The Sunday slate isn’t loaded with great games for betting, but the finale could be a fun one. My same game parlay picks skew away from traditional fun-to-watch options, but it should be a competitive one!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
Ravens -185, Chargers +154
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: True or false — Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards has run for more touchdowns in a five-game stretch after turning 28 years old than former Charger great LaDainian Tomlinson ever did at that age?
Fantasy football managers want the scoreboard to light up and the stats to accumulate in a big way. These two offenses are certainly capable of doing that, but this isn’t a great spot for it and let me tell you why.
The crux of this argument revolves around the impact of the Mark Andrews injury. We know this Todd Monken offense wants to get the ball out fast when possible, and Andrews was certainly a key cog in how this unit has been functioning. Here are the primary Ravens receivers and their aDOT in comparison to the All-World tight end this season:
- Zay Flowers: +13.9%
- Odell Beckham Jr.: +39.3%
- Rashod Bateman: +50%
We only have one game this season without Andrews in the mix — and it was way back in Week 1 — but the data is at least interesting to consider. In that game against the Houston Texans, the Ravens managed just 4.9 yards per play, their second-lowest output of the season.
Dial in a bit further, and that performance was even that much more underwhelming when you consider the circumstances.
- Texans: Bottom-10 yards per play defense since Week 1
- Ravens home games: Week 1 down 29.4% from their average since
Moderately worried about this offense yet? Lamar Jackson has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in seven of 11 games this season, and the scoring outlook (as you’d expect) has been bleak in those instances.
Of those seven games, five came against a quarterback whose running profile is not where the foundation of his success is built. In those games, there has been an average of just 36.4 points scored.
It’s not a surprise. If Jackson isn’t offering a ton of scoring equity through the air and the opponent isn’t capable of beating this great defense with his legs, the avenues to big point totals simply aren’t there.
Let’s keep going. The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game on “normal” rest. In their past five games on normal or extended rest, Los Angeles games are averaging just 39.4 points scored.
This defense has been improved against the run and is vulnerable in the air – but didn’t I just spend 200 words telling you why the Baltimore passing game doesn’t scare me in a big way in the immediate aftermath of the Andrews injury?
One for the road – the Ravens own the top first-quarter scoring defense in the league (1.7 PPG) while the Chargers rank eighth (3.4).
- Trivia Answer: True! Edwards has run for nine scores over his past five games, Tomlinson’s best stretch after turning 28 was a mere seven rushing scores.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: First quarter under 9.5 points, first half under 23.5 points, under 48 points, Lamar Jackson under 1.5 touchdown passes
- Odds: +355 (at DraftKings)
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