2024 ESPN Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Breece Hall Out of Round 1, Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown Pairing, and More

“Fake it until you make it” is something that is often said. The idea being that if you act like you know what you’re doing, eventually you will. In some walks of life this works, but fantasy football is a different beast.

Participating in, or at least consuming the results of, a Superflex mock draft is the best way to prepare for this unique set-up. Most of us believe that we can walk into a draft room and figure things out on the fly, but from roster construction to new player values, winning managers think out a plan ahead of time and look to execute.

With that in mind, here are the results of a recent draft, complete with player breakdowns through the first two rounds and why the selections were made.

2024 PPR Superflex Mock Draft | PPR

1.01) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Shuffle up and deal with the elite quarterbacks however you’d like. It’s irresponsible, in my opinion, to open a Superflex draft with anything besides a signal-caller at 1.01. The stability of this position is second to none, and with needing two of them, why not lock in a top-tier option when given the chance?

In drafting a QB first overall, you not only get the strong weekly production with the narrowest range of outcomes, but you also open yourself up to reading the draft board in the coming rounds. Many managers will feel the pressure of needing to reach on a second quarterback, but you’re afforded the luxury of waiting if you so choose because you took on essentially no risk when filling your QB1 slot.

As for Jalen Hurts himself, the addition of Saquon Barkley is more additive to this offense as a whole than a threat to subtract in a major way from his quarterback’s statistical bottom line. Hurts’ carry count could fall a touch, but the quality of each rush attempt figures to rise due to the defensive attention his All-Pro running back will demand.

Hurts nearly had more red-zone rush attempts (43) than pass attempts (50) in 2023. And until the NFL finds a way to slow him down in close, his short-yardage rushing production is the single safest aspect of fantasy football and has allowed him to lead the position with 13 games of 25+ fantasy points over the past two seasons.

We can fight as to who the best QB is at this spot, but don’t get cute and move off of the position at the top of the board. Please.

1.02) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Worry not about a production downturn in 2023. The numbers were down, but I’d argue that you should be encouraged.

Wait, what?

Patrick Mahomes showcased the ability to use his mind as a weapon. The best way for the Chiefs to win games last season wasn’t for him to put up video-game numbers, and he fell in line.

That hurt fantasy managers, but it could help in a major way in 2024. Gone is L’Jarius Sneed and in are a pair of field-stretchers in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, although Brown suffered a shoulder injury in the preseason opener that could linger into the early portion of the regular season. Kansas City’s path to a three-peat figures to look a bit different and that should result in a bounce back campaign.

I’m talking as if Mahomes sunk your team last season. For a sixth straight season, he cleared 4,000 passing yards and for a fourth straight, he racked up 300+ yards on the ground.

Assuming that the Chiefs deep drop rate (6.8%, second highest in the league) trends closer to average, Mahomes’ name will be back atop leaderboards on a weekly basis.

1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Would you believe me if putting Josh Allen as QB3 is a hot take?

It’s true. The King of the North has finished each of the past four seasons as a top-two producer at the position, a run of dominance that is in the rarest of territory.

That said, that stretch conveniently started the season that Stefon Diggs came over from the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran is, along with Gabe Davis, no longer there to help elevate Allen as a passer, and that level of change is enough for me to slide him into the back end of my top tier at the position.

The way I have this projected is for Allen to potentially struggle early as he looks to develop a connection with his new running mates. Normally, I wouldn’t have a problem with a late-season peak, but will the schedule allow for that?

• Week 13 vs. 49ers
• Week 16 vs. Patriots
• Week 17 vs. Jets

All of those are home games, but they are tough matchups and I’m lukewarm on if Buffalo’s pass game will be explosive enough to stabilize Allen’s value enough when your season is on the line.

1.04) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular-season games with the Niners. Over that stretch he has averaged 38.5% more PPR PPG than any other running back (minimum 20 games played), a gap that is hard to comprehend.

His versatility gives him a floor that is unheard of and he’s the member of this offense I’m least worried about statistically should Brock Purdy experience the near inevitable regression.

1.05) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy’s top scoring receiver from 2023 is the clear alpha for a team that was the highest-scoring unit in the league and which figures to continue committing to the pass game at as high a rate as anyone.

The argument for CeeDee Lamb is simple – elite ceiling and elite floor. He had more catches than all but 17 players had targets last season, and there is really no reason to think 2024 looks any different. Dallas’ star has improved his fantasy points per target, yards per route, and target-share numbers during all four of his seasons, growth that will eventually level off. But he’s at the point now where a repeat performance is plenty acceptable.

I have Brandin Cooks penciled in for some serious regression, and if that is accurate, the upside here only grows. Invest with the utmost confidence in all formats.

1.06) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

The reigning MVP has seen his fantasy points per pass improve in consecutive seasons – not bad for a running back, right? Lamar Jackson may never be Mahomes when it comes to throwing the ball, but it’s impossible to overlook his development.

In 2023, a career-high 69.2% of Jackson’s fantasy points were earned through the air. That speaks to the offensive mind of Todd Monken and should provide you with confidence that he can produce at an elite level, even with the Derrick Henry addition this offseason.

Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely are a pair of young pieces that could take a serious step forward in Year 2 under Monken, creating a fantasy profile for Jackson that is without holes.

1.07) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill made mention of Jaylen Waddle being the future of the position in Miami, and while I believe that, the future isn’t now. I like Waddle plenty, but this is Hill’s show. Until the NFL as a whole proves capable of stopping him from making splash plays, we have to assume that there simply is no answer for the man they call Cheetah.

From a football nerd point of view, Hill is an interesting test case in the impact of scheme. He has seen his slot usage dip in a meaningful way since joining the ‘Fins, but his target rate when he ends up there has skyrocketed. The pre-snap motion that Miami runs is essentially a magnet that is attracted to mismatches – it detects the deficiency and then clings to it. This is an offense that is smarter than most and is using a chess piece in Hill that needs minimal space to flip the field.

1.08) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

The super sophomore is in the top three in betting markets in terms of favorites to lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns this season, optimism that is difficult to dismiss. After a historic rookie campaign, C.J. Stroud now has access to veteran skill-position players (Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs) in addition to a pair of budding stars (Nico Collins and Tank Dell).

Potentially worrisome for Houston bettors is the fact that this defense was fourth worst on a per-pass basis, but that’s good news for fantasy investors. Stroud is going to be leaned on heavily and that gives him the chance to put his name among the elite at the position.

Stroud has said this offseason that he wants to stretch the field more this year. That’s coming from a player that saw 41.9% of his passing fantasy points come on deep throws (highest among QBs to finish in the top 25 at the position) is enough for some to think that he could replicate Patrick Mahomes’ second NFL season (5,097 yards and 50 TDs).

That’s a little aggressive for me, but the fact that the conversation can be had should give you confidence in building a winner around him.

1.09) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

If we had the opportunity to build a fantasy quarterback in a lab, it would resemble Anthony Richardson. In fact, it might come up short in some of the measurables because we love competition and would fear that creating such a player would be too much of a cheat code.

He’s Josh Allen, but with a 40-yard dash time that is 6.7% faster. He’s Justin Fields, but 15-20 pounds heavier.

He might be what Daunte Culpepper would have been if he was born 25 years later and went through the same training programs. And guess what? Culpepper was QB1 in Years 2-4 and it wasn’t close (5.3% more PPG than QB2 and 12.8% more PPG than QB3).

I’m not setting the bar that high due to the depth of the position and the slanted rules these days, but much like Victor Wembanyama in the NBA, we could be looking at a player that makes us question how our fantasy game is played/scored.

1.10) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson was featured in my Bold Predictions article for a ceiling that is nothing short of historic and I believe it. There were five times during his rookie season, in a vanilla offense, in which he had multiple 10+ yard carries while also running at least 25 routes.

Christian McCaffrey is a generational player and there is no guarantee that there is another version of him in the making as he ages, but Robinson has as good a stake to the claim as “next” as anyone in the league.

What we saw from Robinson last season might go down in history as something of a floor – his fantasy points per target and rush were nothing more than ordinary when comparing him to the 49 qualified running backs. Assuming that the touch count stays high – there’s a chance he is as valuable as any player picked in the first round.

2.01) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray is the last of the dual-threat quarterbacks that could lead the position in scoring this season. Of course, there are injury concerns to overcome given his size and the potential for a learning curve as this young offense develops, but if you’re playing to win your league, you’re looking for elite form down the stretch and that is very much possible.

Murray was QB4 in 2020, his only season where both he and his star WR1 were healthy. He opened up that campaign with nine straight top-10 performances (six of which were top-five finishes) and that is the selling point – consistency.

An elite athlete at the position has the ability to own an elevated floor and that is even more true with a game-changing pass catcher – and we think he has two! If you’re swinging big at the beginning of your Superflex draft, this is exactly the type of profile I want. Entering 2024, a healthy Murray, in my opinion, has a better chance of winning you your league than he does failing in a significant way.

2.02) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

There are 32 teams in the NFL. Breece Hall played every game last season.

Both of those things are true and yet, Hall ranked 34th at the position in red-zone touches in 2023. Throw a dart at an offensive leaderboard and the Jets were a bottom-three team last season (red-zone drives, yards per game, yards per play, third-down conversion rate, etc.) – no matter your thoughts on Aaron Rodgers, a repeat performance is unlikely to happen.

How high Hall rises up your ranks depends on your confidence level in this offense as a whole. I’m reasonably bullish and that is how he sneaks into the first round here, but even if you’re not, he’s not getting past the middle of the second round.

There’s slightly more offensive risk in New York than Atlanta and that gives Robinson the slight edge in my rankings. That said, it’s close and both are foundational pieces that you can rely on in a major way.

2.03) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Most drafts work this way where Lamb and Hill are viewed as a tier of their own. I have it ranked that way as well, but that’s a range-of-outcomes thing – I label Ja’Marr Chase’s week-to-week upside on par with anyone at the position.

Chase is the sixth-highest-scoring receiver (PPR PPG) since entering the league and averages more points per target over that stretch (2.00) than Lamb. Investing in Chase is a pseudo bet on Joe Burrow’s health and that is the thought process in ranking him at the top of Tier 2 instead of as a part of Tier 1.

This is a Tier-1 talent.

2.04) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

The reigning passing champion is as safe as it gets due to the talent that insulates him in Miami. In addition to a pair of star receivers, the Dolphins now have more potential at the tight-end position (Jonnu Smith) and added another track star to their backfield (Jaylen Wright).

Splash plays are fluky – until they aren’t. In the same way that the peak Golden State Warriors defied logic for most teams, this Dolphins team is built for the big plays. Tua Tagovailoa had eight games last season with a 35+ yard touchdown pass, the most in a single season over the past eight years.

This is a rare offense and one that you can count on for weekly production from the quarterback position. You also get the added bonus in this specific exercise of pairing a non-mobile QB with his top pass catcher, something I like to do whenever possible.

2.05) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Remember when we weren’t sure if Amon-Ra St. Brown’s late-season spike was a flash in the pan or not? I think it’s safe to say those times are in the past and that Detroit has one of the premier talents in the game.

PPR PPG since St. Brown’s breakout in Week 13, 2021

• Justin Jefferson: 21.1
• Tyreek Hill: 20.2
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
• Cooper Kupp: 19.6
• CeeDee Lamb: 19.6

He’s posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28%, and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone. St. Brown can get open in a phone booth – it’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations.

2.06) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott is symbolic of how fantasy managers have to look at the game differently than casual NFL fans. Ask Joe from accounting or cousin Suzy about their impression of Dallas’ QB and you’re going to get an answer that sounds something like: “Do it in the playoffs”.

There’s nothing wrong with that take – it just doesn’t matter for us. He had seven weeks last season in which he produced top-three numbers at the position as the sheer volume of attempts made him a weekly asset.

Why would we expect that to change? The Cowboys’ running back position remains underwhelming, and he has access to one of the best receivers in the game and an upward trending tight end.

2.07) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

From a process standpoint, in the second round of a Superflex league, I’m taking a QB under the age of 30 who was QB4 during his Year 2-3 stretch and largely returns the same roster.

That’s the situation we find ourselves in with Joe Burrow. As long as all health hurdles are cleared come draft day, he’s a solid buy. During that 2021-22 run, he had multiple touchdown passes in 22 of 32 games and led the league in passer rating.

Visual at how the #FantasyFootball landscape has shifted in terms of QB scoring over the past decade. These lists are sorted by the top PPG QBs in the respective 5-year samples (per @TruMediaSports) pic.twitter.com/ayRlMJllrX

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 26, 2024

The ability to rack up points on the ground is becoming closer to mandated than a nice-to-have bonus at the QB position. Burrow has the ability to ascend above that due to the big-play nature of his receivers, but don’t lose track of the fact that he ran for five touchdowns in his last healthy season.

2.08) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

I’m happy to make the argument in redraft, one-QB leagues that Barkley is deserving of first-round consideration. With Jalen Hurts’ unique skill set, Philadelphia spreads out defenses via shotgun snaps, a tendency that should work well given how good we’ve seen Saquon Barkley be in space.

Since 2021, offenses with 70% of first down snaps in shotgun

1. 2021 Eagles: 73%
2. 2022 Eagles: 72%
3. 2023 Eagles: 70%

That’s the entire list. Barkley’s Giants didn’t clear 50% in any of his three seasons since his ACL tear in 2020, but they did trend up over that stretch, and it helped him total 1,242 yards and 10 scores in 14 games while playing for the third-worst scoring offense in the league.

At 27 years old, it’s fair to think that Barkley could be at the peak of his powers as he joins the best offense he’s been a part of – the time to buy an elite talent at a minor discount is right now.

2.09) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Even in a 2023 season that was disjointed due to injuries, Jonathan Taylor kept doing what Taylor does – find paydirt. He enters this season having scored in six straight games, a run that saw him reach 18 carries five times. The volume and talent aren’t in question – if Anthony Richardson can elevate this to a top-10 offense, a vintage JT season is possible.

It feels like a while ago, but don’t forget that Taylor led the position in PPR points during his first two seasons, delivering production that was 21.7% over expectation based on where his touches took place.

Taylor isn’t going to come cheap this season, but this could well look like a discount come August 2025.

2.10) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles on consecutive picks? You bet.

Your gut reaction may be that a bet on Barkley is one against A.J. Brown, but both players can return a profit for fantasy managers.

Generally speaking, averaging 16 PPR PPG is a strong season for Flex players. We saw 21 players get there last season – four offenses (49ers, Dolphins, Rams, and Lions) produced nine of those players, with three (Buccaneers, Bengals, and Colts) just missing.

Brown saw his target share increase in his second season with the Eagles and increased his end-zone target count for a fourth consecutive season. He, along with the rest of this offense, trailed off at the end of last season. That resulted in no real playoff success for fantasy teams that were counting on Philadelphia’s WR1, though I think the physical limitations of Hurts over that stretch were to blame.

2024 PPR Superflex Mock Draft Rounds 3-6

3.01) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
3.02) Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
3.03) Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
3.04) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
3.05) Derrick Henry, RB, BAL
3.06) Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
3.07) Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
3.08) Jordan Love, QB, GB
3.09) Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
3.10) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF

4.01) Brock Purdy, QB, SF
4.02) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
4.03) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
4.04) De’Von Achane, RB, MIA
4.05) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
4.06) Isaiah Pacheco, RB, KC
4.07) Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
4.08) Chris Olave, WR, NO
4.09) Davante Adams, WR, LV
4.10) Drake London, WR, ATL

5.01) Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
5.02) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
5.03) Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
5.04) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
5.05) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
5.06) Jared Goff, QB, DET
5.07) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
5.08) Mike Evans, WR, TB
5.09) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.10) James Cook, RB, BUF

6.01) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
6.02) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
6.03) Rachaad White, RB, TB
6.04) Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
6.05) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
6.06) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
6.07) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
6.08) Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
6.09) Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
6.10) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU