Sheep Report: Weekly recap and NFL Week 16 sharp line movement

NFL Week 15 has come and gone, and it left a trail of profits for Pro Football Network’s betting team! In our second edition of the Sheep Report this week, we will be analyzing the success we had in Week 15. We will also look at some of the NFL Week 16 sharp line movement that has moved the betting odds and opening lines since our last report. Two huge divisional games are being bet on by the pros this week. The PFN betting team is up 33.25 units on the year.

NFL Week 16 betting odds and sharp line movement

Dallas Cowboys (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

This is it. The battle for NFC East champion comes down to this Week 16 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are coming into this game after disappointing seasons. Yes, one will make the playoffs, but with the powerhouses in the NFC this year, these two NFC East teams pale in comparison. The only reason either one of them will be in the playoffs is because every division winner is represented. Playoffs by default.

Nonetheless, they will be battling it out in Philidelphia after both teams are coming off big wins. Dallas snapped a 3-game losing skid last week with a crucial 44-21 blowout win over the Rams as 1-point dogs. The Eagles once left for dead, have won two in a row, most recently beating the Redskins 37-27 and covering the -6.5 in epic fashion on a last-second fumble recovery scoop and score.

This game opened as a pick ’em game. Then sharp money came in strong with 79% of the bets and 90% of the money coming in on Dallas. It makes sense, the Cowboys are 8-6 ATS and are plus 90 in point differential, averaging 27 PPG on offense and giving up 20.57 PPG on defense. Their record might not indicate it, but the team has been marching up and down on teams. They currently lead the NFL in offensive yards. The line moved to a -3, and then sharps came around on the Eagles to drive the number back down to -2.5. At anything under three, the sharps and public agree on the Cowboys. Then when the number hits three, the sharps like the Eagles.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are 5-9 ATS and plus 6 in point differential, averaging 23.86 PPG on offense and giving up 23.43 PPG on defense. The last time these two teams faced off this year, the Cowboys blew the Eagles out 37-10 at home.

Sharps have also leaned on the under, dropping the total down from 47.5 to 46.5. December divisional unders are 10-5 (67%) this season and 57% since 2003. I am going to lean with the sharps on the under, but join the herd and bet on the Cowboys -2.5.

Green Bay Packers (11-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-4)

Another huge divisional game here, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to the Minnesota Vikings with huge implications in the NFC North. The Packers lead the division and have clinched a playoff berth, but they haven’t looked impressive doing it. The Vikings, on the other hand, have yet to clinch a playoff spot and have been playing hard. They are coming off the destruction of the Los Angeles Chargers in a six turnover defensive performance.

The Vikings are 8-6 ATS and +119 in point differential, averaging 27 PPG on offense and giving up 18.5 PPG on defense. The Packers are 9-5 ATS and +47 in point differential, averaging 23.57 PPG on offense and giving up 20.21 PPG on defense. The massive difference in point differential is why the sharps are pounding this game.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 4-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets are taking the points with the Packers, but sharps have been betting Minnesota, pushing the line up to -4.5 or -5.

Obviously, this is the typical fade Kirk Cousins in a primetime matchup. Cousins hasn’t performed well in his career in big, important games. However, I will be going against the herd here and will join the sharps. Minnesota is the play. Green Bay has been fraudulent all season, and their run defense is in bad shape. Look for the Vikings to have a big game on the ground, and Cousins to limit his mistakes for them to get the win.

NFL Week 15 sharps win big

It is difficult to calculate precisely where sharp money is coming in on certain games. You need to follow the line carefully and look at a number of bets. However, some websites actually release numbers on sharp action. Here are the top sharp bets made in Week 15.

Bet	Percentage of Sharp Money
Houston Texans (+3) over Tennessee Titans	17%
New England Patriots (-10) over Cincinnati Bengals	10%
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) over Washington Redskins	10%
Oakland Raiders (-6.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars	9%

 

The sharps loved the Texans, Patriots, Eagles, and Raiders. Their biggest play was on the Texans as road underdogs against the suddenly surging Tennessee Titans. They were on the right side as that game wasn’t really close. The Texans controlled the ball most of the game, and when it mattered most, Ryan Tannehill made vital mistakes.

But, they didn’t win all of their games. The Oakland Raiders let everyone down, including their fans, in their last home game in their stadium before moving to Las Vegas. Oakland was leading for most of the game by double digits, but they came out lethargic in the second half. Whether it was because they knew they would never play in Oakland again, or because the team’s season is basically over, they allowed the Jaguars to storm back and win 20-16.

PFN’s Week 15 betting recap

As mentioned above, Week 15 was a profitable one. Our Against the Spread podcast hosts both brought in serious profits. Our Expert Handicapper was even on the week, and our Totals expert lost less than half a unit.

Week 15 results: +9.25 units
YTD: +33.25 units

Play of the week: Singling out one play that was the most impressive is usually not an easy task. This week, however, it is. Jason Sarney put a lot of confidence in one player, recommending a one unit play on Chris Carson to get two TDs in Seattle’s game against Carolina. It was a play with +410 odds and netted the team a cool $102.50.

Performance of the week: This week, the other podcast host Ryan Gosling went 8-1 in his picks for a six-unit profit. That brings the YTD numbers for the Against the Spread podcast to +12 units. Ryan rode the backs of Saquon Barkley and Carson to two big wins on their rushing yardage props. He was also able to save himself from the Oakland collapse by taking them in the first half.

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