Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have been the most prolific QB/WR duo in recent weeks, so how should you approach their player prop bets for tonight’s game?
Let’s dive into our top Seahawks vs. Cowboys player prop bets for Thursday Night Football.
Top Seahawks vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets
Geno Smith To Throw an Interception (-145 at DraftKings)
Bearman: I don’t usually give out interception props as a play, but this one is starting right at me.
The Cowboys are one of the more opportunistic defenses in the league, as they’re tied for fourth with 12 picks this season. Geno Smith has struggled against top defenses this season, having thrown four interceptions in three games against the Browns, Ravens, and 49ers.
The juice is a little high at -145, but I’m still going to roll with it. If that’s too high for you, play it in an SGP with the Cowboys’ alternate spread or moneyline.
Geno Smith Under 223.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: I understand that this is likely a low-volume spot because the Cowboys rank seventh in time of possession while the Seahawks rank 32nd.
The Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots are all awful offenses, yet they are all in possession of the ball more often than the ‘Hawks through three months.
I think those struggles continue this week, given that Dallas owns the second-best third-down defense (Seattle owns the league’s fourth-worst third-down offense). That is not the only strength of this Cowboy’s defenses:
- Ninth-fewest yards per completion
- Fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt
- Second-highest sack rate (10.2% of dropbacks)
Those numbers point us towards passing under, and Geno Smith has done nothing to flip that narrative. The Cowboys defense is the fourth-best scoring unit in the league this season, and Smith has struggled to produce against good defenses. Heck, forget “good” defenses. He’s struggled against anything even close to an average defense.
- Against bottom-10 scoring defenses: 69.6% completion rate, 264.4 yards per game
- All other matchups: 56.5%, 210.3
Since the Week 7 bye, Dallas is limiting the top 2 receiving threats to 4.3 yards per target. My ceiling projection for Smith isn’t as high as it is, and if efficiency for DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett is in question, I like the spot we are in!
Dak Prescott Not To Throw an Interception (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The narrative of Dak Prescott as a turnover-prone quarterback is a thing of the past after last season, as he currently has the lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays of starting QBs this season. Tonight, he gets a matchup against a Seattle defense that has just eight interceptions for the season, which is only more than 10 other teams.
We can’t discount any potential flukey interceptions here, but the odds are appealing enough for me to take this bet. I expect Prescott’s hot streak and ball security to continue here against Seattle at home, where he has only thrown two interceptions all season.
CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown (-110 at FanDuel)
Blewis: I’m surprised this line isn’t shorter, especially considering it’s -145 at DraftKings.
CeeDee Lamb has scored a touchdown in four of his five last games and has gotten into the end zone in all but one home game this season.
During Prescott’s hot streak, Lamb has been perhaps the best receiver in football, and at odds like this, it’s hard to pass up the value of him getting into the end zone yet again.
Brandin Cooks Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: During the first seven weeks of the season, Brandin Cooks was averaging 4.1 targets, 2.4 receptions, and 23.6 yards per game. Since then, he has averaged 6.3 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 95.7 yards per game. During the last three weeks, he has had three of his four best games of the season in terms of receiving yards.
It’s a small sample size for sure, but it could also be a direct result of Cooks developing better chemistry with Prescott and being more comfortable in a new offensive scheme.
This is still a very low number, and with an aDOT of 12.5 (14th out of 70 WRs with at least 40 targets), Cooks won’t need a high volume of targets to go over this number.
Zach Charbonnet Under 69.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, we hit on Zach Charbonnet under 76.5 rush + receiving yards. He played 88% of the snaps, touched the ball 18 times, and totaled 58 yards. As a result, the books have lowered his line this week … but not by enough.
The Cowboys allow 3.8 YPC to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league. They allow 25 receiving yards per game to backs, the fifth-fewest in the league. The Seahawks are nine-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, they will have to abandon the run sooner than they’d like.
I like Charbonnet. He’s a talented player. But he’s getting saddled with tough matchup after tough matchup filling in for the injured Kenneth Walker III. Seventy yards is asking a lot. Look for a similar line to last week, keeping him under this number.
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