“Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.”
This saying was beaten into my head growing up and even as the tasks change, I’ve found that mantra is accurate in all walks of life. No single fantasy football mock draft is going to look exactly like the draft room you step into when it counts, but with every trial run, you gain a better understanding of what your opposition is most likely to do.
Given that you only pick once per round and spectate for the rest, it wouldn’t be difficult to argue that you should be putting in as much work on your opposing managers as you do the players that will populate your roster. Here is what a recent 12-team PPR mock draft looked like today, now that we are past the preseason. Best of luck this draft season!
Which Player Should Be Selected First in Redraft in 2024?
1.01) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The concerns about Christian McCaffrey after a few injury-riddled seasons have evaporated thanks to the All-Pro piling up 3,233 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 27 regular-season games with the Niners.
Over that stretch, he’s averaged 38.5% more PPR points per game than any other running back (minimum 20 games played) — a gap that is hard to comprehend. The video game numbers don’t get any easier to digest if you shrink the sample – he posted 122.6 more PPR points than RB2 last season.
McCaffrey’s versatility gives him a floor that is unheard of. He’s the one member of San Francisco’s offense I’m least worried about statistically should Brock Purdy experience the near-inevitable regression.
1.02) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy’s top-scoring receiver from 2023 is the clear alpha for the highest-scoring team in the league that figures to continue to commit to the passing game at as high a rate as anyone.
The argument for CeeDee Lamb is simple — elite ceiling and elite floor.
Lamb had more receptions than all but 17 players had targets last season, and there’s no reason to think 2024 looks any different. Dallas’ star has improved his fantasy points per target, yards per route, and target share numbers during all four of his seasons. That growth will eventually level off, but he’s at the point now where a repeat performance is plenty acceptable.
I have Brandin Cooks penciled in for some serious regression, and if that is accurate, the upside here only grows. Invest with the utmost confidence in all formats for the top player in an offense that traveled to the red zone on a league-high 41.8% of drives a season ago.
1.03) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
There are 32 teams in the NFL. Hall played every game last season.
Both of those things are true, and yet, Hall ranked 34th at the position in red-zone touches in 2023.
Throw a dart at an offensive leaderboard, and the Jets were bottom-three last season (red-zone drives, yards per game, yards per play, third-down conversion rate, etc.).
No matter your thoughts on Aaron Rodgers, a repeat performance of last year’s quarterback play is unlikely. I mean, New York got inside their opponents’ 20-yard line on just 17.8% of drives last season, the second-lowest and essentially half the rate that Rodgers’ Packers got there during his final two seasons at Lambeau (35.4%).
How high Hall climbs your ranks depends on your confidence level in the Jets offense as a whole. I’m reasonably bullish, and that is why he is one of the rare skill position players I’d take in the first round of a Superflex setting. This league only requires one quarterback, so you have the green light to select him any time after 1.01.
1.04) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Hill mentioned Jaylen Waddle as the future of the position in Miami, and while I believe that, the future isn’t now. I like Waddle plenty, but this is Hill’s show, and until the NFL as a whole proves capable of stopping him from making splash plays, we have to assume that there simply is no answer for the man they call Cheetah.
From a football nerd’s point of view, Hill is an interesting case study on the impact of one’s scheme. He’s seen his slot usage dip in a meaningful way since joining the ‘Fins, but his target rate when he ends up there has skyrocketed. The pre-snap motion that Miami runs is essentially a magnet that is attracted to mismatches; it detects the deficiency and then clings to it.
The team’s 17.6% play-action rate (second highest) was just another way to put defenses in a bind. It takes very little hesitation for a splash play to happen and Hill to swing your matchup.
1.05) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson was featured in my bold predictions article for a ceiling that is nothing short of historic, and I believe it. There were five times during Robinson’s rookie season, in a vanilla offense, in which he had multiple 10+ yard carries while also running at least 25 routes.
McCaffrey is a generational player, and there’s no guarantee that another version of him will emerge as he ages. But Robinson has as good a stake in the claim as “next” as anyone in the league.
What we saw from Robinson last season might go down in history as something of a floor. His fantasy points per target and rush were nothing more than ordinary when comparing him to the 49 qualified running backs. Assuming that the touch count stays high (ATL ranked second in pace last season – they could combine quality with quantity in 2024), there’s a chance he’s as valuable as any player picked in Round 1.
1.06) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Remember when we weren’t sure if St. Brown’s late-season spike was a flash in the pan or not? I think it’s safe to say those times are in the past and that Detroit has one of the premier talents in the game.
PPR PPG Since St. Brown’s Breakout in Week 13, 2021
- Justin Jefferson: 21.1
- Tyreek Hill: 20.2
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 19.7
- Cooper Kupp: 19.6
- CeeDee Lamb: 19.6
St. Brown has posted consecutive seasons with a target share north of 28%, and the scariest part of his entire profile is the room for growth. In those two seasons, just seven of his 310 targets (2.3%) have come in the end zone (DET ranked 27th in red zone pass rate last season).
St. Brown can get open in a phone booth. It’s only a matter of time until that skill is unlocked in a major way in scoring situations for an offense that ranked third in yards per play a season ago.
1.07) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Most drafts work this way, with Lamb and Hill viewed as a tier of their own. I have it ranked that way as well, but that’s a range of outcomes thing. I label Chase’s week-to-week upside on par with anyone at the position.
Chase is the sixth-highest-scoring receiver (PPR points per game) since entering the league and averages more points per target over that stretch (2.00) than Lamb. Investing in Chase is a pseudo bet on Joe Burrow’s health, which is the thought process in ranking him at the top of Tier 2 instead of being a part of Tier 1.
This is a Tier 1 talent who plays for a team that ranked 10th in red-zone pass rate last season despite the mounting injuries.
1.08) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The talent is second to none. Justin Jefferson is the standard for production through four NFL seasons, and he proved it again last year by finishing fourth at the position in yards per route run despite injuries to both him and Kirk Cousins. That ranked him ahead of Lamb and St. Brown, who both had career seasons.
That said, we are nitpicking at the top of the position, and it’s impossible to overlook the uncertainty under center.
MORE: PFN Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Sam Darnold has never supported a receiver averaging even 14.5 PPR PPG for a season and that is why Jefferson has “fallen” to this point. That’s a valid concern, but it is worth noting that Minnesota’s WR1 averaged more receptions per route without Kirk Cousins last season than with him and that he still cleared 2.0 PPR points per target in those situations (the 4.3% dip from his rate with Cousins isn’t enough to worry in a major way about).
In those games without Cousins, Jefferson saw his aDOT swell, and that comes with some risk if you’re worried about the quality of opportunity. There’s a wider range of weekly outcomes for the best receiver in the game, but in the end, I expect the counting numbers to be impressive.
1.09) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
I’m guessing if you polled your friends as to how old Taylor is, they’d come in high because he has been on our radar for his entire career. The truth is, we are talking about a 25-year-old back with an elite resume who is now a featured part of possibly the best offense he’s ever contributed to.
With 44 scores in 53 career games and a proven versatile skill set, why can’t JT be a major difference-maker? Anthony Richardson’s unique skill set creates some concerns, though I’d argue that his ability to extend plays/drives just raises the scoring floor of this offense — that’s a good thing for Taylor.
There might be some learning curve moments early in the season and that’s fine. Indy has a Week 14 bye, rest that figures to have their bellcow RB close to full strength come the fantasy postseason, a stretch that sees him face the Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants.
1.10) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles made it known this offseason that they were thrilled to have Brown as their alpha receiver when they rewarded him with a three-year extension. At the time, this deal carried the highest per-year figure ($32 million) ever paid to a wide receiver.
That’s plenty of motivation for Brown to perform and for the Birds to put him in a position to succeed. The addition of Saquon Barkley this offseason has some fantasy managers worried about the food that could come off Brown’s plate, but I’d argue the opposite is true.
Barkley garners the respect of defenses, and that can only help Brown find more space to operate. By adding a former All-Pro back, the offensive environment only stands to improve. And where there are scoring opportunities, there are Brown fantasy points to be had.
Last season, despite a “disappointing” seven touchdowns (Brown scored 11 times on 18 fewer catches in his first season with the Eagles), he saw 2.5 times as many red-zone targets as DeVonta Smith.
Since joining Philadelphia, Brown has yet to miss a game, and while the nature of the Eagles’ offense has the potential to lead to some down weeks, let’s not forget that it was less than a year ago that he broke Calvin Johnson’s record for consecutive games with 125+ receiving yards.
The reward for the season as a whole outweighs the weekly risk when it comes to the Eagles’ WR1 — and it’s not close.
1.11) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Are you trying to win your league?
If so, you’re very much considering Wilson at the 1-2 turn. Some managers lean on the conservative side through the first few rounds and that can have success, but it can also limit the upside you have access to.
The talent of Wilson is no secret, making him essentially a bet on Rodgers. Fading the veteran QB is understandable, but he doesn’t have to be the four-time MVP version of himself for this pick to pay off.
Last season, Wilson ranked as the WR4 in terms of expected fantasy points and finished WR26 (total PPR points). The prime version of Rodgers would have his WR1 challenging for that title in our fantasy game — we don’t need that, we just need Rodgers to rank in the top third of QBs this season for Wilson to return on this investment.
You can draft safety later. You’re playing to win your league by plucking Wilson off the board before he can truly explode.
1.12) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:
- Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
- Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share
Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of enticing.
Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000. With a friendly schedule in terms of weatherproof games, this offense is a true threat to be as effective as any in the league, and that could vault their star running back into the Tier 1 conversation sooner than later.
2.01) Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy is a game that isn’t much different from the stock market — you want to buy low and sell high. I’m not suggesting that Barkley is cheap, but after a down season and general stench around the Giants, I think some have lost touch with the upside in Barkley’s profile.
Seasons with 1,300 rush yards and 120 targets
- 2003 LaDainian Tomlinson
- 2018 Saquon Barkley
- 2019 Christian McCaffrey
We play this game to win. Not to come in second place and not to sit in the middle of the standings, but to finish atop the standings. Barkley is available at the first/second-round turn in most spots and is the last player, in my opinion, coming off the board who has a reasonable chance to lead all Flex players in PPR fantasy points this season.
I understand that there are plenty of talented options and that receivers carry less risk than running backs, but what more could you ask for from a fantasy RB?
https://t.co/V0eVU5GrOh pic.twitter.com/o7lFR0MnGV
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 24, 2024
Barkley is entering his age-27 season (over the past 15 seasons, the majority of the 25 highest-scoring seasons from a PPR RB has come from a player aged 25-28) and leaving an offense that ranked 31st in success rate.
He’s joining a team that ranked fifth despite every running back on its roster checking in below expectation when comparing their opportunity-adjusted fantasy scoring.
With everything around him going wrong, Barkley posted a career-high in fantasy points per target last season (1.58 PPR points) and picked up 10+ yards on 10.5% of his carries, a rate that is spot on to his career rate.
2.02) Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
During his breakout campaign, Williams caught only 66.7% of his targets. Running back catch rate is consistently in the 70% region, and due to the low-risk nature of those targets, there’s no real reason to think that he won’t trend upward. If that happens, he may not only return first-round value, but he also stands to join the top tier at the position.
Last season, Williams showcased elite vision and physical running. He led all qualified RBs (minimum 110 carries) in yards per carry gained before contact, a stat that speaks to his connectivity with the offensive line as well as his ability to take advantage of overcommitted defenders.
And once Williams gets running downhill, forget about it.
Off the top of your head, who are some of the hardest runners in the league?
Taylor (one broken tackle every 12.1 carries in 2023), Derrick Henry (12.2), and Isiah Pacheco (13.7) all likely come to mind.
Well, Williams shed a defender once every 11 carries a season ago, putting him in a position to repeat or even improve upon his efficiency. The Blake Corum truthers out there are loud, and they might not be wrong. He put nice tape out there while at Michigan, but what’s the end game in 2024?
Does he take 10% of Williams’ base work? Could you talk yourself up to 15%? Even if that occurs, 85% of Williams’ role last season finishes as RB7 in terms of touches per game. Don’t overreact to the drafting of Corum – Williams’ role is a good bet to remain as strong as any in the game today.
2.03) Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Henry hasn’t missed more than a single game in seven of his eight NFL seasons, and he has reached at least 14 total touchdowns in four of his past five campaigns. The concerns around Henry have always been the same: he doesn’t catch enough passes. Fortunately, scoring TDs has elevated his floor in the way that most backs rely on the passing game.
That said, Henry has caught 81.4% of his targets over the past three seasons. So while I’m not putting 50-catch expectations on him, who’s to say he can’t top 33 receptions for the first time in his career as a focal piece of Todd Monken’s offense?
There are also some concerns out there that Lamar Jackson’s athleticism could cut into Henry’s bottom line. I’ll listen to the train of thought that 100 rushing yards per game is unlikely — despite Henry having been in that range in four straight seasons before 2023 — but Jackson doesn’t profile as a threat the way Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts are in terms of touchdown equity.
Jackson’s best season in total rushing touchdowns saw fewer scores than those two bulldozers average per season, so I’m not sweating that. Yes, he’ll chew up some yards, but if that means extending drives and delivering Henry to the goal line, isn’t that a net positive?
Draft Henry for the elevated floor and hope that this perfect situation results in a historic touchdown season.
2.04) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
A mid-August knee injury caused the fantasy community to fret a bit, but it seems like Nacua will be OK to open the season and build on his historic rookie campaign.
In his first season, Nacua ranked sixth in on-field target share (27.6%). While it is true that Matthew Stafford preferred Cooper Kupp in the red zone, the BYU product had more end-zone targets than St. Brown and Michael Pittman Jr. combined.
As long as the 36-year-old Stafford remains healthy, you can feel confident in both Rams receivers. This is a very concentrated offense with one of the most receiver-friendly signal callers for featured targets in the history of this sport. Getting exposure to this offense is something that winning teams did in 2023 and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was again the case.
2.05) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
At this point, you’re well aware of what Harrison did in college. In earning the “generational prospect” label by some, he racked up 2,368 yards and 26 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Ohio State, numbers that have a chance to translate to the professional game as he walks into a clear WR1 role.
We’ve seen a rookie WR crash the party and average north of 17 PPR PPG in three of the past four seasons (Jefferson in 2020, Chase in 2021, and Nacua last season). Gone are the days of worrying if a prospect can turn collegiate dominance into profitable returns for fantasy managers – long gone.
2.06) Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
There are four running backs with at least 2,100 rushing yards and 100 targets over the past two seasons – three of them have a top-three finish at the position (PPR) and the other is named Etienne.
In fantasy sports, I generally believe that – in the middle of the age curve – once a player proves he has a skill, he owns it. That sounds reasonably simple, but every season, ADPs tend to forget some past production.
Etienne’s upside is the perfect example of applying this train of thought, and that is why I’m going to have some shares this season. Entering his age-25 campaign, we’ve seen him do it all.
KEEP READING: PPR Fantasy Rankings
After missing his rookie year, Etienne thrived in space as a runner (5.1 yards per carry) and showed the type of explosive potential we look for from a first-year ball carrier in Year 2. As a third-year player, he not only gave us the production as the pass catcher he was tabbed to be (13 more catches in 2023 than targets the season prior), but he proved himself more than capable of handling volume at 19.1 touches per game.
What more could we ask for?
His upside may not be as evident at the next player picked, but don’t be fooled, he is plenty capable of posting a monster season.
2.07) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
What Achane did as a rookie was as impressive as anything we saw during the 2023 season. His suddenness with the ball in his hands popped off the screen and his ability to hit holes at full speed was years ahead of what you’d expect from a first-year back.
Impressive but unsustainable.
Working on some running back #FantasyFootball analysis …
Borderline impossible to overstate what Achane did last season.
(fantasy stats / expected fantasy stats) pic.twitter.com/QzkGiCzji7
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 14, 2024
It’s important to not get too carried away with your expectations. Simply extrapolating his numbers from last season to a full workload this year is irresponsible. Miami can attack defenses in a variety of ways and that naturally going to result in some poor weeks for all involved.
In addition to natural regression, we have to listen to what the Dolphins told us with the drafting of Jaylen Wright – they don’t want a heavily featured running back.
The home run-hitting style of Achane is intoxicating, and I do not doubt that we will see plenty of spike performances in 2024. Are you the type of manager that can withstand those swings from your second pick?
2.08) Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Even with Jakobi Meyers out-producing his expectations, Adams finished 2023 with more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined. The team made TE Brock Bowers the 13th overall pick in April, and he’ll see his fair share of opportunities, but I find it hard to believe that he subtracts much from Adams’ statistical bottom line.
The decision from this team to open the season with Gardner Minshew under center is a good thing for Adams. Last season, Jakobi Meyers was the most efficient Raiders receiver with Aidan O’Connell, and we’ve seen Minshew feature his WR1 in a meaningful way (just ask managers with Pittman last season).
In 37 career starts, Minshew has produced 31 instances in which a WR cleared 15 PPR fantasy points – I expect that rate to continue in Vegas. Adams is the clear favorite to be the primary beneficiary,
2.09) Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to overstate how impressive that is. And with the Rutgers product at the peak of his powers, there’s no reason to bet against him in what figures again to be one of the best offenses in the NFL.
The YAC (yards after contact) on rushing attempts is here to stay as long as he’s healthy. Pacheco is a downhill runner who often has space to operate due to the respect given to Patrick Mahomes. I love that stability, but in an era where few two-down RBs consistently grace fantasy lineups, Pacheco’s receiving growth in 2023 has me confident in paying for his services this season.
Last season, Pacheco had nine games with at least three grabs – not bad for a player who averaged under a target per game as a rookie. There was one player last season with at least 50 catches and 1,100 rushing yards, and he happens to be the 1.01 pick in most fantasy leagues.
Why can’t Pacheco hit those benchmarks in 2024?
2.10) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
We may not have a season worth of counting numbers to tell us that London is as good as we think, but his ability to do what he has given the circumstances deservingly has earned him our trust.
Consider this – in 2023, as a part of a vanilla offense that threatened essentially nobody, he saw 30.9% of his targets come 15+ yards downfield (third-highest among the receivers that have been drafted up to this point). That may not seem like a big deal, but with coverages skewed his way and limited upside under center, earning those types of targets was more difficult for him than most.
With breadcrumbs like that scattered across his statistical profile, you’re justified in drafting him as your WR1 with Kirk Cousins now calling the shots. He’s not going to put up the numbers that Jefferson did with Cousins, but he’s the clear-cut WR1 and offers more safety than box score watchers realize.
2.11) Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers brought him in from Vegas as a way to get younger, sure, but also to help finish drives. They ranked 19th in red zone offense a season ago, scoring a touchdown on just 51.6% of their trips inside the 20.
Since 2021, Rush TD% Inside The 10-yard Line
- Josh Jacobs: 33.3%
- NFL RB Average: 28.9%
- Aaron Jones: 18.2%
Do I have my efficiency concerns about Jacobs? Of course I do, but touchdowns should drive his value and this team figures to be in scoring position as often as any team in the league. There will be some ugly weeks this season, but that’s the case for most running backs. Pay for the stability of scoring.
2.12) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
I get this question a lot and the answer is “no.” No, I don’t mind pairing teammates like what this manager did with McCaffrey and Aiyuk. I wouldn’t go out of my way to do it, but if two players from a specific offense are viable selections inside of the top 50 overall players, that offense likely carries more than enough upside to support both of them.
It helps that I am lower on Deebo Samuel Sr. than most, but the logic sticks – an efficient offense that is going to be in scoring position consistently is OK to double-dip with.
Aiyuk owned the highest aDOT (average depth of target) of any receiver selected in the first two rounds of this mock draft and has shown the ability to win at every level with Brock Purdy under center.
In a perfect world, he would have had a quieter offseason, but he’s returning to an offense that welcomes back the same pieces that saw him post the most efficient fantasy season (points above expectation) for a receiver with 105+ targets since Andre Johnson in 2008.
2024 Redraft PPR Mock Draft Rounds 3-6
3.01) Nico Collins, WR, HOU
3.02) Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.03) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, SF
3.04) Josh Allen, QB, BUF
3.05) Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
3.06) Mike Evans, WR, TB
3.07) Rashee Rice, WR, KC
3.08) Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.09) Rachaad White, RB, TB
3.10) Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.11) Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
3.12) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
4.01) Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
4.02) Travis Kelce, TE, KC
4.03) DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
4.04) Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
4.05) Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA
4.06) James Cook, RB, BUF
4.07) Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
4.08) DJ Moore, WR, CHI
4.09) Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
4.10) Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
4.11) Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
4.12) C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
5.01) James Conner, RB, ARI
5.02) Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
5.03) Trey McBride, TE, ARI
5.04) Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
5.05) David Montgomery, RB, DET
5.06) DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
5.07) Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
5.08) Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
5.09) Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5.10) Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
5.11) D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
5.12) Tank Dell, WR, HOU
6.01) Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.02) Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
6.03) Najee Harris, RB, PIT
6.04) Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
6.05) Zamir White, RB, LV
6.06) George Pickens, WR, PIT
6.07) George Kittle, TE, SF
6.08) Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
6.09) Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
6.10) Calvin Ridley, WR, TEN
6.11) Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
6.12) Christian Kirk, WR, JAX