RB Rankings, Projections, and Start/Sit Advice Week 1: Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert, David Montgomery, and Others

There are lots of tough decisions for fantasy football managers to make at the running back position this week, with so many unknowns swirling around the start of the new season.

Therefore, to help you make your decisions, we have broken down all of the fantasy-relevant RB options to give you our start/sit advice while also providing you with our fantasy rankings and projections for Week 1.

After you’re done reading, check out my Week 1 fantasy start/sit for every top skill player in every game on this week’s slate.

The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.

Aaron Jones’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB19
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.4
• Rushing Yards: 58.7
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.8
• Receiving Yards: 13.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Could this game get chaotic? It features the two most blitz-heavy teams from 2023, and we aren’t talking about passing games that are likely to punish aggressive defensive play-calling. That should result in plenty of opportunities for Jones.

“Should,” is the keyword.

One cannot help but notice that Jones hasn’t been trusted with much in the way of work to open the past three seasons. Since the start of 2021, he has five games with under 12 touches despite playing over 46% of the snaps:

• 2021 Week 1
• 2021 Week 12
• 2022 Week 1
• 2023 Week 1
• 2023 Week 8

Yes, those games came as a member of the Packers, but maybe Jones’ body requires time to get into full game shape? I wish I could explain this usage. I can’t. But I can point it out and I can also mention that Ty Chandler has been on this roster during Kevin O’Connell’s entire tenure.

If you’re starting a Vikings back, it’s Jones, but I don’t feel great about it. At the very least, the game script shouldn’t be an issue – a sentence I might not get to write for this team again until late October.

Alvin Kamara’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB16
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
• Rushing Yards: 46.1
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 3.3
• Receiving Yards: 25.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I’m largely out on Kamara this season. He’s pretty clearly past the peak of his powers, and while the pass-catching is still an asset, his ability to do anything else has me worried from a consistency perspective.

Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD):

• 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
• 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
• 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
• 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
• 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
• 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
• 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)

That said, I’m fine with deploying him in this spot, and maybe using a big game as an excuse to move on from him. The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just under 5% of running back carries a season ago, easily the highest rate in the league. It’s a number so high that it could prevent Kamara’s seemingly inevitable regression.

Carolina also blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season, and we all know that Carr doesn’t need an excuse to use his safety valve.

Kamara was unable to exploit this matchup last season, but I’m not worried about the predictive powers of that. I have him ranked as a starter in all spots this week.

Austin Ekeler’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB39
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.7
• Rushing Yards: 20.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 1.9
• Receiving Yards: 15.3
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I was vocal in my support of Robinson this offseason and that, naturally, comes layered with a bet against Ekeler. The one-time fantasy god came in 21.1% below fantasy expectations last season, a bad mark for anyone, let alone someone whose baseline was 17.7% over expectation.

The Buccaneers excelled in a few areas on the defensive side of the ball last season, but they were top six in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion to running backs. Ekeler, in my opinion, has a thin path to fantasy upside; if the production in the passing game is at all limited, he’s poised to hurt you more often than help.

Keep him rostered, but try not to get sucked in by the value that this name has held in the past.

Bijan Robinson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB2
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 20.1
• Rushing Yards: 80.8
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Receptions: 4.2
• Receiving Yards: 36.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

The only decision to be made with Robinson is if I rank him as the top overall running back on the slate this week – and I did! The Steelers gave up at least 22 PPR points to a running back on five different occasions last season, and of the seven running backs that saw elite usage against them (20+ touches), the majority exceeded fantasy expectations by over 12%.

I’ll be watching this game to confirm that Robinson’s usage matches with the preseason suggestions. If it is, he’s a threat to lead skill position players in scoring this season.

Buckle up!

Breece Hall’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB3
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 19.2
• Rushing Yards: 70.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 4.1
• Receiving Yards: 37.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

An RB only cleared 20 PPR points once against the 49ers last season, and the position only reached 14 fantasy points five times.

This defense is elite, but we live in the year 2024, and great offense trumps great defense. Hall was eased into the lead role through four weeks last season. After that, he gave us five straight games with 12+ carries and 3+ catches (the longest streak by a running back in one of his first two seasons since Saquon Barkley in 2018).

Maybe we don’t get a ceiling game in this spot, but top-10 numbers should be expected, with room for more if Rodgers is in vintage form.

Brian Robinson Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB29
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.3
• Rushing Yards: 45.3
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 1.2
• Receiving Yards: 14.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I like Robinson this season more than most, but the optimism doesn’t carry over to the season opener. If Austin Ekeler is ever going to consistently cut into his touch count, it’ll come early in the season, thus making an 18+ touch afternoon somewhat of a longshot.

I think we see the volume turn in his favor before long, but without it, the ceiling isn’t that high. Only once last season did an RB reach 20 PPR points against the Bucs without having 24+ touches (Jonathan Taylor in Week 12; I like Robinson as much as anyone, and I think we can agree he’s no J.T.) With the third-best red-zone defense on the other end, this isn’t as favorable of a matchup as you might assume.

I’m Flexing Robinson in a few spots (ahead of Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard in my ranks) this week with the expectation of 10-12 PPR points. The logic behind the love for him this season was a cheap bet on an offense that could overachieve and his continued development as a pass catcher. I remain bullish on the player for the marathon that is the fantasy season, even if the first sprint isn’t an impressive one.

Chase Brown’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB36
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.5
• Rushing Yards: 28.5
• Rushing TDs: 0.1
• Receptions: 2.2
• Receiving Yards: 24.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will this offense lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?

We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.

Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.

This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.

Christian McCaffrey’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB1
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 23.1
• Rushing Yards: 79.2
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 5.2
• Receiving Yards: 45.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

It’s always fun to have your best player involved in the final game of the week. Only the Ravens allowed a touchdown on a lower percentage of drives last season than the Jets, but you’re overthinking this at a high level if you have CMC labeled as anything but your best running back this week (he’s fallen all the way to RB2 in my weekly ranks as a result of this matchup).

McCaffrey carried the rock 146 times in enemy territory a season ago – not only did that lead the league, but it was also more such carries than 10 teams had from their entire backfields. This blend of talent, role, and offensive environment is as rare as it gets – enjoy the privilege of having this man on your roster, even in the toughest of spots.

Chuba Hubbard’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB35
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
• Rushing Yards: 40.3
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.6
• Receiving Yards: 11.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Jonathon Brooks was officially placed on PUP after the preseason ended, and that gives Hubbard some utility early on — emphasis on “some.”

Hubbard was featured in this underwhelming offense a season ago, and despite playing in every game, he turned that strong volume into just three finishes better than RB18.

If that’s his ceiling, is the chasing of volume even worth it against the best defense in terms of success rate against the run? I have Brian Robinson Jr. and Tony Pollard, two running backs not promised high-end volume, ranked higher for Week 1 thanks to an expected edge in efficiency and/or overall game environment.

Hubbard checks in as a fringe Flex option for me. He offers a level of safety that a Jameson Williams or Christian Watson does not, but he’s going to have to do better than the 0.66 points per touch he gave us last season, which was third-worst among qualified backs.

D’Andre Swift’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB25
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.7
• Rushing Yards: 38.5
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 2.7
• Receiving Yards: 19.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The Bears’ new RB1 is my favorite running back in this game, but I’m struggling with assigning him anything more than a low-end RB2, high-end Flex grade. The Titans allowed the eighth fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs last season, and that was where Swift thrived as a Philadelphia Eagle.

Leaders in carries with 5+ yards gained before contact, 2023:

• Lamar Jackson: 47
• Christian McCaffrey: 42
• Swift: 39

Tennessee also owned the best red-zone defense in all the land a season ago, making a bailout touchdown a tough bet. I think Swift is more dynamic than the Zamir White/Devin Singletary tier that I have ahead of him, but the touchdown equity of options like Raheem Mostert/David Montgomery keeps them ahead.

David Montgomery’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB20
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.4
• Rushing Yards: 52.0
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 1.8
• Receiving Yards: 14.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

After Week 5 last season, he played at least 52% of the snaps just once (Week 13 at NO, and it was a game-script situation — DET led by 21 points after just seven minutes).

I worry about Montgomery’s long-term role in this offense if Gibbs shows the ability to succeed at a high level with an increase in work, but we aren’t yet to the moment where you’d bench Monty in a game that is projected to be a shootout.

De’Von Achane’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB9
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.7
• Rushing Yards: 56.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.6
• Receptions: 1.9
• Receiving Yards: 14.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

Last season, we saw a running back reach 17.9 PPR fantasy points on eight occasions against the Jaguars, and that includes seeing both ends of a tandem do it to close the season (Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry). Could we see something similar on Sunday?

It’s certainly possible. At the very least, you can feel good about Achane. In 11 of 15 games to close last season, a running back cleared 13 PPR points in this matchup, and given their respective ADPs, it’s clear that Achane is the favorite to be the lead producer in this backfield.

As a rookie, Achane either saw 3+ targets or ripped off a 25+ yard run in nine of 11 games. I can preach “regression” as much as I want to, but even as a skeptic, I’m playing him without much thought.

Devin Singletary’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB28
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.9
• Rushing Yards: 45.8
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 1.9
• Receiving Yards: 12.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I’m skeptical that Singletary will hold on to the bell-cow role in this offense through October, and I’m not sure his season gets off to a great start.

During his entire career up to this point, Singletary has been involved in offenses that have proven to be dangerous. He spent four seasons with the Bills and Josh Allen before taking his talents to Houston last year in an offense that was as potent as anyone once the Texans figured out what C.J. Stroud was capable of.

It’s safe to say that this situation in New York is not the same as either of those. Running lanes are going to be more difficult to come by, and for a player who hasn’t had a 35-yard carry in over nearly 1,000 days, counting on the home run play isn’t exactly wise.

The Vikings’ defense had their share of issues in 2023, but they allowed a league-low six running back carries of 15+ yards. I think you can get away with Flexing Singletary in the rare Giants game that should come down to the wire, and thus stabilize his touch count. But asking for much more than that is dangerous with Tyrone Tracy Jr. set to nip at his heels for touches.

Ezekiel Elliott’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB37
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.8
• Rushing Yards: 32.5
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 1.4
• Receiving Yards: 8.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Zeke’s stat line last season was an unmitigated disaster, and if you watched the games, it looked even worse. Do you know those science lab situations where a mouse is asked to find the cheese at the end of a maze?

That’s what 2023 was for Elliott — he was the mouse, but the cheese had no scent … and the walls were really high … and there was a moat filled with lava in the middle that required him to tightrope across … while juggling marbles.

Zeke might be washed. He probably is. But the situation glow up is tough to overstate: #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/HEUCAUChVx

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024

He was put in a position to fail, and he did, something that tells us almost nothing. I suspect the age curve is near, but I can’t in good faith use last season as proof of that. Dallas brought him back in hopes of recapturing his past form, something that is unlikely to happen but should land him a favorable role out of the gates.

There is some versatility in this profile and touchdown upside by default. The Browns allowed a league-low 0.69 yards per carry before contact to running backs last season (that’s under nine inches), furthering my opinion that this isn’t going to be a pretty stat line. That said, a touchdown and a handful of targets is an RB2 profile, and his path to such a week is certainly there.

It’s easy to forget now, but Cleveland was the worst red-zone defense in the league last season, allowing six points on 71.4% of drives that crossed their 20-yard line. Of course, making it that far isn’t a given, but no defense was better at it last season than Dallas; Tony Pollard did lead the league in carries inside the opposing 30-yard line last season.

Elliott ranks ahead of Rico Dowdle in this backfield, ahead of other touchdown-reliant RBs (Gus Edwards and Ray Davis), and ahead of short-end-of-a-committee types (Zach Charbonnet, Ty Chandler, and Austin Ekeler, to name a few). That’s still not enough to earn him a spot in my top 30, but in a deeper league, I’d understand Flexing him to open the season and hoping that this offense as a whole props him up.

Gus Edwards’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB32
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
• Rushing Yards: 44.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 0.3
• Receiving Yards: 5.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The Gus Bus stands to come to a screeching halt now that he is no longer isolated by the Ravens’ offensive scheme, and that reality could be obvious to open the season.

No running back last season scored 20 PPR points against the Raiders without seeing at least five targets, and only one (the great Jonathan Taylor) reached 14 points with at least looks in the passing game.

If pressed, I’d bet the under on 3.5 targets for Edwards.

No, not for this game — for the month of September.

There will be a time and place to try to steal points from a back like this that will rely on cashing in a carry inside the 5-yard line, but taking a risk like that in Week 1 for an offense that underwent an overhaul this offseason is trying too hard.

The Chargers do not have an alpha running back, and that is why Edwards deserves to be rostered. It’s easy to see a world in which he earns plus-volume and handles all of the duties in close.

But with a lack of versatility, Edwards’ PPR upside is significantly capped in this situation. And with every team in action, I’d be shocked if you didn’t have two running backs and 4-5 receivers that I’d rather plug in.

J.K. Dobbins’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB40
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.9
• Rushing Yards: 27.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Receptions: 0.9
• Receiving Yards: 6.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

When this game kicks off, we will be 1,331 days removed from the last time Dobbins played at least 52% of the snaps in an NFL game. The theory behind drafting him late this summer was sound in that it’s cheap exposure to a run-centric offense that lacks backfield depth chart clarity, but you’re very much playing the long game.

As long as Dobbins exits this game healthy, he should very much remain rostered, albeit with the understanding that he’s not a lineup option until we consistently see him carve out a 10+ touch role.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB5
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 16.6
• Rushing Yards: 64.2
• Rushing TDs: 0.7
• Receptions: 3.5
• Receiving Yards: 21.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

This backfield gets labeled as a thunder-and-lightning situation, but is that fair? They shared the field for nine games down the stretch of the 2023 regular season, and the red-zone usage numbers from those contests will surprise you:

• Gibbs: 31 touches, 65.4% snap share
• Montgomery: 25 touches, 34.6% snap share

Gibbs’ versatility is no secret, and the idea that he could be this team’s top option close to the end zone (in this era of goal-line vulture QBs, that’s not a concern in Detroit) is nothing short of enticing.

Did I mention versatility? Gibbs joined Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, and LaDainian Tomlinson as the only rookies with 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions since 2000.

Gibbs is special and matchup-proof. The fact that the Rams allowed the second-fewest RB runs of 15+ yards last season (seven) is noteworthy for showdown contests, but there’s no reason to look elsewhere when it comes to your season-long league.

James Conner’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB17
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.9
• Rushing Yards: 47.0
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 2.0
• Receiving Yards: 15.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Conner wasn’t a sexy pick during the draft process this summer because he is a veteran, and the passing game in Arizona got plenty of steam. You, the savvy manager, took advantage of the market to get a nice price. Well done!

Your sharp approach will be rewarded right out of the gate against a Bills defense that allowed the third-most yards per carry to running backs after contact in 2023.

The age curve could catch up to Conner as this season wears on, but he is as healthy as he’ll be at any point this season, and that’s an appealing profile for the RB who led the league in carries of 20+ yards last season (11).

For me, Conner is flirting with RB1 status this week and should be locked in regardless of your league roster requirements.

James Cook’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB15
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.2
• Rushing Yards: 61.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 2.0
• Receiving Yards: 22.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

By success rate, the Cardinals were the worst running back defense in the league last season, something their 4.6 yards per carry against (second-worst mark) supports.

I’m an optimist at heart, and maybe that is why I have a different view on Cook than the rest of the industry (I have a standing bet with Derek Tate that Cook will outscore Josh Jacobs).

Instead of focusing on some of the scoring and short-yardage concerns, how about we look at his usage and production under Brady?

Think about it this way: Would you rather have proven talent and hope to run hot with scoring, or have the scoring role and hope to run hot on talent?

It’s not close for me – running hot on talent doesn’t happen much, but a player can fall into positive touchdown variance.

In 2023, Cook had five games with 20+ touches, and four of them came after Brady took over the controls of this offense. Dig deeper, and you’ll notice that Cook’s two most efficient games in terms of PPR points over expectation came in the Brady era, too.

I have Buffalo’s RB1 ranked in the same tier as Conner, and thus a lineup staple (maybe even a DFS piece if the field is going elsewhere).

Javonte Williams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB23
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.7
• Rushing Yards: 52.2
• Rushing TDs: 0.1
• Receptions: 3.2
• Receiving Yards: 17.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

It appears that Williams is well removed from the “he is on the roster bubble” nonsense from earlier this month and is in line to lead this backfield in a significant way. I’ve been higher than the industry on Williams all offseason, using the logic that he deserves some leniency for his underwhelming 2023 season after the ACL tear. I think we could see a vintage performance to open this year.

Last year, the Seahawks allowed the fourth-most running back carries of 15+ yards (22), and we know Williams can hit the home run. Just as encouraging as that is Nix’s profile. This preseason, he showcased nice athleticism, and while it was called back, he did find Williams for a touchdown this preseason against the Packers.

Even last year, which most considered a lost season, there were only three running backs in the NFL with more 10+ carry, 2+ catch games than Williams. I’m happy to be early to the party for a versatile 24-year-old in an offense that might have a higher ceiling than most assume.

Jaylen Warren’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB31
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.9
• Rushing Yards: 43.7
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.2
• Receiving Yards: 13.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The hamstring injury during the second week of the preseason wasn’t as serious as we had feared, and Warren seems to be in a good health spot entering this game.

On the bright side, we saw his snap share rise from 31.7% in 2022 to 48.5% last season, and it’s reasonable to think that Warren eventually leads this backfield in opportunities.

Key word: Eventually.

The injury set that timeline back a bit, and considering he has never played the majority of snaps in a September game (only one career September game with even 8.5 PPR points), Warren is not of interest to me this week. For reference, 10 PPR points were needed to be on the Flex radar last season.

I wouldn’t punt on Warren if this week is discouraging. At the very least, if he can separate himself in this passing game, he could see his highest usage games come late in the season when the Steelers close the fantasy season with games against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs – spots where the game script is likely to favor his skill set.

Jerome Ford’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB30
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
• Rushing Yards: 39.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 2.0
• Receiving Yards: 15.3
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

This spot isn’t much different than the one Chuba Hubbard finds himself in with the Panthers – the bellcow on an iffy offense with the starter out for at least the first month. I prefer him by two spots to Carolina’s backup option, and that lands him inside my top 30 running backs for Week 1. Barely.

Ford is strictly a volume play. There were 35 qualified running backs last season, and Ford finished 35th in the percentage of carries that gained yardage (72.5%). It’s natural to remember the big run in a prime-time spot after Chubb’s injury, but the fact of the matter is that Ford was very ordinary in his extended work last season; expecting more than that to open 2024 is a bit misguided.

The Cowboys were the best first-down run defense a season ago and allowed only three running backs to reach 14 PPR points in a game. The ceiling is low, but much like Hubbard, the known volume earns him Flex consideration with many backfields not offering that.

Ford is not a target of mine in DFS and isn’t someone I’d be thrilled with rostering in a Guillotine league, but in a redraft setting, if you spent early-round draft capital on the onesie positions, I could see a situation where you’re backed into a corner. He’s viable in a spot like that, though I’d still lean on slotting a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr. or Jaxon Smith-Njigba into your Flex if you have the option.

Joe Mixon’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB18
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.9
• Rushing Yards: 45.5
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Receptions: 2.3
• Receiving Yards: 17.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

We know who Mixon is as a player, and while the lack of upside is a pain, the reasonable stability to open the season slots him into fantasy lineups across the board.

Let the record show that I was lower on him than most coming into the season, and I stand by that (Houston saw their close-game run rate fall from 47.7% through eight weeks to 39.3% for the remainder of the fantasy season as Stroud’s star ascended), but I have him as RB16 this week against a Colts defense that allowed a touchdown once every 27.3 running back carries (fourth-highest).

Efficiency has never been Mixon’s calling card, and I worry about his work in the passing game when it comes to sustaining upside. It’s getting a little cute to get this far ahead of the trade market, but the Texans should score over 100 points on the field in September (Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars), potentially being a tide that lifts all boats in the short term.

Be careful. A late bye (Week 14), a tough finale (Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16-17), and the AFC East gauntlet on the schedule all create a worrisome floor. There’s a world in which Mixon is an RB1 heading into October and creates a selling window to better your chances of winning a title; you heard it here first.

Jonathan Taylor’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB4
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 16.9
• Rushing Yards: 84.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.7
• Receptions: 2.2
• Receiving Yards: 16.2
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The Texans were stout against the run last season, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs — numbers that are even more astounding when you remember that they were lit up by the Colts.

• Week 2, Zack Moss: 18 carries for 88 yards and one touchdown
• Week 18, Taylor: 30 carries for 188 yards and one touchdown

We enter this season with a healthy version of Taylor and if the past has taught us anything, that gives him a chance to pace the position in scoring. In his last two Week 1 games, he has averaged 31 opportunities (rushes + targets) and six red-zone touches.

You spent an early pick on Taylor, and even against a run defense trending in the right direction, you should feel good about getting RB1 returns.

Kenneth Walker III’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB13
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.7
• Rushing Yards: 61.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 1.8
• Receiving Yards: 13.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I made Walker a flag-plant player this offseason and have him ranked as an RB1 to open the season. The Broncos’ defense was better than their annual numbers looked last season — giving up 70 points in a single game will do that — but they were victimized by the big play (second most 15+ yard carries allowed to running backs last season), and that is essentially the entire argument behind elevating Walker.

Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Walker. There is your list of RBs averaging three red-zone touches and picking up 10+ yards on at least 11.9% of their carries over the past two seasons. I’ll grant you that the floor is concerning and maybe the volume underwhelming if Zach Charbonnet can build on an impressive rookie season, but the ceiling is too high to ignore when in a matchup like this.

We could experience the full Walker experience over the first six weeks of this season. It’s not hard to sell yourself on him posting big numbers against the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants, but peppered in the middle of those plus-spots are games against the Patriots and 49ers. I don’t think it’ll be a flawless season, but if you spent a fourth-round pick on K-9, I think you’re going to profit in a significant way when all is said and done.

Kyren Williams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB6
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.5
• Rushing Yards: 69.4
• Rushing TDs: 0.6
• Receptions: 2.3
• Receiving Yards: 15.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

PANIC. PUNT RETURNER. AHHH.

Calm down, people. There were only four players in the NFL last season to average even two punt returns per game, so let’s not act like this new role is going to tax Williams’ body in a way that his 21.7 touches per game last season didn’t.

The Lions owned the fourth-worst red-zone defense last season, and that is where you’re banking on Williams to put points on the board. In a game that could feature plenty of points, Williams is Los Angeles’ way to both get on the board and slow tempo.

You’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.

Najee Harris’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB22
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
• Rushing Yards: 51.0
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 2.2
• Receiving Yards: 13.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Jaylen Warren suffered a hamstring during the preseason, and while his status is TBD (it seems to be trending in the right direction, but has yet to be confirmed), I’m not playing Harris in Week 1 if I can avoid it.

The story behind Harris has been pretty simple through three seasons – limited efficiency and a reliance on volume and touchdowns. The volume could remain, especially should Warren be a surprise inactive, but this profiles as an empty-calorie situation.

Last season, the Falcons (first in defensive rush EPA on first down) owned the fourth-best red-zone defense and coughed up just five scores on 390 running back carries; not only the lowest rate in the NFL but the lowest by an NFC team over the past decade.

A Harris manager is swimming upstream if these rates prove stable. He averaged just 6.7 PPR points per game a season ago when held out of the end zone.

Toss in the fact that this Atlanta offense should stay on the field more than it did in 2023 (25th in time of possession) now that Cousins is under center, and we could be looking at a low drive count for the Steelers.

If you have the luxury, I’d rather count on players like David Montgomery and Raheem Mostert – running backs on potent offenses with a well-defined red-zone role.

Rachaad White’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB11
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.7
• Rushing Yards: 52.0
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 4.0
• Receiving Yards: 29.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I’ve been lower on White than the industry for like 10 months now. Yes, that means I was burned in a significant way for the second half of last season, but I remain sold on the process – an inefficient back playing for an offense I don’t trust carries too much risk to rely on consistently.

I’m back for more fading of White this season … just not this week. The Commanders saw opponents throw 7.2 passes per game to running backs (fourth most) and were a bottom-10 rush defense in yards and yards per carry. In essence, every type of back found a way to victimize this defense, and 2024 should feature more of the same.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were talking about White as a sell-high by the middle of October, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, you can play your third-round pick with confidence as a top-15 option in PPR formats with a reasonably stable floor.

Raheem Mostert’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB21
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.1
• Rushing Yards: 46.1
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Receptions: 1.7
• Receiving Yards: 11.7
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

Despite Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense; while carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (he scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).

As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out – anyone with a piece of this backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.

Ray Davis’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB47
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.0
• Rushing Yards: 28.3
• Rushing TDs: 0.1
• Receptions: 1.1
• Receiving Yards: 11.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

We get a “show me” week out of the gates with Davis and how he is used.

Buffalo is heavily favored to win this game, and Arizona was a bottom-10 red-zone defense in 2023, making this, in theory, the exact spot we want to feel good about plugging Davis in as a Flex down the road.

That’s the key – “down the road.”

As injuries and byes come into the picture, this pseudo-goal line vulture role stands to hold value, but I’d very much caution against assuming as much.

I think there’s more than just contingent value potential in Davis’ profile, but I need to see proof of concept (probably multiple times), before he gets lineup consideration, even in deeper and/or DFS formats.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB24
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.0
• Rushing Yards: 48.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.3
• Receptions: 2.5
• Receiving Yards: 16.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Some players are gifted enough to rise above an offensive environment that offers support, but most fall victim to such situations and Stevenson seems to be falling into that bucket.

Last season, just 6.4% of his carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs). I don’t think he is most to blame for that. It’s tough when 60.9% of your carries come with 7+ defenders in the box, but the situation projects no different this year than last, and that has him sitting outside of my top-20 at the position, a spot in the ranks I expect him to occupy all season long.

If you drafted him as something of a Zero RB build, he’s fine. He’ll get his fair share of touches, and the Bengals were the second worst first down rush defense of the past decade last season by EPA. It’s not likely to be an exciting day at the office, though his role does carry enough of a floor if you hammered the other positions early.

Rico Dowdle’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB38
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
• Rushing Yards: 29.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.4
• Receiving Yards: 11.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

I don’t have a problem with holding Dowdle; he could be an asset in rather short order if Elliott is cooked, but the wait-and-see approach is best to use here. His next NFL game with 14+ touches will be his first, meaning that even if he transitions to the leader of this backfield, it may be a slow burn for him to prove worthy of our trust.

Dallas is going to create scoring opportunities, and that will put their top ball carrier in the Flex discussion at the very least. That might be doable with time, we just can’t assume it quite yet.

Tony Pollard’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB33
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.9
• Rushing Yards: 38.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.9
• Receiving Yards: 14.5
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Was limited health to blame for Pollard falling flat in 2023? It’s either a Space Jam situation where the MonStars drained him of his talent, or he is destined for a complementary role.

I’m not sure which of those three options is most likely, but we do know that this franchise thought highly enough of Tyjae Spears to take Derrick Henry off the field at times last season in favor of him. This leaves us with plenty of questions when trying to label Pollard’s true ceiling outcome.

The Bears were terrible in the red zone last season (31st), but so was Pollard, making it very possible that Spears gets the first crack inside the 20. Chicago did round into form down the stretch of 2023 and finished with the fifth-lowest mark in opposing running back yards per carry after first contact.

The concern here is obvious: volume. Henry was handed the ball on an absurd 52.5% of his snaps last season, and that is how he paid off fantasy managers. The league average for a running back hovers around 34% and if we give Pollard that rate along with Henry’s snap share, the mean projection comes out to 10.7 carries.

Is that enough? Is that enough behind an offensive line that was one of just six that failed to clear, on average, even three FEET of room for their running backs before contact? I don’t feel great about the Tennessee RB role as a whole being all that valuable this week and my confidence only dips further if we are looking at 10-14 touches apiece.

Travis Etienne Jr.’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB8
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.5
• Rushing Yards: 63.4
• Rushing TDs: 0.5
• Receptions: 2.8
• Receiving Yards: 23.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

There isn’t a running back on your roster that you’re benching, so don’t get cute just because the Dolphins allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry after contact last season. Through two years, we’ve seen Etienne do a bit of everything, and the idea behind a full-blown breakout would be him putting it all together for a magical three-month run.

Do I think that’s possible? Sure do. Believe it or not, as part of an inconsistent offense last season, he was the solo leader in rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards (the other two fantasy-viable RBs in this game and Breece Hall all tied for second). We know he can catch the ball and explode out of the backfield — we also think we know that Jacksonville will want to keep Miami off the field.

Etienne is my RB7 this week, RB1 in this game.

Trey Benson’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB46
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.0
• Rushing Yards: 26.3
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 0.8
• Receiving Yards: 8.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Conner played north of 58% of the offensive snaps in 10 of his 13 games last season, reaching two-thirds on six occasions. I’m not against the idea of holding Benson as a handcuff behind a fragile back in a potentially explosive offense, but standalone value is a long shot. I certainly wouldn’t be banking on it in Week 1 with a healthy Conner in front of him.

Ty Chandler’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB42
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.2
• Rushing Yards: 27.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.1
• Receptions: 2.0
• Receiving Yards: 15.3
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I expect Chandler to assume a greater role as the season progresses. If Jones shows any signs of the age decline that the Packers feared, maybe he will approach standalone value sooner rather than later.

The Giants allowed the fourth-most yards per RB carry before contact last year. If Chandler is going to make a statement with his carries and earn more work, this could be a spot for him to do so.

Tyjae Spears’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB34
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.4
• Rushing Yards: 39.6
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.6
• Receiving Yards: 14.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

As a rookie, Spears showed well for himself in the passing game, hauling in 52 of 70 targets and threatening defenses in space. Pollard can do some of that too, but considering that this franchise saw Spears do it, I think it’s reasonable to make him the favorite in the passing game, and that role could see some value against a Bears defense that had the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT a season ago.

I don’t have either Titans RB inside my top-30 at the position this week, but I do have Spears a few pots higher based almost entirely on the idea that this team put him on the field for the majority of their offensive snaps 12 times last season with Henry on the roster.

I’d wager that this backfield will have an alpha by the middle of October — I’m just not jumping the gun and assuming I can project who that’ll be in Week 1 against an improving defense.

Tyler Allgeier’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB43
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.3
• Rushing Yards: 37.2
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 0.7
• Receiving Yards: 7.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I have some shares of Allgeier with the thought that he could potentially carve out a nice niche by the time bye weeks come about, but banking on standalone value out of the gate is far too optimistic for me.

Just once during the second half of last season did Allgeier reach a 36% snap share. And with talks of Robinson being used in a Christian McCaffrey-like manner, it’s tough to project much change on that front.

The contingent value keeps Allgeier on your roster, but there’s no reason to get cute to open the season against 2023’s ninth-best defense in terms of rushing success rate.

Zach Charbonnet’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB44
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.6
• Rushing Yards: 28.1
• Rushing TDs: 0.1
• Receptions: 1.4
• Receiving Yards: 13.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I thought Charbonnet was fine as a rookie (4.3 yards per carry and an 82.5% catch rate) and should be again this season. Walker is the type of all-or-nothing back who needs a level of stability behind him to keep the offense on schedule, and I think the UCLA product can provide that.

Asking him to hold standalone value in a non-desperate situation, however, is a step I’m not willing to take. He didn’t clear 10 touches in a single healthy Walker game. Without elite burst, limitations like that in his role are too much to overlook.

I like Walker a lot this season and think the Seahawks will take a Saquon Barkley approach with him — keep giving him touches until the game-breaking play occurs. If that’s the case, Charbonnet is nothing more than a handcuff. There’s a decent chance I’m wrong with that Walker projection, and that is what makes his backup roster worthy, but he shouldn’t be on your lineup radar just yet.

Zack Moss’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB27
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.0
• Rushing Yards: 54.8
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.5
• Receiving Yards: 12.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will this offense lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?

We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.

Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.

This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.

Zamir White’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

• Week 1 Fantasy Ranking: RB26
• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.9
• Rushing Yards: 54.8
• Rushing TDs: 0.2
• Receptions: 1.5
• Receiving Yards: 12.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

I don’t know if you’re ever going to love clicking White’s name into your starting lineup, but I’m also not sure if you’re ever going to fully regret it at the end of the week.

Over the final four weeks of last season, White ranked ninth among running backs in scoring (third in expected points) as the Raiders laid out a blueprint of what they, theoretically, want 2024 to look like.

The volume appears locked in – it’s the upside that’s the question.

Scoring is always going to be difficult, and in a game that might look more like 1994 than 2024, the possession count doesn’t exactly project favorably. White also doesn’t profile as much of a threat in the passing game, especially with two receivers and two tight ends likely to be prioritized ahead of him through the air.

I’m going to have White ranked as a viable Flex play most weeks as a mean ranking – if he scores, I’d bet he finishes inside the top 20. If he doesn’t, White could easily fall out of the top 30.

White’s projectable volume alone has him above committee backs that don’t play for high-flying offenses (I’ll swallow the touch disadvantage with Raheem Mostert or David Montgomery and chase their scoring equity over White).

He might lose that benefit of the doubt as these backfields (namely Washington, Dallas, and Tennessee) sort themselves out, but for now, he’s a low-upside Flex option who is more appealing in formats that de-emphasize pass-catching.