San Francisco 49ers prop bets 2022: Predictions for Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle

    We're recommending these nine San Francisco 49ers prop bets for the 2022 season surrounding Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

    If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested bets for some of the San Francisco 49ers’ top playmakers. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders, featuring Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

    Top 49ers prop bets for 2022

    The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.

    Trey Lance

    The Trey Lance era has begun, and if you were bullish about him last year, presumably little has changed this year. I was all-in on Lance last summer as a future top-five NFL quarterback in the vein of a peak-performing Lamar Jackson. 400+ fantasy points someday are realistic.

    On the betting side, we should anticipate growing pains. Since graduating high school, Lance has started a grand total of 19 games, including only three in the last two seasons overlapping with his final (abridged) North Dakota State campaign. It’s a race to see whether raw abilities can overcome inexperience. Given the talent that surrounds him, I’m very comfortable with projections of 200+ passing yards and 1.3+ passing TDs per game.

    Passing yards: Over 3,300.5
    Passing TDs: Over 21.5
    Interceptions: Over 12.5

    Deebo Samuel

    When it comes to Deebo Samuel, bettors have a more complex set of criteria to evaluate. He had 77 catches and 59 carries last year. FanDuel’s props assume more of the same. From my perspective, the safer bet is to assume a shift into a more traditional receiver role.

    That means far fewer carries, which isn’t hard to envision when weighing the impact of the run-friendly Lance. Additionally, the healthier Jeff Wilson and underappreciated Trey Sermon — along with intriguing rookie Tyrion Davis-Price — give this team far more RB depth alongside Elijah Mitchell.

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    Samuel remains an elite, or at least a near-elite, NFL wideout. But his days as a dual-threat playmaker might be drawing to a close, at least while he’s in a Niners uniform. I’m bullish about his conservative receiving projections — which assumes Lance will have trouble getting him the ball — and I’m fading hard on his less-realistic rushing projections.

    Receiving yards: Over 925.5
    Receiving TDs: Over 5.5
    Rushing yards: Under 381.5
    Rushing TDs: Under 4.5

    George Kittle

    Since entering the league as a fifth-round draft pick in 2017, George Kittle has asserted himself as one of the NFL’s top tight ends. Despite being a relative late-bloomer (he turned 24 early in his rookie campaign), on a per-game basis, few TEs have matched his brilliance. For context, in the last four seasons, the All-World Travis Kelce has averaged 6.3 catches for 81 yards per game. Kittle has averaged 5.6 catches for 76 yards per game.

    The knock on Kittle has been durability. Betting on him means wagering he’ll be healthy for most of the season. He missed three games last year and eight the year before, as well as two the year before that. So no one can possibly know how his health will hold up this season. That said, injury concerns are already baked into his props. As one of the league’s highest-volume TEs and a veteran in a very youthful receiving corps, Kittle should establish a solid rapport with Lance.

    Receiving yards: Over 800.5
    Receiving TDs: Over 5.5

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