If you’re planning to make NFL player prop bets for this pivotal Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Week 15 matchup on Thursday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Seahawks vs. 49ers Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the 49ers will narrowly defeat the Seahawks. It probably won’t be easy, especially with Deebo Samuel out and Brock Purdy hobbled. This has the makings of a Christian-McCaffrey-or-bust evening.
San Francisco has a legitimate shot at the NFC No. 2 seed, which would qualify them for at least two postseason home games. Assuming a conservative passing attack, McCaffrey should carry the load. The rest will be up to the Niners’ vaunted defense, which has held opponents to a league-low 15.2 points per game.
Meanwhile, Seattle gets rookie Kenneth Walker III back in the fold, and not a moment too soon. Travis Homer and Tony Jones Jr. can do only so much, especially against a defense tonight that’s No. 1 in the league against the run (3.4 yards per carry). Seattle drafted Walker to serve as their franchise RB of the future.
Should I say this? Sure. You know it’s mostly ironic: The future is now.
As for the aerial game, I can’t imagine the Seahawks playing things too cautiously. As good as the Niners’ pass defense is, here’s a list of the best passing attacks they’ve faced: the Chiefs, the Dolphins, and these Seahawks in Week 2, when Seattle’s offense was still trying to gel.
Here’s a list of their other opponents: the Bears, Broncos, Rams (twice), Panthers, Falcons, Saints, Chargers (no Keenan Allen or Mike Williams), Cardinals (no Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, or Rondale Moore), and the Buccaneers (no offensive line, fifth-fewest points per game).
As always, context is key. Yes, the 49ers’ D has dominated often. And . . . most of their opponents have fielded bottom-tier passing personnel.
With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.
Geno Smith Prop Bets
As referenced above, San Francisco’s pass defense might be (yes, I’m going to say it) a bit overrated. That doesn’t mean Geno Smith will throw for 250 yards and 2+ scores. But I believe he’ll be opportunistic in his approach tonight, which might result in a 210/1 passing line.
He also has 20+ rushing yards in five of his last six outings. Seattle lost three of those five games; the other two outcomes (both wins) were decided in the fourth quarter. In what should be another close game this evening, we should expect the somewhat mobile Smith to anticipate the Niners’ strong pass rush, perhaps with some delayed draw plays to try to keep the defense off balance.
- Passing yards under 243.5
(-113) — FanDuel - Passing touchdowns under 1.5
(-128) — FanDuel - Rushing yards over 15.5
(-114) — FanDuel
DK Metcalf Prop Bets
Based on the matchup and realistic personnel usage, I’m expecting 19-23 completions for Smith. That should translate into 4-6 for DK Metcalf, or perhaps as much as seven. Against a soft pass D, Metcalf’s prop line would make sense, assuming five or six catches. In fact, he’s averaging 5.5 receptions and 66.8 yards per game.
But I’m fading him just a bit on the yards-per-catch front. The Niners are surrendering the eighth fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest first downs. There might be more stalled drives than usual for Seattle. And yet, they’ll probably operate fairly conservatively as long as they’re within striking distance.
- Receiving yards under 66.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Tyler Lockett Prop Bets
Speaking of conservative play-calling, let’s look at when these teams last met in Week 2. San Francisco won 27-7. Seattle ran the ball six times on their first two drives. They were already down 13-0 at the start of drive No. 3, eight of their next nine offensive plays were through the air, and that trend mostly continued the rest of the game.
So let’s ignore Tyler Lockett’s 9-107-0 receiving line in that contest. I don’t see it repeating tonight in what should be a more competitive game where Seattle is able to commit more to the run.
- Receiving yards under 63.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey Prop Bets
If the 49ers lose, they’ll be only one game up on the Seahawks with three to play. Their remaining schedules and playoff tiebreaker criteria should still favor San Francisco. But still, with Brock Purdy hobbled and Deebo Samuel out, there’s no guarantee the Niners’ remaining receivers can lead them to victory.
That’s no knock on Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, or even the underrated Danny Gray. It’s simply the reality of this team’s current run- and defense-heavy composition, especially without a proven, offense-elevating quarterback.
This franchise traded for Christian McCaffrey to help put them over the top. Now they need him more than ever. He’s coming off a modest 16-touch workload on Sunday — “nothing to get in a twist over,” as The Shawshank Redemption’s Captain Hadley would say if he were an NFL analyst.
I’m banking on 20+ touches for McCaffrey against a porous run defense that’s also yielding the fifth most RB receiving yards (578 on 71 catches). Barring an unexpectedly dominant defensive performance by Seattle, this game was made for McCaffrey.
- Rushing yards over 78.5
(-105) — DraftKings - Receptions over 4.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 35.5
(-125) — DraftKings
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