Should You Take the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 of Your Survivor Pool?

CINCINNATI – The Cincinnati Bengals are nine-point favorites against the New England Patriots on Sunday, making them the biggest favorites on the board in Week 1.

No other team is favored by more than six, which is where the Buffalo Bills (home vs. the Arizona Cardinals) and Seattle Seahawks (home vs. the Denver Broncos) sit.

Not surprisingly, the Bengals are the top pick in most survivor pools, with some reporting more than 75% of the entrants riding with Zac Taylor, Joe Burrow, and Co., regardless of Ja’Marr Chase’s status.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals a Safe Week 1 Pick in Survivor Pools?

Should you follow the trend and use your first pick on the biggest sure thing available to kick off your pool, or should you be wary?

There is plenty of history to suggest the latter.

Let’s start with the Bengals themselves. The team has lost four of its last five season openers and two of three at home.

The only Week 1 victory in the Taylor era came in 2021, when Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook fumbled with 1:48 remaining in overtime and his team in field goal range.

It was one of only two fumbles he lost all season. And even with that on the positive side of the ledger, Cincinnati has a negative-six turnover differential in season openers under Taylor.

Would you feel differently about picking the Bengals if they were -7 and riding a five-game losing streak in season openers?

But if we expand our view from outside of Cincinnati, history suggests taking the biggest favorite on the board is a solid play.

Since 2000, the biggest favorite in Week 1 has been a safe pick 20 out of 24 times (and 16 of 18 when the spread has been at least nine points, as it is for Bengals-Patriots).

The lone exceptions:

• The 2022 Bengals were seven-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers and lost 23-20 in overtime (are we making the case for or against at this point?).
• The 2022 Indianapolis Colts also were seven-point favorites and made losers of those who picked them, finishing in a 20-20 tie with the Houston Texans.
• The 2018 New Orleans Saints lost as 10-point favorites to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, falling 48-40.
• The 2007 Jacksonville Jaguars were seven-point favorites and lost to the Tennessee Titans 13-10.
• The 2003 Miami Dolphins were gigantic, 14-point favorites against Houston and fell 21-20.

Are you sensing a theme?

Four of those five outliers involved divisional opponents upsetting a heavily favored rival.

But that’s not in play with Bengals-Patriots.

Another data point that suggests Cincinnati is a safe pick involves the head coaches.

READ MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 1 Strategy

The five teams that sprung upsets as the biggest underdogs on the board in Week 1 all were guided by experienced head coaches, whereas Jerrod Mayo will be making his NFL head coaching debut against the Bengals.

• Dom Capers was in his second season as the first coach in Texans history, but 2002 was his sixth overall as a head coach.
• Jeff Fisher was in his 13th season as Tennessee’s head coach when he upset the Jaguars in 2007.
• Dirk Koetter was the least experienced of the bunch, but he was in his third season with Tampa Bay for the upset of New Orleans in 2018.
• Mike Tomlin was in his 16th season with Pittsburgh for the stunner against the Bengals in 2022.
• And Lovie Smith was in his first season with Houston but 12th as a head coach overall when he directed the tie against Indianapolis in 2022.