“Fake it until you make it” is something that is often said. The idea being that if you act like you know what you’re doing, eventually you will. In some walks of life, this works, but fantasy football is a different beast.
Participating in, or at least consuming the results of, a Superflex mock draft is the best way to prepare for this unique setup. Most of us believe that we can walk into a draft room and figure things out on the fly, but from roster construction to new player values, winning managers think out a plan ahead of time and look to execute.
With that in mind, here are the results of a recent draft, complete with player breakdowns through the first two rounds and why the selections were made.
2024 PPR Superflex Mock Draft | PPR
1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Shuffle up and deal with the elite quarterbacks however you’d like. It’s irresponsible, in my opinion, to open a Superflex draft with anything besides a signal-caller at 1.01. The stability of the position is second to none, and with needing two of them, why not lock in a top-tier option when given the chance?
In drafting a QB first overall, you not only get the strong weekly production with the narrowest range of outcomes, but you also open yourself up to reading the draft board in the coming rounds.
Many managers will feel the pressure of needing to reach on a second quarterback, but you’re afforded the luxury of waiting if you so choose because you took on essentially no risk when filling your QB1 slot.
As for Jalen Hurts himself, the addition of Saquon Barkley is more additive to this offense as a whole than he is a threat to subtract in a major way from his quarterback’s statistical bottom line. Hurts’ carry count could fall a touch, but the quality of each figure to rise due to the defensive attention his All-Pro running back will demand.
Hurts nearly had more red-zone rush attempts (43) than pass attempts (50) in 2023. And until the NFL finds a way to slow him down in close, his short-yardage rushing production is the single safest aspect of fantasy football and has allowed him to lead the position with 13 games of 25+ fantasy points over the past two seasons.
We can fight as to who the best QB is at this spot, but don’t get cute and move off of the position at the top of the board. Please.
1.02) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Worry not about a down 2023. The numbers were down, but I’d argue that you should be encouraged.
Wait, what?
Patrick Mahomes showcased the ability to use his mind as a weapon. The best way for the Chiefs to win games last season wasn’t for him to put up video game numbers, and he fell in line. That hurt fantasy managers, but it could help in a major way in 2024.
Gone is L’Jarius Sneed and added have been a pair of field stretchers (Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy). Kansas City’s path to a three-peat figures to look a bit different, which should result in a bounce-back campaign.
I’m talking as if Mahomes sunk your team last season. For a sixth straight season, he cleared 4,000 passing yards, and for a fourth straight, he racked up 300+ yards on the ground.
Assuming that the Chiefs’ deep drop rate (6.8%, second highest in the league) trends closer to average, Mahomes’ name will be back atop leaderboards on a weekly basis.
1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Would you believe me if putting Josh Allen as QB3 is a hot take?
It’s true. The King of the North has finished each of the past four seasons as a top-two producer at the position, a run of dominance that is in the rarest of territory.
That said, that stretch conveniently started the season when Stefon Diggs came over from the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran, along with Gabe Davis, is no longer there to help elevate Allen as a passer, and that level of change is enough for me to slide him into the back end of my top tier at the position.
The way I have this projected is for Allen to potentially struggle early as he looks to develop a connection with his new running mates. Normally, I wouldn’t have a problem with a late-season peak, but will the schedule allow for that?
- Week 13 vs. 49ers
- Week 16 vs. Patriots
- Week 17 vs. Jets
All of those are home games, but they’re tough matchups, and I’m lukewarm about whether Buffalo’s pass game will be explosive enough to stabilize Allen’s value enough when your season is on the line.
1.04) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular-season games with the Niners.
Over that stretch, he’s averaged 38.5% more PPR points per game than any other running back (minimum 20 games played) — a gap that is hard to comprehend.
McCaffrey’s versatility gives him a floor that is unheard of. He’s the one member of San Francisco’s offense I’m least worried about statistically should Brock Purdy experience the near-inevitable regression.
1.05) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy’s top-scoring receiver from 2023 is the clear alpha for the highest-scoring team in the league that figures to continue to commit to the passing game at as high a rate as anyone.
The argument for CeeDee Lamb is simple — elite ceiling and elite floor.
Lamb had more receptions than all but 17 players had targets last season, and there’s really no reason to think 2024 looks any different. Dallas’ star has improved his fantasy points per target, yards per route, and target share numbers during all four of his seasons. That growth will eventually level off, but he’s at the point now where a repeat performance is plenty acceptable.
I have Brandin Cooks penciled in for some serious regression, and if that is accurate, the upside here only grows. Invest with the utmost confidence in all formats.
1.06) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The reigning MVP has seen his fantasy points per pass improve in consecutive seasons. Not bad for a running back, right?
Lamar Jackson may never be Mahomes when it comes to throwing the ball, but it’s impossible to overlook his development.
In 2023, a career-high 69.2% of Jackson’s fantasy points were earned through the air. That speaks to the offensive mind of Todd Monken and should provide you with confidence that he can produce at an elite level, even with Derrick Henry’s addition this offseason.
Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely are a pair of young pieces who could take a serious step forward in Year 2 under Monken, creating a fantasy profile for Jackson that is without holes.
1.07) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill mentioned Jaylen Waddle as the future of the position in Miami, and while I believe that, the future isn’t now. I like Waddle plenty, but this is Hill’s show, and until the NFL as a whole proves capable of stopping him from making splash plays, we have to assume that there simply is no answer for the man they call Cheetah.
From a football nerd’s point of view, Hill is an interesting test case in the impact of scheme. He’s seen his slot usage dip in a meaningful way since joining the ‘Fins, but his target rate when he ends up there has skyrocketed. The pre-snap motion that Miami runs is essentially a magnet that is attracted to mismatches; it detects the deficiency and then clings to it.
This is an offense that is smarter than most. It’s using a chess piece in Hill that needs little space to flip the field.
1.08) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
The super sophomore is top three in betting markets in terms of favorites to lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season, optimism that is difficult to dismiss.
After a historic rookie campaign, C.J. Stroud now has access to veteran skill-position players (Joe Mixon and Diggs) in addition to a pair of budding stars (Nico Collins and Tank Dell).
Potentially worrisome for Houston bettors is the fact that this defense was fourth worst on a per-pass basis, but that’s good news for fantasy investors. Stroud is going to be leaned on heavily, which gives him the chance to put his name among the elite at the position.
Stroud has said this offseason that he wants to stretch the field more this year. That coming from a player who saw 41.9% of his passing fantasy points come on deep throws (highest among QBs to finish in the top 25 at the position) is enough for some to think that he could replicate Mahomes’ second NFL season (5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns).
That’s a little aggressive for me, but the fact that the conversation can be had should give you conscience in building a winner around Stroud.
1.09) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
If we had the opportunity to build a fantasy quarterback in a lab, it would resemble Anthony Richardson. In fact, it might come up short in some of the measurables because we love competition and would fear that creating such a player would be too much of a cheat code.
He’s Josh Allen, but with a 40-yard dash time that is 6.7% faster. He’s Justin Fields, but 15-20 pounds heavier.
Richardson might be what Daunte Culpepper would have been if he were born 25 years later and went through the same training programs. And guess what? Culpepper was QB1 in Years 2-4, and it wasn’t close (5.3% more ppg than QB2 and 12.8% more than QB3).
I’m not setting the bar that high due to the depth of the position and the slanted rules these days, but much like Victor Wembanyama in the NBA, we could be looking at a player who makes us question how our fantasy game is played/scored.
Last season, Richardson became the first rookie with multiple games where he did all of the following since Robert Griffin in 2012: 200 pass yards, 10 rush attempts, and a rush TD.
That stat would be impressive if I left it there with zero context. But let’s not forget that he appeared in just four games and made it to the finish line just twice.
There’s some risk that comes with drafting any player with this little professional experience in the first round. Yet, there might be more risk taken on by letting your opponents draft Richardson.
1.10) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson was featured in my bold predictions article for a ceiling that is nothing short of historic, and I believe it. There were five times during Robinson’s rookie season, in a vanilla offense, in which he had multiple 10+ yard carries while also running at least 25 routes.
McCaffrey is a generational player, and there’s no guarantee that another version of him will emerge as he ages. But Robinson has as good a stake in the claim as “next” as anyone in the league.
What we saw from Robinson last season might go down in history as something of a floor. His fantasy points per target and rush were nothing more than ordinary when comparing him to the 49 qualified running backs. Assuming that the touch count stays high, there’s a chance he’s as valuable as any player picked in Round 1.
You're on the clock. Who are you taking? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/ESLP7bhOXK
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 12, 2024
1.11) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
There are 32 teams in the NFL. Breece Hall played every game last season.
Both of those things are true, and yet, Hall ranked 34th at the position in red-zone touches in 2023.
Throw a dart at an offensive leaderboard, and the Jets were bottom three last season (red-zone drives, yards per game, yards per play, third-down conversion rate, etc.). No matter your thoughts on Aaron Rodgers, a repeat performance is unlikely to happen.
How high Hall rises up your ranks depends on your confidence level in New York’s offense as a whole. I’m reasonably bullish, and that is how he sneaks into the first round here. But even if you’re not, he’s not getting past the middle of Round 2.
There’s slightly more offensive risk in New York than in Atlanta, which gives Robinson the slight edge in my rankings. That said, it’s close, and both are foundational pieces that you can rely on in a major way.
1.12) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is the final dual-threat quarterback who could lead the position in scoring this season. Of course, there are injury concerns to overcome, given his size and the potential for a learning curve as this young offense develops. However, if you’re playing to win your league, you’re looking for elite form down the stretch, and that is very much possible.
Murray was QB4 in 2020 — his only season where both he and his star WR1 were healthy. He opened up that campaign with nine straight top-10 performances (six of which were top-five), and that’s the selling point: consistency.
An elite athlete at the position has the ability to own an elevated floor. That is even more true with a game-changing pass catcher — and we think Murray has two!
If you’re swinging big at the beginning of your Superflex draft, this is exactly the type of profile I want. Entering 2024, a healthy Murray, in my opinion, has a better chance of winning you your league than he does failing in a significant way.
2.01) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Most drafts work this way, with Lamb and Hill viewed as a tier of their own. I have it ranked that way as well, but that’s a range of outcomes thing. I label Ja’Marr’s Chase’s week-to-week upside on par with anyone at the position.
Chase is the sixth-highest-scoring receiver (PPR points per game) since entering the league and averages more points per target over that stretch (2.00) than Lamb. Investing in Chase is a pseudo bet on Joe Burrow’s health, which is the thought process in ranking him at the top of Tier 2 instead of being a part of Tier 1.
This is a Tier 1 talent.
2.02) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Remember when we weren’t sure if Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late-season spike was a flash in the pan or not? I think it’s safe to say those times are in the past and that Detroit has one of the premier talents in the game.
PPR PPG Since St. Brown’s Breakout in Week 13, 2021
- Justin Jefferson: 21.1
- Tyreek Hill: 20.2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
- Cooper Kupp: 19.6
- CeeDee Lamb: 19.6
St. Brown has posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28%, and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone.
St. Brown can get open in a phone booth. It’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations.
2.03) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
From a process standpoint, in the second round of a Superflex league, I’m taking a QB under the age of 30 who was QB4 during his Year 2-3 stretch and largely returns the same roster.
That’s the situation we find ourselves in with Burrow. And as long as all health hurdles are cleared come draft day, he’s a solid buy. During that 2021-22 run, he had multiple touchdown passes in 22 of 32 games and led the league in passer rating.
Visual at how the #FantasyFootball landscape has shifted in terms of QB scoring over the past decade. These lists are sorted by the top PPG QBs in the respective 5-year samples (per @TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/ayRlMJllrX
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 26, 2024
The ability to rack up points on the ground is becoming closer than mandated than a “nice to have” at the QB position.
Burrow has the ability to ascend above that due to the big-play nature of his receivers. However, don’t lose track of the fact that he ran for five touchdowns in his last healthy season.
2.04) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
I’m happy to make the argument in a redraft, 1QB league that Barkley is deserving of first-round consideration. With Hurts’ unique skill set, Philadelphia spreads out defenses via shotgun snaps, a tendency that should work well given how good we’ve seen Barkley be in space.
Since 2021, offenses with 70% of first-down snaps in shotgun
- 2021 Eagles: 73%
- 2022 Eagles: 72%
- 2023 Eagles: 70%
That’s the entire list. Barkley’s Giants didn’t clear 50% in any of his three seasons since his ACL tear in 2020, but they did trend up over that stretch. It helped him total 1,242 yards and 10 scores in 14 games while playing for the third-worst scoring offense in the league.
At 27 years old, it’s fair to think that Barkley could be at the peak of his powers as he joins the best offense he’s been a part of. The time to buy an elite talent at a minor discount is right now.
2.05) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles on consecutive picks? You bet.
Your gut reaction may be that a bet on Barkley is one against A.J. Brown, but both players can return a profit for fantasy managers.
Generally speaking, averaging 16 PPR ppg is a strong season for Flex players. We saw 21 players get there last season. Four offenses (49ers, Dolphins, Rams, and Lions) produced nine of those players, with three (Buccaneers, Bengals, and Colts) just missing.
Brown saw his target share increase in his second season with the Eagles and increased his end-zone target count for a fourth consecutive season. He, along with the rest of Philadelphia’s offense, trailed off at the end of last season, which resulted in no real playoff success for fantasy teams that were counting on the team’s WR1. However, I think physical limitations of Hurts over that stretch were to blame.
Brown’s historical consistency to open last season (six straight games with 125+ receiving yards) is more encouraging than his December was concerning. The 27-year-old remains the alpha target earner in an elite offense that I want to have a piece of.
I like Barkley a lot, but that’s not stopping me from investing high-end draft capital in Brown.
2.06) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
The reigning passing champion is as safe as it gets due to the talent that insulates him in Miami. In addition to a pair of star receivers, the Dolphins now have more potential at the tight end position (Jonnu Smith) and added another track star to their backfield (Jaylen Wright).
Splash plays are fluky until they aren’t. In the same way that the peak Golden State Warriors defied logic for most teams, this Dolphins team is built for the big plays. Tua Tagovailoa had eight games last season with a 35+ yard touchdown pass, the most such games in a single season over the past eight years.
This is a rare offense and one that you can count on for weekly production from the quarterback position.
2.07) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Even in a 2023 season that was disjointed due to injuries, Jonathan Taylor kept doing what Jonathan Taylor does — find paydirt.
He enters this year having scored in six straight games, a run that saw him reach 18 carries five times. The volume and talent aren’t in question; if Richardson can elevate this to a top-10 offense, a vintage JT season is possible.
It feels like a while ago, but don’t forget that Taylor led the position in PPR points during his first two seasons, delivering production that was 21.7% over expectation based on where his touches took place.
Taylor isn’t going to come cheap this season, but this could look like a discount come August 2025.
2.08) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Detroit’s backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- David Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be the Lions’ top option in close (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of inciting.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rushing touchdowns and 50 receptions since 2000.
Detroit’s offense has more options than Atlanta or New York, which is what keeps Gibbs’ mean projection below that of Robinson and Hall. Nevertheless, there is certainly a path for him to produce at a Tier 1 level this season.
2.09) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is symbolic of how fantasy managers have to look at the game differently than casual NFL fans. Ask Joe from accounting or cousin Suzy about their impression of Dallas’ QB, and you’re going to get an answer that sounds something like: “Do it in the playoffs.”
There’s nothing wrong with that take, it just doesn’t matter for us. Prescott had seven weeks last season in which he produced top-three QB numbers, as the sheer volume of attempts made him a weekly asset. Why would we expect that to change?
The RB position remains underwhelming, while Prescott has access to one of the best receivers in the game and an upward-trending tight end. After the Cowboys travel to San Francisco in Week 8, they play nothing but defenses that they can exploit in a major way.
Dallas could lead the league in scoring again, and if that’s the case, this manager is getting a bargain.
2.10) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The talent is second to none. Justin Jefferson is the standard for production through four NFL seasons, and he proved it again last year by finishing fourth at the position in yards per route run despite injuries to both him and Kirk Cousins. That ranked him ahead of Lamb and St. Brown, who both had career seasons.
That said, we are nitpicking at the top of the position, and it’s impossible to overlook the uncertainty under center.
For purposes of this exercise, I’m going to assume that it’s J.J. McCarthy who leads Minnesota in passes thrown. If that proves inaccurate, the overall point remains because of what we’ve seen from Sam Darnold up to this point in his career.
Last season, it took 20 PPR points per game to be a top-five receiver, and that’s largely been the case over the past three seasons. (If you want your name to rank among the very elite, that’s the level you have to produce at.)
Over those three seasons, just 15.1% of the times in which a receiver has seen 5+ targets from a rookie has he reached that threshold. Remove the quarterbacks with top-five pick draft capital (McCarthy was No. 1o overall), and the rate drops to 12.7%.
Jefferson is a unique breed and is plenty capable of any trend I put in his way. But yes, the floor is different this year than years past, and that’s enough of a reason to drop him a little lower than may feel comfortable.
2.11) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
We are slowly shifting from the “volume is king” mantra that has driven fantasy analysis for more than a decade to “versatility is king.” Regardless of the position, the ability to rack up points in a variety of ways is becoming more of a mandate than a “nice to have.”
Henry is the exception.
There were 23 running backs with more receptions last season than Henry has ever had in an NFL season, and it simply doesn’t matter. We’re talking about a bulldozing running back with 10+ rushing scores in six straight seasons who is entering an offense that saw Gus Edwards punch in 13 TDs in Monken’s first season in charge of it.
The reflex for a pounding back like this is to pencil in a dip in production as the long season wears on. That’s a fine reflex on the whole, but again, Henry is not the norm.
Over the past two seasons, 69.2% of his 20-point efforts have come in Week 8 or later, proving to us that defenses are more likely to tire than The King.
2.12) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Winners don’t make excuses. That idea was drilled into me as a child athlete, and I agree with it.
But what if it sounds like an excuse despite being 100% fact?
Garrett Wilson having yet to finish a season inside the top 30 at the position (PPR) is because of his quarterback play. That’s not an excuse. I’m not here to tell you that vintage Rodgers is going to be taking center in New York, but his floor, as long as he’s on the field, is significantly higher than the mean that Wilson has been subjected to up to this point.
Of the 59 qualified receivers last season in PPR points per target:
57. Garrett Wilson: 1.29
58. Robert Woods: 1.18
59. Jonathan Mingo: 1.00
The WR average last season was 1.79. If we correct Wilson to just league average, that’s an additional 84 fantasy points and makes him WR7 last season in terms of points per game. Better than Brown and Chase, two other alpha target earners that have similar physical tools but also have had the benefit of the doubt in terms of QB play.
That’s the class Wilson deserves to be considered with, and finishing inside the top five at the position is within the range of outcomes.
2024 PPR Superflex Mock Draft Rounds 3-6
3.01) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
3.02) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
3.03) Jordan Love, QB, GB
3.04) Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
3.05) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
3.06) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.07) Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX
3.08) Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
3.09) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
3.10) Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.11) Brock Purdy, QB, SF
3.12) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
4.01) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
4.02) Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
4.03) Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
4.04) Davante Adams, WR, LV
4.05) Jared Goff, QB, DET
4.06) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
4.07) Drake London, WR, ATL
4.08) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
4.09) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
4.10) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
4.11) James Conner, RB, ARI
4.12) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
5.01) James Cook, RB, BUF
5.02) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
5.03) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
5.04) Rachaad White, RB, TB
5.05) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
5.06) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
5.07) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
5.08) Mike Evans, WR, TB
5.09) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
5.10) Zamir White, RB, LV
5.11) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
5.12) Brian Robinson Jr., RB, WAS
6.01) Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
6.02) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
6.03) Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
6.04) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
6.05) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
6.06) Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
6.07) Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
6.08) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
6.09) Evan Engram, TE, JAX
6.10) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
6.11) Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
6.12) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI