Should You Start Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane vs. the Jaguars in Fantasy Football Week 1?

Both Miami Dolphins running backs were elite fantasy assets last season. Although De’Von Achane is the much more coveted player this year, Raheem Mostert was the better option last year. Which RB should fantasy football managers start in Week 1 for the 2024 season?

Should You Start Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane This Week?

Did you see the title of this article and scoff at the notion of starting a seventh-round pick over a third-rounder? I mean…that’s fair. But let’s not pretend like the fantasy community isn’t making some serious assumptions about how this backfield will play out.

Last year, Mostert was the clear RB1 and primary goal-line back. He out-touched the rookie in the red zone 53-28. At the goal line, it was even less of a contest, with Mostert handling 16 attempts to Achane’s two. Mostert played in four more games, but that’s not enough to account for the difference.

Heading into the 2024 season, fantasy managers are expecting the most efficient rookie RB of all time to take a large step forward. That is why Achane is been elevated to a top-12 pick.

Meanwhile, 32-year-old Mostert, who was almost entirely reliant on touchdowns last season, is largely an afterthought.

The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer has this closer than the gap in their ADPs would suggest. However, Achane is firmly ahead, projected for 13.5 fantasy points against Mostert’s 11.0.

I agree with the Optimizer. My general approach to Week 1 is to start the players in the order in which you drafted them. There are obviously exceptions, but those primarily occur when players are drafted near each other and one has a clearly superior matchup.

Here, we have two players on the same team, with one being taken an average of five rounds earlier. Go with the younger, more explosive talent in a game that could be a sneaky shootout.

Mostert’s Fantasy Outlook This Week

Mostert averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game last season, finishing as the overall RB4. He was efficient, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but he only carried the ball 209 times. Mostert’s season was largely predicated on scoring 21 total touchdowns.

The good news for Mostert’s outlook this week is he will still be the starter. When the Dolphins take the field for their first snap on Sunday, it will be Mostert up first.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were an average matchup for opposing running backs last year. While that’s no guarantee things will remain the same this season, we have to rely on last year’s data for now.

Jacksonville allowed 17.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, 17th in the league — right smack in the middle of the pack — and allowed 15 rushing touchdowns.

Mostert scored in all but three games he played in last season, and he’s a better-than-average bet to score any given week. Fantasy managers shouldn’t necessarily shy away from starting him in Week 1.

Achane’s Fantasy Outlook This Week

Achane is obviously facing the same opponent, so all of the matchup data applies. However, receiving is the one aspect of the matchup that applies more to him.

Achane is very clearly the primary receiving back. Last season, he saw an 11.3% target share, compared to just 6.8% for Mostert (which was actually high for him). If the Jaguars are anything like they were last year, it could be a nice start to the season for the sophomore.

Last season, Jacksonville allowed a 22.6% target share to opposing running backs, which was the second highest in the league.

The Dolphins lack a clear third option in the passing game behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Achane could very well be that guy. We’ve seen him run legit WR-like routes and see downfield targets. He even caught one in the preseason.

Achane may be a running back, but he’s really just a dynamic offensive weapon that excels in every aspect of football. He could be in for heavy usage as a receiver, instantly rewarding fantasy managers who took a chance on him with a premium pick.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Mostert and Achane in Week 1

De’Von Achane: Last season, we saw a running back reach 17.9 PPR fantasy points on eight occasions against the Jaguars, and that includes seeing both ends of a tandem do it to close the season (Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry). Could we see something similar on Sunday?

It’s certainly possible. At the very least, you can feel good about Achane. In 11 of 15 games to close last season, a running back cleared 13 PPR points in this matchup, and given their respective ADPs, it’s clear that Achane is the favorite to be the lead producer in this backfield.

As a rookie, Achane either saw 3+ targets or ripped off a 25+ yard run in nine of 11 games. I can preach “regression” as much as I want to, but even as a skeptic, I’m playing him without much thought.

Raheem Mostert: Despite Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense; while carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (he scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).

As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out – anyone with a piece of this backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.