Raiders vs. Rams Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 14

We examine the odds and make a prediction for TNF -- can the Rams over-perform to keep pace with a surprisingly good Raiders offense?

This Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams prediction comes with a bit of risk to NFL bettors because there is an element of the unknown regarding the Rams’ starting quarterback. LA just acquired Baker Mayfield off waivers, and head coach Sean McVay left the door ever so slightly open that we could see him play. If it isn’t him, it was Bryce Perkins two weeks ago and John Wolford last week.

Uncertainty should make any bettor uneasy. That said, the winner is perhaps not so much in doubt in this game, and it really comes down to how you feel about the point spread and the over/under. Finding value in the Raiders vs. Rams odds is the trick when looking at the final score predicted by the model.

Using the Behavior Bets sports betting model and the consistency of both teams behaviorally, placing wagers ATS and on the over/under is what we will primarily examine. Below you will find what the bets would be IF you were directly tailing the model.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Odds | Week 14

  • Spread: Raiders -6*
  • Moneyline: Raiders -250
  • Over/Under: Over 44.5*

*The model has predicted a seven-point Raiders victory. That close of a margin means I recommend caution when tailing that bet. 

**Note the Behavior Bets model predicted the over/under at 46. That close of a margin means I did not personally place a bet on the total in this game.

Raiders vs. Rams Prediction

Last week, this model had the Rams losing to the Seattle Seahawks by 10 points (and thus Seattle covering -8). If you follow me on Pikkit, you can track this model’s bets on the best bet tracking app on the market, Pikkit, you will see I had only wagered .5u on the spread and moneyline, respectively. This was in large part due to the Rams’ uncertainty at QB.

The Rams lost by four largely due to John Wolford leading the offensive unit to its third-best points per minute of possession time of the season, regardless of quarterback. Can they have similar results this week? That is what’s at the heart of this Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles prediction.

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FanDuel Sportsbook: Bet $5, Win $125 on any NFL game!

The Raiders bring Defensive Player of the Year candidate Maxx Crosby to this game, and he can make any quarterback’s day a living hell. That said, the Raiders’ defense is giving up .8 points per minute of opposing possession time. That is the fourth-fastest rate at giving up points in the entire NFL.

That is probably the biggest contributor to their undesirable record. That’s good news for the Rams, as they score at a slower rate than that. Coming off the heels of last week, LA may be able to get a good pace going.

The good news for the Raiders’ defense is that they have been getting better week over week at a 5% rate. Maxx Crosby has a lot to do with that, playing at an elite level this season. He has been one of the most disruptive forces to opposing passing games. Even when he is not getting sacks, he impacts the passing game. That should potentially slow down the pace.

The Rams’ offense is averaging .52 points per minute of possession time. That is eighth-worst in the NFL. Last week was their third-best outing of the season in terms of pace, and even that barely touched the average of what the Raiders give up this season. While the Raiders’ defense gives them a chance to improve on that, it is the Raiders’ offense that should be most concerning.

MORE: NFL DFS Week 14, Best Bargain for Each Team

The Raiders have the fifth-fastest scoring offense. Averaging .86 points per minute of possession (excluding obvious outliers) is good enough for fifth in the NFL. The Raiders are just behind the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs,  two of the best offenses in the league.

The Rams’ defense, meanwhile, gives up .73 points per minute of opposing possession time, which has them among the 10 worst teams in the league. Ultimately, I don’t think the Rams can keep pace with the Raiders.

The Rams’ defense hasn’t been good enough this season to slow the Vegas offense down enough for the Rams’ offense to keep pace.

Raiders vs. Rams Prediction: Raiders 27, Rams 20

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