Through two weeks of the 2024 NFL season, Atlanta Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud III has fantasy football managers scratching their heads as they attempt to work out whether the veteran wide receiver is worth adding from the waiver wire ahead of Week 3.
After entering the season with just 90 career receptions in six NFL seasons, McCloud is on pace for 102 targets and 60 receptions through the first two weeks. Let’s examine whether the career kick returner is set to have value throughout 2024 or if he’s just been opportunistic in making a strong start this season.
Should Fantasy Managers Add Ray-Ray McCloud III From the Waiver Wire in Week 3?
Through two weeks, McCloud has a total of 94 receiving yards on seven receptions from 12 targets. In Week 1, he posted 9.2 fantasy points in PPR scoring and backed that up with 7.5 points in Week 2 (he also had three rushing yards).
While an average of 8.3 fantasy points per game is only good enough to sit as the WR50 through two weeks, is there more potential to be had here?
McCloud is 31st at the WR position in targets through two weeks. He leads all Falcons receivers, with Drake London and Darnell Mooney sitting at 10 apiece. When it comes to offensive snaps, McCloud trails both of those receivers by a considerable margin (82 vs. 105 for Mooney and 106 for London). However, his 50 routes run only trail London by eight and Mooney by nine.
In Week 2, McCloud played all offensive snaps (with London playing 56), ran 31 routes, and saw five targets. The Falcons definitely value him in this offense, but they have two other mouths to feed, and they fed them seven targets apiece in Week 2.
London and Mooney both found the end zone, but McCloud could have as well if Kirk Cousins had seen him get wide open during Monday Night Football.
Kirk Cousins had Ray-Ray McCloud III wide open and didn't see him. #NFL pic.twitter.com/0XLQK3kXcJ
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhifer) September 17, 2024
McCloud is the WR3 in this offense, but he’s not far behind London and Mooney in the pecking order. Those two have the edge when it comes to playing on running plays this season, but that is largely irrelevant in terms of fantasy value. That is especially the case, given that McCloud has played on all eight snaps where the Falcons have run play-action this season.
The biggest concern here is that McCloud has been fairly inefficient in terms of his fantasy output. His expected fantasy points (xFP) through two games is 21.1, and he has just 16.7 or 79.3% of that.
If McCloud were just doing exactly as expected based on opportunities and situations, he would be the WR38 in terms of PPR points per game and a borderline Flex starter in 12-team leagues.
Now, there are two ways of looking at this for McCloud: Can he improve that efficiency, or will that inefficiency always hamper his value?
In the past two seasons, McCloud has actually outperformed his xFP, scoring a total of 86.6 fantasy points when his xFP was just 71.0. However, in his best year from a usage perspective (2021), when he got 66 targets with the Steelers, his xFP percentage (xFP%) was a woeful 58.0. Granted, in that season, he had the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball, and Cousins should be an upgrade on that front.
The big question with McCloud is whether he is the WR we’ve seen in 2022 and 2023, outperforming expectations with a 40-target sample size, or is he the receiver we saw post a 58 xFP% when getting 66 snaps in 2021?
Right now, McCloud is splitting the difference, and that makes this hard to judge.
McCloud is at least intriguing as a waiver wire option based on what we’ve seen through two weeks. We saw him lead the team in targets in Week 1 but finish behind both London and Mooney in Week 2. He’s clearly the WR3, and that’s going to make his value inconsistent.
For the most part, you’re looking at McCloud as a potential Flex option in 16-team leagues or bigger.