The Seattle Seahawks will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Seahawks skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Geno Smith, QB
If DK Metcalf is deemed active this week, I’ll move Geno Smith up a few spots, but that still won’t land him as the QB1 in this game or a top-15 option at the position across the league for me.
Last season, Smith averaged just 5.8 yards per pass against the Rams. And although this Los Angeles defense isn’t nearly as good, I have trust issues here.
The Rams rank fifth in pressure rate thus far, and considering that Smith is averaging just 5.4 yards per pressured attempt over the past month with as many interceptions as touchdowns, you can do better.
The five top-10 finishes from earlier this season were done with some smoke and mirrors, making a glance at Smith’s overall box score a bit misleading. He doesn’t have a 40-yard completion in five straight games, and with Kenneth Walker III in a strong spot, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we saw a third straight sub-30 attempt game from Smith.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Walker is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season — he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games since his return from injury.
If the pass-catching floor is here to stay, how much different is he really than Saquon Barkley? That may sound aggressive, but is he not also an explosive back who is in a scoring position every time he touches the ball?
The Rams are allowing the second-most yards per pass when running backs are targets this season, a deficiency that gives Walker a chance to sustain his status as an elite fantasy option. Given the price you paid on draft day, Walker could end up being on the list for MVP in our game this season, and I expect him to show why in this spot — he’s my RB3.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Charbonnet hasn’t had more than eight touches in a game since the middle of September, and with Kenneth Walker III playing at potentially the highest level of his career, it’s tough to see Charbonnet’s backup role extending in any sort of meaningful way.
We are talking about a strong handcuff, and that’s valuable, but he’s not a threat to hold stand-alone value.
DK Metcalf, WR
Metcalf got the “week-to-week” designation last week due to a Grade 1 MCL sprain. While he wasn’t officially ruled out until the last minute, he never appeared to be likely to play last week. Does the dragging out of his status last week indicate that his rehab could be ahead of pace?
It’s possible, and there’s no two ways about it, this is a situation you’re going to have to watch all week long (we will have you covered with plenty of content around his injury and the receiver position as a whole that seems to be cursed). That said, Metcalf managers should gain comfort given the opponent …
- Five touchdowns in his past six games against the Rams
- At least eight targets in five of his past seven games against the Rams
- Career: 31.1% production over fantasy expectation against the Rams
I worry about the touchdown equity, something that sounds crazy for a beat like Metcalf who has earned five end-zone targets over his past three games, but hear me out. The Rams have been above average in most scoring metrics against the pass. Metcalf, despite the looks in the paint, has been targeted on just 20.8% of his red-zone routes. For reference, his rate was 38% in 2022 and 33.3% last season.
In season-long formats, if he plays, you play him. Easy. In DFS, however, the 57.4% catch rate and declining red-zone usage numbers have me looking elsewhere if spending up at the receiver position.
Jake Bobo, WR
The thought process with taking a flier on Bobo last week with DK Metcalf out proved reasonable (74.5% snap share), but when investing in a Geno Smith-led offense, you know the risks are a part of the equation.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vacuumed in seven of the 12 receiver targets in the lopsided loss, and while I expect him to be the featured option, that rate of involvement is unlikely to be sustained. I think this is a better spot, and my thought process remains.
Bobo is a reasonable DFS punt play should Metcalf sit. Heck, he might be a better contrarian play this week than last thanks to a more favorable matchup and fewer people willing to stick their hand over the flame again.
This season, the Seahawks are a bottom-three defense when opponents throw to the perimeter in terms of passer rating, yards per pass, and touchdown rate. The Rams’ offense should continue to trend in the right direction as it nears full strength; if Seattle is playing from behind, the 6’4″ Bobo has access to a strong per-dollar production role.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Note: An oblique injury limited Lockett on Wednesday, but he was a full-go on Thursday and appears set to fill his normal role.
Forget actual production, Lockett hasn’t had a role that saw him earn more than 10 projected points in a game this season. Even with DK Metcalf ailing, the veteran receiver didn’t earn five targets a single time in the month of October and seems to have little gas left in the tank in an offense that is likely to rebrand itself around Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba down the stretch.
Lockett’s name carries nostalgia with it, I get it. I promise you that I like him as much as you do, but this profile doesn’t need to be on fantasy rosters (two finishes this season better than WR40), especially against a defense that held him to 61 yards on 11 targets across two games last season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Is the breakout coming? The second-year receiver has seen his target rate increase in each of the past three weeks, picking up usage as a result of DK Metcalf’s injury. The involvement is one thing, but the ability to make the most of those opportunities is another.
Last week, JSN produced 11.1% over expectation, a massive step forward from his 32.8% below expectation mark from his previous four games. The Rams create pressure at the fifth-highest rate this season, something that elevates Smith-Njigba’s projectable usage from the slot.
I’m not hesitating to plug in Seattle’s short-yardage specialist in this game. His ranking will fall back a few spots should Metcalf return but not enough to knock him out of his current “feel fine about starting me” tier.
Noah Fant, TE
How many tight ends do you think have at least three catches from the QB their team entered this season labeled as the starter in each of the past four weeks?
Six.
There are only six of them, and the other five are rostered in a far higher percentage of leagues (George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Mark Andrews). Fant, of course, is the sixth, and with a role that sees him running a route on 93.5% of his snaps, there’s a reasonable floor to target here.
The development of Kenneth Walker III as a pass catcher scares me, and a healthy DK Metcalf would naturally limit the target opportunities. That said, streaming the tight end position is a game of extreme turnover, and I’m OK with going this route if your team is otherwise loaded.
The Rams allow the seventh-most yards per play this season (5.8), giving Seattle the opportunity to put their tight end in position to box out a linebacker and score.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Insights
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Over their past three games, the Rams have coveted seven-of-nine red zone drives into touchdowns (prior: seven-of-17).
QB: Matthew Stafford posted his best EPA against zone in a game since Week 6, 2021 (it was the first time he posted a positive number since Week 1, the last time he had both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua)
Offense: In the return of their two star receivers, the Rams operated at their slowest pace of the season and it worked – they averaged a season-best 5.8 yards per play.
Defense: In Weeks 5-8, Los Angeles has allowed opponents to convert just 20% of third downs (Weeks 1-4: 50%).
Fantasy: Puka Nacua dropped the first target on Thursday night, but in his return to action, three of Stafford’s first four passes were directed toward the second-year weapon.
Betting: The Rams kicked off Week 8 on Thursday night – they are 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since the beginning of 2019 when playing on extended rest (only the Jets and Texans have been worse in such spots over that stretch). They’ve failed to cover each of their past eight games (average cover margin: -6.1 points)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: This is Seattle’s fourth home game in a five-game stretch—they’ve lost the first three and been outscored 96-54 in those contests (Giants, 49ers, and Bills).
QB: In the first four weeks this season, Geno Smith completed 81% of his out-of-pocket throws. Over the past four weeks, that rate has regressed in a major way: 35.7%.
Offense: Seattle went three-and-out on 55.6% of their drives against the Bills, their second-highest rate since November 1, 2021 (Week 9, 2023, at Ravens).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, the Seahawks took advantage of their schedule (DEN, NE, and MIA) and allowed just 1.03 points per drive. In their five games since (DET, NYG, SF, ATL, and BUF), they are allowing 2.61 points per drive (up 153.4%)
Fantasy: Kenneth Walker III is already three receptions away from setting a career-high for a season – he has over seven PPR points as a pass catcher in all five of his games back from injury.
Betting: The Seahawks are a league-worst 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) after Halloween since 2020 (the Rams are 23-19-1 ATS over that stretch, eighth-best).
Betting: Since 2021, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in home divisional games (unders are 7-3 in those games).