If you’re looking for Week 5 XFL Seattle Sea Dragons vs. Houston Roughnecks odds, picks, and predictions for this thrilling Thursday night matchup, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Sea Dragons vs. Roughnecks Week 5 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Sea Dragons vs. Roughnecks are as of the evening of Wednesday, March 15, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Sea Dragons (+3)
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons (+140), Roughnecks (-165)
- Over/Under: 41.5 (-110)
Sea Dragons vs. Roughnecks Picks and Predictions
My Week 3 XFL point spread and moneyline picks went a combined 6-2, and in Week 4, they went 7-1. Once again, my over/unders disappointed. So just like last week, I want to be transparent about where I’m hitting and where I’m badly missing (so far).
If you haven’t been following the XFL this season, then this might look like “just another game.” It’s not. Seattle was one of my two preseason favorites to win the 2023 XFL Championship, and I believe they’re much better than their 2-2 record. For example, they lost in Week 1 on a late goal-line fumble. Yeah, it happens. But that and a last-second 44-yard field goal in Week 2 mark the difference between 2-2 and 4-0.
MORE: 2023 XFL Standings | XFL TV Schedule
Their offensive personnel includes Ben DiNucci, who leads all XFL quarterbacks in passing yards (1,119). With presumed early-season starter Brenden Knox on the shelf, Morgan Ellison now leads all players in rushing yards (239), as well as runs of 10+ yards (10) and yards per carry (5.2).
Meanwhile, Seattle boasts the No. 1 and No. 2 receivers in receptions (Jahcour Pearson and Blake Jackson, respectively) and receiving yards (Pearson and Josh Gordon, respectively). As you can see from that last sentence, this franchise has three elite — or, at worst, near-elite — wideouts.
In a league where many first-round draft picks have been busts and many late-rounders have been stars, these teams couldn’t have known for sure where their talent would emerge, or by what degree. For the Sea Dragons, it’s been a gold mine of success, at least on offense.
Now for the 4-0 Roughnecks, which epitomize “dominance.” They’ve scored the league’s most points while yielding the fewest. They’ve averaged more than 100 more yards per game than they’ve given up. Despite sharing undefeated cred with the DC Defenders, Houston objectively has the more complete team.
I was thoroughly impressed with their Week 4 thrashing of the hapless Orlando Guardians. Not that Orlando is very good (they’re not). But Houston was missing their star running back, Max Borghi. Yet backup Dejoun Lee rolled in his absence, racking up 7.5 yards per carry and two scores, along with three receptions.
Brandon Silvers targeted 10 players. Sure, Orlando targeted 11. But the difference was as plain in the box score as it was on the field. Most of the Roughnecks’ targeted players probably could start on several other XFL teams. This is a deep, dangerous corps led by Jontre Kirklin and Deontay Burnett.
Houston easily holds the edge on defense. However (and this matters), they’ve faced Orlando twice, the overrated 2-2 Arlington Renegades, and the 1-3 San Antonio Brahmas. Those are the XFL’s three lowest-scoring teams.
Sure, Houston had something to do with that. But there’s more to it. The Roughnecks are A) great and B) fortunate to have played the league’s easiest schedule through four games. Their next three are against Seattle, DC, and the 3-1 St. Louis Battlehawks (my other preseason favorite to win it all).
Houston just played on Saturday in Orlando. They’re traveling across the country to play five days later vs. their toughest competition of the season. While Borghi’s status remains up in the air as I’m writing this, that might not matter. Both sides can light it up on offense.
It might simply come down to which team has the ball last — or which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. DiNucci has been plagued by costly errors. Simultaneously, Seattle’s getting hot at the perfect time.
I’m comfortable leaning into the Sea Dragons in this one, as I expect them to throw things at Houston’s defense that the latter hasn’t seen yet. And even in the XFL, home field matters.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Sea Dragons (+3)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Sea Dragons (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110)