Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice came on strong to finish his rookie season, but legal troubles have been the primary story this offseason for the encouraging 24 year old.
In addition to the unknown when it comes to suspension length, the Chiefs brought in a veteran playmaker in Marquise Brown and spent the 28th overall pick on a burner in Xavier Worthy.
We will detail fantasy football rankings adjustments as Rice’s status in the courtroom comes to light, but when on the field, how should managers evaluate Rice in Year 2?
Rashee Rice’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The longer I’ve looked at this profile, I’ve settled on a position that is rare for me.
Entering drafts, I’m “that” guy. I come to the room with notes on every nagging injury, every recent setback, and every ounce of coach speak. Of course, every situation is different, but generally speaking, I’m an information manager and take pride in staying updated.
This process often leads to me being cautious when it comes to players with even the slightest question mark. Why roll the dice before the season even starts if I can get someone in the same tier without the red flags?
In most situations, that would result in me being lower than the industry on Rice. But I’m willing to make an exception, and I’m prepared to argue that the more significant the discipline, the more intrigued I will be thanks to a declining ADP.
Rice is that good.
Rookie WR Rashee Rice.
13 receptions/2TDs in his last three games. Hi-Lo concepts. Catch and run. Schemed targets (screens).
Physical here on the finish. pic.twitter.com/9cfG4fco55
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 24, 2023
The Chiefs slow-played his development last season and were rewarded with Rice producing as a WR1 down the stretch and during their run to a second consecutive Super Bowl title.
At one point in the second half of last season, he saw 9+ Patrick Mahomes targets in five straight games. Including the playoffs, if you extend Rice’s last 10 games over a 17-game regular season …
- 117 catches
- 1,326 receiving yards
- Seven touchdowns
Rice was 2023 A.J. Brown after Thanksgiving last season, and while I’m not projecting quite that level of per-game production, he’s in the top 15 conversation for me at the position (per game).
Those stats might seem unsustainable, but the majority of those games either came against a defense that ranked in the top quarter of the league in opponent passer rating, or is in the AFC West alongside the Chiefs.
In other words, Rice dominated against the elite defenses and the defenses he’ll see twice a year for as long as he is with the Chiefs. That’ll work!
With all the chips in the middle of the table, Rice hauled in 78.8% of targets during the playoffs, a run that came after 1.5 months of consistent usage and defenses now being well aware of him as the primary threat in the KC receiver room.
The quick targets and scheme get lots of credit, and they should, but let’s not rule out Rice’s ability to win routes when it counts most. We know Mahomes is never beholden to any read on any play, making where he goes with the ball in scoring positions especially interesting to me.
Most Red-Zone Targets By a Rookie in the Past Decade
- 2014 Odell Beckham: 25
- 2023 Rashee Rice: 22
- 2017 Cooper Kupp: 20
I understand that Rice’s status is cloudy and that his target competition has been ramped up. I’ll embrace any skepticism you may have. Travis Kelce has been a dominant force for years and guess what? Mahomes has found a way to get him the ball in position to do damage regardless of the opposing defensive scheme.
Rice is an elite talent, and even if you’re not ready to make that leap, he profiles as an alpha target earner in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense – that should be enough.
We will see exactly where his ADP falls as his status to open the season gains clarity, but you can rest assured that I will be a round higher than the public.
Rashee Rice’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 15.0 ppg
- Receptions: 94
- Receiving Yards: 1,115
- Receiving TDs: 8.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.