The Dallas Cowboys are heavily favored, and I think that’s right.
Even in a game where I agree with the sportsbook, there are avenues to use same game parlay picks to build a betting card for Seahawks vs. Cowboys that pays off better than four-to-one.
Seahawks vs. Cowboys Betting Lines
Seahawks +340, Cowboys -425
Seahawks vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: The last time these two teams met, four receivers reached 100 yards. Can you name three of them?
What is the story we are going to tell to kick off Week 13? You already know that I think this is a Cowboys spot, so let’s start on their side of the ball. Dak Prescott is playing at a high level and that has elevated every member of this passing game, but the flashy names are the players who have seen player prop numbers spike the most.
Left out of that mix (to a degree) is Jake Ferguson, the very stable tight end that moves the chains instead of landing on SportsCenter’s Top 10. Through 12 weeks, the Seahawks own a rare defense that ranks top 10 in pressure rate despite a bottom-10 blitz rate. Due to that success, they own the ninth-lowest opponent aDOT. If short passes are the name of the game tonight…
- Ferguson: 5.98 aDOT
- CeeDee Lamb: 10.98 aDOT
- Brandin Cooks: 12.46 aDOT
That puts Ferguson in a good spot. Another overlooked part of this matchup is the low blitz rate. That not only means the Seahawks can allocate more resources to trying to cover up these game-breaking receivers, but it also means that Ferguson (84.8% route participation on Thanksgiving) won’t be asked to block or chip, thus freeing him up to focus on his route running.
Let’s flip to when the Seahawks have the ball — this could get ugly. Before I dive into the specifics, understand that this is likely a low-volume spot because the Cowboys rank seventh in time of possession while the Seahawks rank 32nd.
The Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots are all awful offenses, yet they are all in possession of the ball more often than the ‘Hawks through three months.
I think those struggles continue this week, given that Dallas owns the second-best third-down defense (Seattle owns the league’s fourth-worst third-down offense). That is not the only strength of this Cowboys’ defense:
- Ninth-fewest yards per completion
- Fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt
- Second-highest sack rate (10.2% of dropbacks)
Those numbers point us towards passing under, and Geno Smith has done nothing to flip that narrative. The Cowboys defense is the fourth-best scoring unit in the league this season, and Smith has struggled to produce against good defenses. Heck, forget “good” defenses. He’s struggled against anything even close to an average defense.
- Against bottom-10 scoring defenses: 69.6% completion rate, 264.4 yards per game
- All other matchups: 56.5%, 210.3
Since the Week 7 bye, Dallas is limiting the top two receiving threats to 4.3 yards per target. My ceiling projection for Smith isn’t as high as it is, and if efficiency for DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett is in question, I like the spot we are in!
- Trivia Answer: The four receivers to reach triple figures in their last meeting (2020): Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Geno Smith under 223.5 passing yards, Seattle Seahawks under 19.5 points, Jake Ferguson over 34.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +410 (at DraftKings)*
*Not juicy enough for you? Both of these teams are better than league average at holding onto the ball, and neither is top 10 at taking the ball away. Add “under 2.5 turnovers,” and your ticket is now +750!
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