Davante Adams is on the short list of players in fantasy football who are matchup and situation-proof. As encouraging as his continued dominance is for managers who bought the “dip” this summer, both starting running backs in this game have yet to deliver. What does it mean moving forward?
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Davante Adams: Tier 1 Fantasy Receiver
Remember when Adams left Green Bay, and we wondered if his production would be the same sans Aaron Rodgers?
Remember when his college buddy Derek Carr left Vegas this summer for New Orleans, leaving Adams with his third new quarterback in as many years?
Yea, none of it matters. Here is his fantasy production through three games this season compared to what he put together last season and where he stood at this point during the best season of his career (2020).
- First three games of 2023: 62.7 fantasy points
- First three games of 2022: 45.4
- First three games of 2020: 48.8
Don’t be surprised if Adams’ name is near the top of the list at the end of the season when we look at which players were most common on champion fantasy teams.
Davante Adams caught 9 of 11 targets for 108 yards & 2 TD on 19 routes against single-high coverages.
Adams has 2 more TD receptions (10) against single-high coverages than any other receiver since joining the Raiders in 2022.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 25, 2023
Josh Jacobs: Bust Season Continues
Remember that 86-yard walk-off touchdown in overtime against the Seahawks last November? That was the last time Jacobs had a carry gain more than 20 yards — that was over 300 days ago!
Without much per-carry upside, Jacobs’ range of outcomes is a tight one, and that not only makes a repeat of his breakout 2022 impossible, but it lowers his floor to the point where he can begin to cost you matchups.
Could he be a buy-low candidate? If so, now is the time to bounce. He gets the Chargers leaky run defense next week before playing three of four games against the defense-is-optional NFC North.
I lean toward this course of action given that his role seems safe and that if the Raiders are going to succeed, it’ll be because they get their lead back on track.
Najee Harris: How Secure Is His Role?
While it appears clear that Jaylen Warren has more juice than Harris, the Steelers seem to be committed to him. This offense isn’t offering up a ton of scoring opportunities, thus increasing the need for efficiency to return fantasy value.
Good luck with that. Harris went over 65 rushing yards just once in his first eight games last season, and he’s 0 for 3 to open 2023. Even worse? The role in the passing game is all but gone as this team looks to develop Kenny Pickett as a field stretcher.
As a rookie, Harris caught 74 balls, and we thought we had a three-down fantasy monster for years to come. We thought wrong. Last season, he saw only 53 targets, and so far this season, he is averaging one foot per target. Not one yard. One foot.
Harris is outside of my top 20 at the position moving forward, though I’m not sure this coaching staff will give Warren the lead role unless he produces at such a level that he is impossible to ignore.
This feels like a very, very poor man’s version of past Dallas teams that insisted on Ezekiel Elliott over Tony Pollard. Those Cowboys team moved the ball well enough to support fantasy value. This Steelers team isn’t even close to doing that right now, and that makes playing either a tough ask, even against the Texans in Week 4.
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