Should You Start Russell Wilson vs. Colts? Fantasy Outlook for Broncos Quarterback

What is Russell Wilson's fantasy football outlook for Week 5, and should managers be looking to start him in both Superflex and 1QB formats?

Russell Wilson’s fantasy football output to start the 2022 NFL season has not been what managers expected when they drafted him this year. Therefore, somewhat surprisingly, questions have started to creep in about whether Wilson is a player you should start or sit in Week 5 on Thursday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts. Let’s examine the matchup and what other options fantasy managers might have elsewhere this week.

Russell Wilson’s Fantasy Outlook for Week 5

Through the first four weeks, Wilson ranks 13th at the QB position in terms of points per game, with 16.23. However, if you remove Zach Wilson and his one-game sample size, then Wilson actually creeps inside the top 12 for the 2022 season. That is a big shift for Wilson, who had a big performance against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4 to boost his numbers for the season.

Entering last week, Wilson was averaging just 12.64 fantasy points per game, with a high of 17.8 and a low of 9.06. In Week 4, Wilson threw for 237 yards with three touchdowns. He also added 29 yards and a touchdown with his legs, boosting his fantasy point output over the 20-point mark.

MORE: Week 5 Fantasy RB Start/Sit Includes Melvin Gordon 

That rushing touchdown was just Wilson’s eighth such score since the beginning of the 2018 season. Additionally, he is on pace for just 55.3 rushing attempts this season, which would be a career low when Wilson played a full season. Although, it is worth noting that 10 of his 13 rushing attempts have come in the past two weeks. Even so, it would be optimistic to expect Wilson to continue providing significant fantasy value with his legs.

The matchup for Wilson this week is nothing to be overly excited about. The Colts have allowed an average of 16.5 fantasy points to opposing QBs through the first four weeks. Additionally, the consistency of what they have allowed has been remarkable. Indianapolis has allowed opposing QBs to score between 14.38 and 18.50 in each of their four games this year.

Should Fantasy Managers Start Wilson in Week 5?

It is incredibly tough to choose to sit a player like Wilson after so much was expected of his coming into the season. Through the first four weeks, we have not seen this offense really settle. They just lost their lead RB in Javonte Williams, and the offensive line has the ninth-worst adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders. That instability makes Wilson a tough option for fantasy managers to trust right now.

The positive news in this matchup is that they are playing a defensive with the 10th-lowest adjusted rate (5.9 percent). Wilson’s best passing performance of the season came in Week 4 when facing a pass rush that has struggled to get sacks — the Raiders.

Therefore, there are a lot of positive signs for Wilson, especially if the absence of Williams forces this into more of an aerial attack. The Colts’ defensive front has been one of the best against the run, with the third-lowest adjusted line yards (3.45) and the third-highest stuff rate (26 percent).

Entering Thursday Night Football, Wilson is in starting consideration in 12-team 1QB leagues. He currently ranks 11th in PFN’s Week 5 QB fantasy rankings, with Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers narrowly above him. In Superflex leagues, it is hard to imagine managers having two better QB options to start this week than Wilson, so he should be a starting option in most Superflex formats this week.

FEATURED
PFN NEWSLETTER

Every day, get free NFL updates sent straight to your inbox!