The RB start/sit coin flips can be some of the most difficult week over week. They also tend to dictate matchups. Fantasy football managers who attempt to take the emotion out of it and evaluate the data are the ones who tend to have the most success. At the very least, you have a consistent process to fall back on — or you can choose to rely on me.
Many like that option: I’ll take the blame if it goes sideways, and you can victory lap otherwise!
What should you make of the fringe options at the position this week? I’m glad you asked.
Data from TruMedia, unless stated otherwise.
Which Running Backs Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 2?
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (vs. SF)
Jones and Jordan Mason rank in the same tier for me this week. In his Vikings debut, Jones played the majority of snaps and rewarded his new team by producing 54.3% over expectation (2023: 12.7% below expectation).
We saw Jones thrive in Week 1 last season too, so let’s not get out of control. He drew a plus-matchup, and with Darnold opening his season as efficiently as anyone, the stage was set. I think his best days are behind him and am not willing to admit that we were wrong in our offseason evaluation of this offense.
As skeptical as I am, Jones’ touch count projects favorably enough to make him a low-end RB2 in this difficult spot.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at DEN)
If you’ve played in the same league for a while, the odds are good that everyone has had their turn rostering Harris, plugging him in as an unsatisfying RB2, and moving on with their life. It’s a right of passage. And once every manager in your league has shared that experience, you’ve formed a bond.
Sadly, nothing is different this time around. With a compromised Warren, Harris wasn’t any different than you would have guessed – he just did it on a few more touches.
Harris accounted for 20 of 26 Pittsburgh running back carries and, if not for an outlier 20-yard “burst,” we are looking at a 19-carry, 50-yard day at the office along with two catches for nine yards.
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If that’s not vintage Harris, I don’t know what is.
With Warren still at far less than full strength and the Steelers facing the Broncos and their blitzing, I’d expect something very similar this week.
Against the Falcons, Harris finished as RB35 in fantasy points and RB19 in expected points. Split the difference; move him up a few spots for the safety of his role and poor matchups for others – yep, an unappealing RB2 for the 47th consecutive week.
Which Running Backs Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 2?
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (at HOU)
The receivers have value to gain as Williams finds his NFL legs, but Swift’s stock might have the most room to grow as the rookie quarterback develops.
In the season opener, there was nothing in the way of competition for Swift managers to sweat (67.9% snap share, the only Chicago RB to reach even 21%).
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The zero receiving yards last week sticks out, but the fact that Swift ran 20 routes provides me with long-term hope. He’ll be better in that regard, likely sooner than later, and I expect his rushing success rate to also correlate with Williams’ comfort level.
Swift’s Week 1 breakdown:
- His 20-yard carry: seven yards gained before contact
- Other 10 rush attempts: negative-one yard before contact
Hang in there. Bell-cow roles don’t grow on trees in 2024, and, at the very least, we know Swift has that.
The Texans were the best defense last season in terms of limiting yards per carry, so I’m not sure this is a spot for Swift to live up to the potential I think he will eventually have access to.
Be patient. Or buy low after this week. Better days are ahead of Swift – likely over the next few weeks (IND-LAR-CAR in Weeks 3-5).
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NO)
Dowdle had the longest carry by a Dallas running back last week, reinforcing the idea that he is the option in this backfield with the most spike-play potential. That said, outside of that attempt, Dowdle picked up just 2.3 yards per carry and gave the Cowboys no reason to take Elliott off the field.
It’s going to be a test of patience. There might come a time when you are forced with the decision of cutting Dowdle for a flash-in-the-pan option – I’d resist the urge. You can’t play him right now (hovering around RB40 in my ranks), and that might not change in the short term. He is, however, a part of a high-floor offense that lacks reliable options outside of CeeDee Lamb.
Dowdle isn’t an impact asset at the moment. He offers the type of role upside I like to stash. Both things can be true and, in this case, are.