After posting one of the most unexpected seasons for any player last season, fantasy football managers probably have a much different view of Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert entering this season.
But has age and continued sharing of the backfield with De’Von Achane made Mostert a one-hit wonder in fantasy production?
Here is the fantasy outlook for Mostert for 2024.
Raheem Mostert Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
On a Dolphins team loaded with one offensive weapon after another, Mostert helped to make this team’s offense even more lethal in 2023.
After racking up 14 rushing touchdowns total over his first seven seasons in the NFL, Mostert surprised everyone by leading the NFL in touchdown runs last season with 18.
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Mostert also added three touchdown receptions to finish as the NFL leader in touchdowns from scrimmage (21). He also had career highs in rush attempts (209), enjoyed his first 1,000-yard rushing season (1,012), and averaged nearly 5 yards a carry in 2023 (4.8).
In nine of his 15 games, Mostert averaged at least 4 yards a carry. On the other hand, he finished with just two 100-yard rushing games, each coming against two of last season’s worst teams — the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers.
While he was the league’s most prolific scorer, fantasy managers probably already know that Mostert is far from a big-play threat. Of his 18 rushing touchdowns last season, 13 were from inside 10 yards, with 10 of the 18 scores from three yards out or less.
Mostert proved to be a decent but hardly outstanding threat to catch passes out of the backfield. He finished last season with 25 receptions, catching more than three passes once. His three touchdown receptions were a positive addition to his fantasy value, but they were hardly elite for a top-level running back.
Is Mostert a Good Fantasy Pick?
Mostert is the RB25 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings.
On the surface, this seems like a pretty low ranking, especially for a player who led the league in touchdowns a season ago and is a key part of arguably the best offense in the NFL.
But two big factors are likely keeping Mostert from having a higher ranking in fantasy circles.
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One is age. At age 32, could fantasy managers have witnessed the last of Mostert’s excellence last season? Running backs typically do not excel after hitting age 30, and Mostert is two years past that line.
While the fact that Mostert produced the way he did last season at age 31 is impressive, expecting similar results at another year old, coming off the most work he’s put in a season in his career is probably asking too much for this running back.
The other issue is De’Von Achane, who is 10 years younger and coming off a terrific rookie season. It’s difficult to imagine Achane’s role with the Dolphins will decline this season. In fact, fantasy managers are likely expecting Achane to turn into the feature back for Miami.
Despite coming off an impressive season, fantasy managers aren’t likely to consider adding Mostert until at least the middle rounds of any draft. Given Achane’s ascension, a late-round pick is the more likely position for Mostert.