Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert was one of the most productive backs in the NFL last season; despite missing a little bit of time, he put up his first thousand-yard season and scored 18 touchdowns on the ground. However, the opening day of the 2024 campaign did not go as planned for the speedster as he recorded just 19 yards from scrimmage. So, should fantasy football managers be concerned?
UPDATE: De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert were both listed as non-participants Monday, but are still expected to be active in Week 2. The Dolphins did not practice on Monday, so the report is just an estimation.
Is Raheem Mostert a Buy Low for Fantasy Managers?
In short, there is a real reason for concern. However, let’s start out by looking at some reasons that everything might be OK for Mostert and his fantasy managers.
The game script didn’t favor the ground game in general, as the Dolphins trailed by a wide margin for most of it, which shouldn’t be the case every week. The Miami rushing game also wasn’t at its best, accruing just 81 yards on 25 carries as a team. After leading the NFL with an average of 5.1 yards per carry last year, the Dolphins should be better most weeks.
However, it’s not like they were facing a defensive juggernaut; the Jacksonville Jaguars are an average run defense by most accounts. They were also at home, erasing another potential way to explain away a poor game for an offense.
Mostert struggled in terms of both efficiency and volume, a very troubling development. He ran for just nine yards on six carries, with six of those yards coming on one rush. By comparison, Jeff Wilson Jr. led the Dolphins with 26 ground yards via just five carries, while De’Von Achane was only a bit more efficient than Mostert, though his 10 carries indicate top-back status.
Achane was also much more productive in the passing game. He caught seven passes for 76 yards compared to two for 10 from Mostert. The second-year back also scored Miami’s lone rushing touchdown of the day.
The Dolphins’ success on the ground has largely been driven by scheme and ball-carrier performance, as their offensive line doesn’t frequently grade among the very best in the league. If Mostert isn’t creating for himself, it’s possible that he simply won’t be as productive as he was a year ago.
Mostert defied the norm by putting up a phenomenal rushing season at the age of 31 last year, but the proverbial “cliff” can come at any time for any back. This might be the year he loses a step, and Mike McDaniel using Achane as the lead runner implies that the Miami coach believes that this could be the case.
Overall, the Dolphins’ ground game should be much better as the season goes on, and Mostert will have better days than his season debut as a result. Achane also has some shaky injury history, so Mostert could be thrust right back into the top role in Miami at any time.
However, the days of using him as a full-time starter have probably come and gone. Don’t get rid of him right now, as you’ll all but certainly have better opportunities to do so, but most managers shouldn’t go out of their way to make a move for him either.
The exceptions would be if you desperately need a running back and can negotiate a very low price due to the tough week, or if you’re rostering Achane and would like to use this opportunity to get some insurance at a deflated cost.