It’s somewhat strange to be discussing the fantasy football potential of New Orleans Saints wide receivers without Michael Thomas, but that’s where we are entering 2024. In Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and A.T. Perry, the Saints have a talented trio of receivers, but should you be looking to invest in their fantasy outlooks for the upcoming season?
Chris Olave’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 290.0 (182.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 107.3
- Receiving Yards: 1,463.4
- Receiving TDs: 6.1
The age curve and skill growth are marks very much working in Olave’s favor and allow him to enter 2024 with the hope of becoming a stable WR1 for his fantasy managers.
Last season, the former Buckeye had more catches (87) than any of his teammates had targets — a trend that seems likely to continue given that New Orleans’ only investment to its skill-position group on draft day was Bub Means (a burner out of Pittsburgh with a Shaheed-like profile) with the 170th overall pick.
You could argue that Olave’s target share is more likely to increase than decrease if you’re factoring in some natural decline as a result of age for Alvin Kamara. The Saints’ starting running back was the only other player on this team to have 50+ catches in 2023, and baking in some diminishing of skills entering his age-29 season is reasonable.
There are a handful of receivers capable of developing into every-week WR1s this season, and Olave’s name is very much on that list.
Olave is currently going in the first half of Round 2, a price that feels a touch optimistic but is logical. He’s coming off draft boards just after alpha receivers with their own QB concerns (Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams) but ahead of young talent that hasn’t flashed at the pro level the way he has yet (rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London).
If you’re picking around the turn, I think you could do worse than a Saquon Barkley/Olave start to the festivities. The first round is loaded with receivers, and if you land a bona fide star at the position with your first pick, I’m more likely to add an RB to my roster than double down at WR. (I’m higher on Travis Etienne Jr. than most, but De’Von Achane is also sitting right in that same ADP range if you prefer.)
The skipping over Olave in that build is less about him and more about the quality of pass catcher I can get in the third round (Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith).
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Rashid Shaheed’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 159.1 (112.6 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 46.5
- Receiving Yards: 762.8
- Receiving TDs: 4.3
On the surface, Shaheed’s 10.4 fantasy points per game seem unimpressive. However, digging deeper reveals that there’s definitely something here. The question is whether the Saints can fully unlock it.
Shaheed wasn’t New Orleans’ full-time WR2 in 2023. He played only 46% of the snaps and saw a mere 14.3% target share, but his efficiency allowed him to produce WR4 numbers.
Shaheed’s best skill is his speed. As a result, he frequently sees downfield targets, as evidenced by his 14.6-yard average depth of target.
Impressively, despite seeing so many deep targets, Shaheed was able to post a 61.3% catch rate. His 9.6 yards per target and 15.6 yards per reception ranked 17th and 15th, respectively — pretty impressive for a part-time player.
There’s an opportunity here for Shaheed to be a weekly WR3. To be clear, though, Shaheed is not about to get you 10-13 fantasy points each week; that’s not his game. He’s going to be volatile with games of 20.0+ and games under 5.0. If you draft him, you have to be prepared for this.
Shaheed’s ADP sits at WR65, No. 171 overall. He can be the last or second-to-last WR on your roster. Those are the exact types of guys you want to be volatile.
You don’t need a safe, reliable 11 points from anyone you draft. You can pick that up off the waiver wire. Having a guy like Shaheed on your bench is ideal because you can plug him in and know you have a shot at a matchup-swinging performance.
I have Shaheed ranked as my WR47, which, even this far down, is a massive difference from his ADP. He’s all upside at his price.
Nevertheless, at that point in drafts, it’s really a personal preference as to what type of dart you want to throw. I’m more apt to take a chance on a guy like Shaheed, but other receivers are also young with solid upside as well.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
A.T. Perry’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 88.7 (53.2 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 35.5
- Receiving Yards: 354.9
- Receiving TDs: 3.0
A 6’5”, 24-year-old will almost blindly always have a roster spot waiting for him when I’m drafting. Those prospects only improve when his quarterback is a bit underrated by the fantasy industry.
#Saints QB Derek Carr over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field:
🎯 Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
🎯 Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
🎯 Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)@KyleSoppePFN… pic.twitter.com/O3JUfBGHaZ— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 25, 2024
The downside here is that both Olave and Shaheed are downfield options.
Perry’s profile is interesting to me, but he needs an injury to see the field enough to roll the dice on. My guess is that people will flock to him if Olave were to go down, but I’d argue that he’s roster worthy if Shaheed went down as well.
This isn’t a profile you need to draft, but it’s one I’d spend FAAB on if he moved up to the WR2 role.
– Soppe
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