The San Francisco 49ers‘ decision to draft Florida Gators WR Ricky Pearsall with the No. 31 overall pick caused many fantasy football managers to raise an eyebrow at the future of both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in this high-powered offense.
Assuming both starting receivers are on the roster this year, what impact can fantasy managers expect Pearsall to have in 2024?
Should You Select Ricky Pearsall at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 185th Overall (WR68)
- Loaded Offense: Pearsall joins a San Francisco offense already stacked with talent, including Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. The intense target competition will make it difficult for Pearsall to carve out a significant role in his rookie season.
- Impressive Pre-Draft Process: Pearsall climbed the draft board with strong showings at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine, which led to the 49ers selecting him with the No. 31 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
- Limited Immediate Impact: Given the established playmakers ahead of him, Pearsall’s immediate fantasy outlook is muted. Last year, the fifth option in the 49ers’ passing game, Jauan Jennings, finished with just 33 targets and a WR110 fantasy finish.
- Exceptional Skills: Pearsall is an excellent route runner with top-tier hands and ball skills, which will likely earn him some playing time. However, his fantasy value is limited by the overall lack of passing volume and tough competition for targets.
- Potential Upside: If Aiyuk or Samuel were to be traded, Pearsall’s fantasy value would significantly increase, potentially putting him in the WR3 conversation with WR2 upside. However, this scenario is speculative and not guaranteed.
- ADP Analysis: Pearsall’s ADP at WR68 suggests some interest in his long-term potential, but the lack of a clear path to consistent targets in 2024 makes it difficult to justify drafting him over other options like DeMario Douglas or Malachi Corley.
- Final Verdict: Pearsall is a talented prospect with a bright future, but his rookie year in a crowded 49ers offense may not offer the immediate fantasy value needed to justify his current ADP. He’s more of a high-upside handcuff than a reliable weekly starter for 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Ricky Pearsall
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Pearsall is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
67) Ja’Lynn Polk, WR | New England Patriots
68) Marvin Mims Jr., WR | Denver Broncos
69) Michael Wilson, WR | Arizona Cardinals
70) Ricky Pearsall, WR | San Francisco 49ers
71) Xavier Legette, WR | Carolina Panthers
72) Quentin Johnston, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
73) Malachi Corley, WR | New York Jets
74) Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | New York Giants
75) Elijah Moore, WR | Cleveland Browns
Ricky Pearsall’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Pearsall had an interesting ascent up the big board throughout the pre-draft process, with a solid week at the Senior Bowl and an impressive performance at the NFL Combine. Yet, it still felt like a pretty big surprise when the Niners spent first-round draft capital on him.
San Francisco’s offense is already loaded with exceptional playmakers, with the aforementioned Aiyuk and Samuel paired with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
This roster is easily the biggest detractor from Pearsall’s fantasy outlook heading into his rookie year. To be frank, the target competition early in his career is going to be brutal.
For some additional context, Jauan Jennings finished as a distant fifth on the team in the major statistical categories of targets (33), receptions (19), and receiving yards (265) while scoring just one touchdown.
If Samuel or Aiyuk get traded ahead of the 2024 NFL season, then Pearsall probably jumps ahead in the rankings, but his immediate fantasy expectations should be tempered. This place in the pass-catching pecking order in the 49ers’ offense led to a WR110 fantasy finish last year, which isn’t really enough to get anyone excited for Pearsall.
From a pure tools perspective, Pearsall has the goods. He’s among the best route runners in the class — plenty of nuance with his tempo variation and technique — with some of the best hands and ball skills. That will give him a role early in his career with the Niners, but one that is unlikely to make him a reliable fantasy option in your standard leagues.
The lack of overall passing volume from San Francisco’s offense, paired with exceptionally tough target competition — with four exceptional players seeing 80+ targets and 60+ passes caught in 2023 — simply doesn’t leave enough meat on the bone to make Pearsall a reliable weekly starter this season if the roster remains the same.
On the flip side, if Aiyuk does somehow get dealt at some point prior to the start of the season, then Pearsall’s fantasy value should jump into the WR3 conversation with WR2 upside in this offense.
The upside and skills are present, but banking on the fifth option in a passing attack that averaged just 30 passing attempts per game to have a huge fantasy impact doesn’t feel like a sound strategy.
Is Pearsall Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Pearsall’s ADP at No. 189 (WR67 off the board) certainly isn’t an astronomical price to pay for a player of his talents. For some added context, Pearsall is being drafted just after Jahan Dotson, Gabe Davis, and Ja’Lynn Polk at his position.
I understand the temptation to acquire a talented pass-catching prospect in a high-scoring offense at this price. However, the lack of a weekly floor, given the elite amount of target competition on the 49ers’ roster, makes it tough to justify taking Pearsall over DeMario Douglas, Malachi Corley, or even Darnell Mooney.
I can’t help but feel like Pearsall is more of a high-level handcuff for Aiyuk or Samuel in this offense than a surefire focal piece of the passing attack. I love his long-term outlook, but fantasy managers would be wise to temper expectations for 2024.