The Pro Football Network’s betting team has continued to bring in lucrative returns for our All-Access members. Looking at our NFL Week 11 game picks recap, we see another profitable performance from our team. We’ve been able to capitalize with help from our very own OSM metric and film room. Like we said last week, the NFL is a fierce beast to bet on, but we continue to grind out profits. Things started off rocky, but like Kirk Cousins against the Denver Broncos, we rallied late! This brings our winning streak to three weeks in a row. Week 11 is now behind us, let us take a look at next weeks odds, and analyze two NFL Week 12 game picks previews. We already have two spots on the board that we will likely be placing wagers on!
Week 12 #NFL Lines
IND +3.5 @ HOU
TB +4 @ ATL
DEN +4 @ BUF
NYG (soon) @ CHI
PIT -6.5 @ CIN
MIA +10.5 @ CLE
CAR +9.5 @ NO
OAK -3 @ NYJ
SEA +1.5 @ PHI
DET -3.5 @ WAS
JAC +3 @ TEN
DAL +6.5 @ NE
GB +3 @ SF
BAL -3 @ LARhttps://t.co/K7GnEsgW1X 🏈
— MyBookieNFL (@MyBookie_NFL) November 19, 2019
PFN’s Week 11 NFL game picks recap
Whether it be on our Against the Spread podcast, numerous articles on the site, or our live Twitter plays, we will always do our best to bring profitable NFL picks to our subscribers. Sports betting is not easy, and we are here to ensure that you have all the information necessary to give you a chance to win. Here is our Week 11 NFL betting recap and a breakdown of how each handicapper did in their respective category.
Ben Rolfe: Totals Expert
After a few tough weeks, Ben continues to climb out of the hole and into the sunshine of positive units! At one point, he was nearly down double-digit units on the year, and he has impressively continued to battle back!
In Week 11, our Totals Expert rode the under train straight to the bank. He had a team total under on the Carolina Panthers, which was never in doubt off of a terrible performance from Kyle Allen. He doubled down in that game, with the full game total under 49.5. He also called the under in the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears game, which also was never even close. Both offenses continue to struggle down the stretch of the NFL season.
2019 Record: -4 units
Jason Sarney: The Prop Master
Last week, I said that our Prop Master is on what the gambling industry refer to as a “heater,” after this week, he is officially on fire! Jason once again led the team in profits and did so in style. He won his “Play-of-the-day” two-unit special with the over in Lamar Jackson touchdowns and went right back to the well with Devin Singletary. Singletary let him down the week prior, but this week was an easy over against the Miami Dolphins.
“Devin Singletary was featured last week and fell short. However, a matchup against the bottom five rushing defense of the Miami Dolphins can help in a rebound effort. Singletary will also be returning to where he played college ball, look for additional motivation to impress.”
His only real miss on the day was the connection he expected between Nick Foles and Dede Westbrook. He foresaw an immediate revival of their offseason chemistry, but instead, Foles looked to rookie D.J. Chark Jr. for most of the day. Jason continues to impress and bring in profit. He is proving that sometimes it is better to ignore point spreads, and simply play the props on the players you like!
2019 Record: +5.5 units
Chris Smith: Handicapping Specialist
Our Handicapping Specialist was cast as the lead role in his very own version of the classic football movie Rudy. He overcame incredible obstacles, like a very tough 1 pm slate of games, to persevere and live bet his way to nearly two units of profit!
Going into the Sunday Night Football game, Chris had quite a bit riding on the matchup between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. He needed the Bears to cover 13.5 on the teaser and stay under 47. Both were easy winners. He also very intelligently grabbed Mitchell Trubisky to throw at least one interception, another easy winner. His biggest win of the weekend? Trusting Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings to have their biggest comeback in the QBs history win live at +225!
2019 Record: +2.75 units
James Aguirre: The Volatility Expert
Our Volatility Expert had a busy week with about 16 plays from Thursday to Monday night. Unfortunately, it ended with James finishing basically even on the week. He was able to bring in quite a bit of profit on the back of the excellent rookie season for Josh Jacobs. Tampa Bay let him down in their battle with conference rival New Orleans Saints. He also perfectly nailed who the benefactor of the Carolina offense would be.
“I talked about the great match up the Panthers aerial attack has against the Falcons pass defense. The primary benefactor for that should be D.J. Moore. Over the last three weeks, he leads the team in weight opportunity and targets (30), which comes out to a 27% target share, according to airyards.com. I like him to eclipse the century mark yet again.”
Moore finished with 95 yards in their loss to the Falcons. Proving once again that player props might be the best way to play a game where the winner is too hard to pick. Like Chris Smith, James was also able to grab a winner on a live bet Monday night. He took a live over 40.5, knowing that defenses would be tired in such high altitude in Mexico City. A 22 point third quarter basically guaranteed profits!
2019 Record: +5 units
Against the Spread Podcast NFL Picks
Another tough week for Against the Spread podcast plays. Dropping another two units of profit. Co-host Ryan Gosling expected big things this week, but his faith in the Miami Dolphins finally came back to haunt him as they were blown out by the visiting Buffalo Bills. Luckily, he was able to salvage some of his losses by believing in the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Detroit Lions without Matthew Stafford!
2019 Record: +3 units
Week 12 NFL game picks preview
Taking a look at some of the opening lines for our Week 12 NFL game picks preview, there are two games that the public and sharps have jumped on. Will we join the herd or break away?
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
89% of the bets and 90% of the money on the over 37
The total of this game is obviously quite low, opening at 35. This low of a total is nearly unprecedented. The Denver Broncos (3-7) have not officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but plenty would have to go the Broncos’ way for them to win out and earn a wild card spot. However, the game has massive playoff implications for the Buffalo Bills (7-3) when they host the Broncos to New Era Field in Buffalo.
Buffalo has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, jumping out to an impressive 7-3 record. However, after this game against Denver, Buffalo has four incredibly difficult games before finishing the year with the New York Jets. Buffalo put on a show against the Miami Dolphins this past week, with their offense finally starting to come together, albeit against a porous Dolphins defense.
Denver will be coming off a brutal loss to the Minnesota Vikings, where they held a 20 point lead at the half. The team has been more competitive than their record indicates so far this year. Denver’s offense is starting to click with quarterback Brandon Allen and receiver Courtland Sutton forming a great connection in the loss to Minnesota. Sutton caught five balls for 113 yards, and Allen passed for 240 yards and a touchdown with one interception.
Denver was able to put up 23 points against a good defense in Minnesota. Buffalo’s offense is also starting to figure things out, relying on Devin Singletary and their run game. I like the over 37 in this one. I think both defenses will get at least one touchdown, and their offenses are capable of putting up a few more. This number is just too low. Join the herd and take the over!
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
71% of the bets and 71% of the money on the New York Giants (+6)
Both of these teams will be looking towards next season now after disappointing 2019 seasons. On Sunday at Soldier Field, the New York Giants (2-8) face the Chicago Bears (4-6). It is unclear if the Bears will be going with Chase Daniel or the struggling Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, but either way, both options are not suitable for this Bears offense. Meanwhile, the Giants will be led by rookie sensation Daniel Jones.
Jones was impressive against the New York Jets. He completed 26-of-40 passes for 308 yards and four touchdowns while receiver Darius Slayton caught 10 passes for 121 yards and two touchdowns. The problem for the Giants, though, was a lack of a rushing attack. Saquon Barkley carried the ball 13 times for just one yard. The Giants are just 22nd in the NFL in rushing at 94.2 yards per game, which might play into the Bears’ hands as they are 7th in the league in rushing defense, allowing just 95.6 yards per game.
Chicago has been all over the place on offense. The Bears are the 28th ranked offense in the NFL. Chicago has just one 100-yard rusher this year when David Montgomery ran for 135 yards in the 17-16 loss to the Chargers. Incredibly, the Bears have been worse passing the ball, coming in at number 30 out of 32 NFL teams in passing at just 182.8 yards per game.
Both these offenses will likely struggle in this game. However, if the Bears decide to go with Daniel at QB, I expect them to put up some points against this awful Giants secondary. The difference here is the run defense. Chicago will likely be able to stop Barkley and force Jones into throwing the ball. At the end of the day, this Chicago defense should do enough to get the win and cover the spread. Breakaway from the herd, don’t be a sheep and take the Bears -6.