of them finds the end zone. At their current odds, you can bet both and profit regardless of which one scores.
Steelers Defense (+900 at DraftKings)
Bearman: I already picked the under in this game, so I don’t expect a lot of scoring with two really good defenses, a struggling Steelers, and not to mention really bad weather.
I am going to go for a long shot here and pick the Steelers’ defense for a few reasons. For one, they have the third-most takeaways in the league this season. Secondly, Josh Allen is a turnover machine. Lastly, weird things happen when the Steelers are involved, including them making the playoffs while having a negative point differential and being outgained in 75% of their games this season.
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