Should you select AJ Dillon in fantasy drafts?

As the 2022 NFL season rapidly approaches with the preseason underway, what is AJ Dillon's ADP, and does his projection match the cost on draft day?

The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into AJ Dillon’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Sitting in a prime position to be a massive contributor for the Packers, can Dillon become one of the best values in incoming fantasy football drafts?

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AJ Dillon ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?

As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Dillon currently has an ADP of 68, coming off the board as the RB26. For comparison, Aaron Jones (RB11), the expected No. 1 in the Packers’ backfield, is going around 49 picks sooner than Dillon (ADP 19).

In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Dillon is currently the RB21 with an ADP of 44, showing while he is close positionally to how drafts are going, there is far more confidence in his value among all positions. However, be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.

I fall more in line with PFN’s rankings. While they are a consensus, I have Dillon at RB20 and 46th overall. I don’t see him as a handcuff but rather someone with standalone value, even when Jones is active. If/when the time comes where Jones can’t go, Dillon would be in the RB1 conversation (top 12) for that week, assuming a favorable matchup.

Dillon, for the bulk of the summer and even earlier this month, was an autopick when he was sliding into the sixth round as my bailout RB3. While his ADP has risen, I don’t feel it’s asking too much still.

There is a significant drop-off in upside right in this area of the draft for RBs, making Dillon one of the best picks in this range. He’s a perfect RB3, but even as an RB2, I would have no issues when paired with a high-end first-round running back.

AJ Dillon’s projected fantasy value in 2022

It’s not like we haven’t seen Dillon succeed already. Just last year, with Jones playing in 15 games, he was the RB23 in PPR scoring while averaging 10.9 PPR/game. Recording 224 total opportunities, he was just 2.4 touches/game behind Jones (15.7). While Dillon did lead the team in rushing (187 carries for 803 yards), he was marginally behind in per-game attempts, with Jones averaging 11.4 to Dillon’s 11.

There also seems to be a misunderstanding in Dillon with the notion he lacks upside in PPR leagues. By no means is he Jones nor will he see 67% of the RB targets as Jones did last season, but Dillon is sneaky good, which only raises his floor.

Dillon caught 34 of 37 targets for 313 yards and two scores last season. That’s 4.54 PPR points per game and not something to just write off as nothing. Heck, it was more than Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Devin Singletary, and Melvin Gordon.

Throw in the fact that Dillon led the Packers in red-zone carries with 39 (Jones with 34), and you all of a sudden see a complete profile and everything you want in a running back for fantasy football.

In 2021, Dillon had three RB1 finishes, all coming when the Packers made a more concerted effort to get the ball in his hands. From Week 10 on, Dillon had the same amount of top-10 finishes (3) as Cook, Chubb, and Javonte Williams but more than Jones (1).

Due to the trade, which sent Davante Adams to the Raiders, and Jones likely more involved in the passing game, Dillon is looking at an even more significant workload. While I don’t believe he ends the season higher than Jones in PPR formats, I wouldn’t completely discount the possibility, either. Although it is a 1A/1B situation, Dillon is an RB2 than can be drafted as if he was an RB3 in most drafts.

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