Saints vs. Ravens Player Props for Monday Night Football: Alvin Kamara or Bust

Here are our recommended Week 9 NFL Saints vs. Ravens player props based on game-script analyses for this Monday Night Football contest.

If you’re planning to bet on Week 9 NFL player props for Monday Night Football’s intriguing New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

Top Saints vs. Ravens Player Props To Target

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Andy Dalton Player Props

I don’t think the Saints want Andy Dalton throwing more than 34 times tonight, and maybe no more than 30. In his two wins as a starter this year, he attempted 24 passes (Week 5) and 30 passes (Week 8).

The only time Dalton’s thrown for 240+ yards was against Arizona two weeks ago. A pair of pick-sixes closed the first half, digging New Orleans into a hole that required Dalton to keep airing it out after halftime.

MORE: Top NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football

Although the Ravens are vulnerable against the pass, I believe the Saints’ key to victory consists of limiting Baltimore’s possessions by feeding Alvin Kamara 25+ times. Ideally, for New Orleans, Dalton will serve more as a game manager, limiting the upside he displayed in most of the past two games.

  • Passing TDs under 1.5
    (-125) — FanDuel
  • Passing yards under 238.5
    (-113) — FanDuel
  • Rushing yards under 4.5
    (-120) — DraftKings
  • Interceptions under 0.5
    (EVEN) — DraftKings

Alvin Kamara Player Props

What does it mean to be bullish about a player? It’s not about chasing stats. It’s about identifying a relatively high probability of a particular game plan impacting that player, and a comparably high probability that the team will be able to execute that game plan.

As explained earlier, I believe the Saints cannot win this game through the air. Alongside Chris Olave, a healthy Michael Thomas, younger/healthier Jarvis Landry, and younger Dalton probably would have been able to generate buckets of yards versus a defense that’s struggled against the pass.

The Saints and Ravens entered Week 9 among the top eight in offensive time of possession. Despite their injury woes, both teams have actually improved in this area in their last three games.

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For the Saints, Kamara has been a major reason why his team’s defense hasn’t been overworked. The all-world RB has accumulated 99 touches in his last four outings, while his passing-game usage has steadily climbed. It’s clear he’s the focal point, and it’s also clear opposing teams — including the Seahawks, Bengals, and Rams — haven’t been able to stop him.

I’m bullish about Kamara tonight, because I believe the Saints will continue to run their offense through him, and that he’ll maintain high enough efficiency levels to exceed all of his props.

  • Rushing attempts over 15.5
    (-105) — DraftKings
  • Rushing yards over 60.5
    (-113) — FanDuel
  • Receptions over 4.5
    (-130) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards over 37.5
    (-110) — DraftKings

Chris Olave Player Props

There’s Olave, and then there’s every other Saints receiver. I think we know that by now. Juwan Johnson brings some nice TD upside, but with Adam Trautman splitting snaps, who knows if Johnson can reel in more than two balls for 20 yards.

And we can still look to Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith — regular 2021 contributors — as possible breakout candidates. Both have big-play ability. Yet, their inconsistency makes them tough players to bet on. We can’t always account for that one big play that can transform a zero-catch night into one for 75 yards and a score.

Olave has served as Dalton’s No. 1 receiver. He’s received 13+ targets in three of four losses. If my assessment of this game is accurate — if the Saints win and enjoy a positive game script for much of the evening — then we might envision Olave corralling four or five balls for 60+ yards (on par with his 14.8 yards per reception).

  • Receptions under 5.5
    (-130) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards over 64.5
    (-110) — DraftKings

Lamar Jackson Player Props

I believe Lamar Jackson will use his legs more than usual tonight. And I realize that’s like saying Tom Hanks will play more sympathetic characters than usual.

But Jackson’s work on the ground has slowed a bit since the start of the season, and it makes sense.

The Ravens won their last two games and led the Giants by 10 midway through the fourth quarter, before New York’s miraculous comeback. Overall, he’s averaging 56.8 rushing yards in victories and 89.7 in defeats. However, throughout his career, Jackson has averaged 69.3 rushing yards in victories and only 51.8 in defeats.

Why the shift in 2022? Perhaps because earlier this season, J.K. Dobbins struggled as the starter, coinciding with Jackson playing an outsized role on the ground. As Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake stabilized the backfield, there’s been less pressure on Jackson.

However, with only Drake and the lesser-used Justice Hill remaining, and with Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman sidelined, more weight will be put on Jackson to keep the chains moving. Perhaps he’ll hit 170 passing yards, but I’m more confident that he’ll crack 60 rushing yards.

  • Rushing attempts over 9.5
    (-135) — DraftKings
  • Rushing yards over 60.5
    (-113) — FanDuel
  • Passing yards under 210.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
  • Passing touchdowns under 1.5
    (-138) — FanDuel
  • Interceptions under 0.5
    (-120) — DraftKings

Kenyan Drake Player Props

I like Drake racking up a big chunk of his yards in the air tonight. And I’ve been waiting for this moment, for all my life. (Brief drum riff.)

Rushing yards? Not so much. Assuming I’m correct about New Orleans holding the lead for much of this contest, we’ll see more of Jackson scrambling and dumping off to his RBs.

As good as Drake has been (5.1 yards per carry), let’s remember that the 2-5 Raiders had no use for him this summer. His average 4.1 yards before contact is No. 2 among all RBs, just behind Breece Hall (4.2). But his 1.0 yards after contact places him near the bottom of the pack.

Drake also has yet to break a tackle on 49 carries. Among running backs with at least 30 carries, only Chase Edmonds, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley are part of this exclusive club.

Drake’s impressive stats are due to an unsustainable before-contact average. Once it catches up with him, we’ll see less efficient production and lower yardage outputs.

  • Rushing yards under 44.5
    (-120) — DraftKings
  • Receiving yards over 12.5
    (-115) — DraftKings
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