Considering the amount of hype Saquon Barkley had entering the NFL out of Penn State, it would be easy to call his fantasy football production profile a bit of a disappointment through the first six years of his NFL career.
Can fantasy managers expect Barkley to return to the RB1 overall conversation in 2024 as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles?
Saquon Barkley’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Few running back prospects have ever possessed the exceptional combination of strength, speed, and explosiveness that we’ve seen from Barkley. The New York Giants spending the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft proves just how rare his physical ability is on his 6’0”, 233-pound frame.
Barkley flashed that elite ability from the moment he stepped on a professional field with an RB1 overall finish in his rookie season with 1,307 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to go with 91 receptions for 721 yards and four more scores. That season alone proved just how dominant of a fantasy force he’s capable of being.
The unfortunate reality surrounding Barkley is we’ve never seen those heights from him again over his next five seasons.
Saquon Barkley Career Fantasy Positional Ranks
- 2018: RB1 (385.8 fantasy points)
- 2019: RB10 (243.1)
- 2020: RB114 (15.4)
- 2021: RB30 (146.6)
- 2022: RB5 (283)
- 2023: RB13 (223.2)
Do these fantasy rankings require a bit of context? Absolutely.
After playing a full 16-game season his rookie year, Barkley has missed 25 games over the last five years while dealing with a multitude of injuries — torn ACL, high ankle sprains, and an elbow sprain — and playing in some of the worst offenses the league had to offer throughout his entire career.
The Giants’ passing game has been so horrendous over the last five years that they haven’t had a pass catcher top 70 receptions or 800 yards receiving. This has undoubtedly impacted both his efficiency (3.89 yards per carry in 2023) and his number of touches in the red zone.
Yet, Barkley’s RB13 and RB5 fantasy finishes over the last two years with the likes of Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito should certainly not be ignored. His 2.1 yards before contact per attempt was in the same range as Derrick Henry and Chuba Hubbard last year, who were in similarly poor situations with bad quarterback play and struggling offensive lines.
Here comes the good news. Barkley will be playing behind an Eagles’ offensive line that helped D’Andre Swift average 3.0 yards before contact per attempt last year — which ranked fifth among backs with 200+ carries.
The move from New York to Philadelphia finally allows Barkley to see a feature-back role for a top-10 offensive unit, giving him the upside for an RB1 overall fantasy ceiling in 2024 — if Jalen Hurts doesn’t vulture away all of the short-yardage work this upcoming season.
Hurts owns the record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback over two years with 28. Sure, the Tush Push may not be as effective with Jason Kelce now enjoying retirement, but Hurts will still see his fair share of carries inside the 5-yard line — where he ranked sixth in the league last season with 16 carries for 13 scores.
In comparison, Barkley only saw six such carries last year while being stuck in a Giants’ offense that produced just 43 trips to the red zone — which ranked 28th in the NFL.
In addition to losing some goal-to-go carries to Hurts, Barkley’s pass-catching floor is likely another concern heading into 2024. The aforementioned Swift, who is an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield, caught a career-low 39 receptions last year. This likely means Barkley won’t get anywhere near his career-high 91 receptions mark from his rookie year in Philly’s offense.
Barkley’s current ADP sits at No. 9 overall (RB4 off the board), which puts him towards the back end of round 1 in the same range as Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams.
Barkley’s upside is intact with his big-play ability operating behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Yet, the fantasy pitfalls of losing valuable goal-line touches and a less-than-ideal floor in the passing game with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert dominating the aerial attack does potentially lower that RB1 overall ceiling conversation.
Barkley is appropriately priced in the second round and should provide a nice RB1 option for your fantasy team in 2024.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for Saquon Barkley
Barkley is entering his age-27 season (over the past 15 seasons, the majority of the 25 highest-scoring seasons from a PPR RB has come from a player aged 25-28) and leaving an offense that ranked 31st in success rate.
He’s joining a team that ranked fifth despite every running back on its roster checking in below expectation when comparing their opportunity-adjusted fantasy scoring.
With everything around him going wrong, Barkley posted a career high in fantasy points per target last season (1.58 PPR points) and picked up 10+ yards on 10.5% of his carries, a rate that is spot on to his career rate.
In a situation that was as limiting as any, the former Nittany Lion still gave us good counting numbers and backed them up with a solid advanced foundation.
Even if you want to place Barkley sixth at the running back position, I prefer him to the tier of receivers in this ADP tier.
- Davante Adams: Last season was his ceiling, not an expectation.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: Natural learning curve potential for a rookie.
- Chris Olave: Why would this year be any different than his first two?
- Drake London: What if Kirk Cousins isn’t fully healthy?
- Nico Collins: Elite talent, but a tremendous increase in opportunity competition.
I’m all-in on drafting Barkley at cost, and if you want to turn your league on its head, I think going power-RB at the turn with Jonathan Taylor/Barkley is interesting — zigging when the industry decides to zag can turn you a profit. If you’re going to do it in the early rounds, that’s my path!