All signs point to this contest being a coin flip, which is the preferred type of game when it comes to building out your same game parlay picks! Tell whatever story you’d like, but here are where my numbers led me for the final game of Week 4.
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Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants Odds
Seahawks -130, Giants +114
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: The Giants haven’t beaten the Seahawks in a home game since 2008. In that game, five different players had at least three catches. Can you name any of them?
Betting “overs” can be a dangerous proposition given the number of things that can hurt you: injuries, game flow, etc. That said, all signs point to this being a fun game with fireworks, and thus, I’m over-heavy in this spot.
Let’s start with the macro before getting to the micro. Why am I of the belief that we see points in bunches on Monday night? This game involves:
- Two of the five worst third-down defenses
- Two of the five worst yards/play defenses
- Two offenses that operate at or above average in pace
Those are pretty good signs, and then if you drill down on specific team numbers, the “overs” special becomes even more favorable.
- Seattle: Every red-zone drive against them has resulted in a TD
- New York: Second in blitz rate and 32nd in QB hurry rate
Have I sold you on this Monday nighter being fun? That Giants flaw has me interested in Geno Smith’s rushing total (26 yards in this matchup last season).
The Giants’ low-pressure rate through three weeks helps DK Metcalf, a receiver who hauled in 7.2 catches per game (at least five in every game) when facing bottom-10 pressure units in 2022.
#Seahawks DK Metcalf says his ribs are fine:
— HawkMania (@hawkmania4) September 29, 2023
Now, let’s explore when the Giants have the rock. Darren Waller leads the team in catches, targets, and receiving yards, a favorable role in this favorable spot.
To finish off this work of over art is betting on sportsbooks properly identifying this game. Across the betting board, this game is expected to be tight, and I agree.
Well, that means we get Dashing Danny more than Danny Dimes. Here are his rush totals over his past five games in which the Giants didn’t lose by at least 15 points:
- 59 yards
You don’t need my math degree to know that those numbers all clear a specific threshold set by the books.
- Trivia Answer: Bobby Engram and Deion Branch for the Seahawks and Domenik Hixon, Sinorice Moss, and Amani Toomer for the Giants
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Darren Waller over 46.5 receiving yards, DK Metcalf over 4.5 receptions, Geno Smith over 13.5 rushing yards, Daniel Jones over 32.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +1200 (at DraftKings)