The 2022 fantasy football season is underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Indianapolis Colts QB Matt Ryan’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value in their fantasy football drafts. Can the former Falcon lead the Colts to the promised land and become a valuable fantasy asset in the process?
Matt Ryan ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Wearing a different uniform for the first time in his career, Ryan enters the 2022 fantasy football season as the QB20 with an ADP of 166, placing him in the middle of the 14th round for most drafts. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Ryan is the QB21 with an overall ranking of 180.
Outside of Superflex or 2QB formats where positional scarcity comes into play, Ryan is not someone who should be drafted outside of maybe a backup role for fantasy if someone selected Deshaun Watson.
While I expect Ryan to put up consistent numbers weekly, the lack of rushing upside drastically reduces his ceiling even if he throws for around 4,000 yards in 2022. Barring a significant injury to Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis features a run-first offense that complements the passing game, not the other way around, which has become more of the norm in today’s game.
You certainly can do worse than Ryan, but in a 1QB league, even for the most die-hard late-round QB drafters, ending up with him as your starter likely means you waited a bit too long. If I’m waiting on the position, I’d rather take shots on players with more upside like Trey Lance or even Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr.
Matt Ryan’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Coming off a QB19 finish in 2021, it’s easy to dismiss Ryan, but I’m not sure that’s the correct approach. Yes, he was 30th in points per game at 13.1, but he was also 11th in passing yards (3,968) despite not having Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley. It broke a 10-year streak of passing for 4,000 yards or more. For more context on what was a decent season, Ryan faced pressure at the sixth-highest rate last year (40%).
That will not be a concern in Indianapolis, which boasts one of the league’s best offensive lines. His surrounding talent is also better. Sure, there’s no Kyle Pitts on this roster, but Michael Pittman Jr. is a legitimate WR1, Alec Pierce is a potential draft day steal as a vertical threat, plus we have, for now, a healthy Parris Campbell who can thrive in the slot. Throw in Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods, and the Colts have length few teams can counter in the red zone.
I also expect head coach Frank Reich to make like easier on Ryan. Last year with Carson Wentz, the Colts were fifth in play-action rate and 10th in screen passes called. Expect both Taylor and Nyheim Hines to be focal points out of the backfield.
Ryan loses some fantasy appeal due to his lack of rushing, as he has yet to rush for 1,500 yards in his entire career. However, all the Colts are asking Ryan to be is what Philip Rivers was in 2020. A game manager who can pass for around 4,000 yards with a 2:1 or better TD-to-INT ratio and find a way to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In the right matchup, Ryan will have streaming appeal for fantasy in 2022. He’ll have weeks where he finishes inside the low-end QB1 range, but at any moment, Taylor can and likely will take over a game script. When taking on teams who struggle against the run, Ryan will take a backseat and slide in rankings.