If you’re looking for Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday Night Football DFS picks in Week 17, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Lamar Jackson will sit for the fourth straight game. The generally low-upside Tyler Huntley will be under center again.
It’s been another odd season for the nearly great Ravens. Last year they barely missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record after starting 8-3. Jackson missed their final four games. But this year, a healthy backfield, improved pass defense, and relatively soft second-half schedule have kept them in the AFC North title chase at 10-5.
But which Ravens can we trust in DFS? Huntley, Mark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins will be expensive. Yet all three have shockingly low floors. Andrews hasn’t earned double-digit points since Week 12. The similarly TD-dependent Dobbins has only one reception in his last five outings.
The Steelers are pretty tough on defense. One of their biggest vulnerabilities is against wideouts: they’re yielding the fifth-most WR touchdowns (17). And yet, Baltimore’s biggest DFS weakness comes through its WRs. Demarcus Robinson is their de facto No. 1, yet he’s exceeded 12.4 points only once all year.
We’ll need to take at least one big, high-priced risk with Baltimore, and we might also consider less conventional options, assuming a somewhat defensive battle.
This is a winnable game for Pittsburgh. But they’re facing a defense that’s stepped up dramatically since last season. In particular, the Ravens have yielded more than 14 points only once in their last seven games. Notably, they surrendered more than 14 in their previous seven games.
That’s some turnaround, though it could be attributed partly to a more favorable schedule that included the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Broncos, Browns . . . and the Steelers.
In their last faceoff three weeks ago, Mitch Trubisky replaced an injured Kenny Pickett in the first quarter. Every Trubisky drive reached Baltimore territory. Yes, every single one. The problem? Three interceptions that doomed their chances for a victory.
Certainly, the Ravens are far from invincible, and they can give up big plays. But they also have one of the league’s top run defenses (3.8 yards per carry) and past rushes (fifth most sacks).
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: TE Mark Andrews, Ravens ($13,200)
Go big or go home. Despite his struggles, Andrews has the highest ceiling in this contest. He scored five times in Week 1-6. Hasn’t scored since. Does that mean he won’t score again? Of course not.
On a team with few reliable red-zone options, Andrews probably is the top bet to reach the end zone, especially against a defense that’s been pretty stingy against the run.
Flex: RB Najee Harris, Steelers ($10,600)
Another struggling star. Sure, Najee Harris remains one of the NFL’s least efficient No. 1 RBs. But seven of his eight TDs have come from the seven-yard line or closer — including three one-yard plunges.
Much depends on his target share. Last week he netted six looks. That kind of aerial volume could make him Pittsburgh’s No. 1 DFS performer.
Flex: QB Tyler Huntley, Ravens ($9,400)
We could go with Dobbins ($10,000) or Huntley. Choosing Dobbins would mean downgrading elsewhere. And given my all-in approach to Andrews (assuming at least one touchdown), I need to go all-in on his quarterback.
Despite Huntley’s muted stats, he’s a dual-threat option on a team with few reliable playmakers. He’s the quintessential boom-bust option. If he thrives, this lineup should crush it.
Flex: TE Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($7,200)
A terrific safety valve and red-zone option for Pickett. Pat Freiermuth is not flashy. He lacks the uber ceiling of guys like Andrews and even Harris. But he’s the sixth most targeted TE.
And ignore his low touchdown total (two). He’s No. 2 on his team in red-zone targets. Last year he was No. 2, as well. While Pittsburgh’s red-zone passes are down compared to 2021, if the Steelers get in close, Freiermuth (and Harris) will be two of the three highest-probability scorers.
Flex: Ravens D/ST ($5,000)
Even if Pittsburgh reaches the end zone a couple of times, there’s enough pop to the Ravens’ D/ST to merit starting them in this DFS slate. Baltimore is tied for fourth with 1.6 forced turnovers per game. I’ve already mentioned their fearsome pass rush.
Four times they’ve scored 10+ DFS points despite surrendering 13+ points. Given the other options around this price, the Ravens offer terrific potential value.
Flex: K Justin Tucker, Steelers ($4,400)
Four kickers were selected in the 2012 draft. Justin Tucker wasn’t one of them.
The greatest placekicker in NFL history was signed as a free agent shortly after graduating from college. Despite missing two field goal attempts last weekend, he’s still the best ever. He could miss his next 20 attempts, and he’d still be the best ever. And in a potentially low-scoring game, he needs to be in this lineup.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.
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