The Los Angeles Rams shocked the world when they signed wide receiver Allen Robinson after winning a Super Bowl. Will Robinson produce enough to be on your fantasy football roster, and what is his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Allen Robinson ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Robinson’s current ADP is 62nd overall as the 24th wide receiver selected in fantasy drafts. This means he’s being taken in the sixth round of PPR leagues. Other players drafted in his range include Jerry Jeudy and Marquise Brown.
Robinson finished as WR21 and No. 48 overall in our 2022 wide receiver fantasy rankings. Clearly, our analysts believe Robinson is a major steal compared to where he’s being drafted. Robinson’s ADP is far too low, considering his fit with quarterback Matthew Stafford.
The Rams’ decision to replace Robert Woods with Robinson wasn’t only because Woods is coming off a torn ACL. Instead, it was a deliberate identification of a skill set we’ve seen Stafford produce a ton of success with previously. Robinson is a better version of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.
Of course, Cooper Kupp is still on the Rams, and he’ll command the bulk of targets and workload. But Robinson will be a devastating back-shoulder target on third downs and in the red zone. All we have to do is look at Stafford’s career history to see some of the more promising production.
Red-zone data only goes back to 2017, but it paints a promising picture for Robinson. Jones caught 30 passes for 19 touchdowns in the red zone from 2017-2020 with Stafford. Golladay caught 19 for 13 in that same time span.
Expect Robinson to be as efficient but with more volume each season than those two averaged. We could see 10 or more touchdowns from Robinson this season as the Rams continue to prioritize the passing game over the run.
Robinson’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Taking a receiver in the first six rounds means he’s expected to be a solid starter. Robinson can absolutely be that despite a shockingly poor 2021 campaign in Chicago. He’s in a position we’ve never seen him in before: a high-powered offense that will move its receivers around to manipulate defenses into obvious mismatches.
For as well as Kupp produced last year and could do it again, the Rams’ offense took off with Odell Beckham playing instead of Woods. Robinson isn’t like either of those players, instead offers a new skill set that is absolutely valuable. He can play as a boundary receiver who dominates on contested catches, win with intermediate route running, or be a power slot force.
This range of picks has several interesting receivers, but Robinson’s fantasy outlook is most promising outside of Courtland Sutton. We want the touchdown upside that few others in the entire NFL can offer. A season with double-digit scores would put Robinson at the end of the top 10 receivers, even if he somehow doesn’t crack 1,000 yards.
Taking a possible top-10 receiver in the 60s is a no-brainer. Robinson’s ADP has too much of his floor from last year baked into his price but not nearly enough of his more likely ceiling.