In need of a fantasy football win? We aren’t too far from the midway point of our regular season, and you can’t afford to fall too far behind. I’m here to help you break those QB start/sit ties and have your team pointing in the right direction when Week 4 is all said and done.
Which Quarterbacks Should Fantasy Managers Start in Week 4?
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at CAR)
Tee Higgins returned to action last week, and that was good to see. However, I’d argue that the bigger impact from Week 3 was confirmation that Cincinnati has no interest in defending.
This season, when trailing, NFL teams have dropped back to pass 66.5% of the time. That, as you’d expect, dwarfs the rate for teams when leading (49%). That makes me think that two-week segments where Joe Burrow throws 74 passes (52 completions for 582 yards and five scores) will be more of a norm than an outlier.
If the Week 3 Panthers show up in Week 4, what we saw from the Bengals on Monday night against the Commanders could happen again. That game script allows Burrow to crack the top five at the position this week as he faces a defense lit up by Derek Carr in Week 1 (200 yards and three touchdowns on 23 passes). After all, he still has the combination of Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins catching the ball.
Joe Burrow's 41-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase was the duo's 13th deep touchdown since Chase entered the NFL in 2021, 2nd-most among QB-receiver duos in that span.
Only Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill have combined for more among duos (14).#WASvsCIN | @Bengals pic.twitter.com/ibNGDQNjrc
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 24, 2024
Burrow and his frosted tips receive a lot of negative attention because of this team’s limited success, but the man has averaged over 10 yards per completion in five of his past seven games. The two exceptions over that stretch were games against elite defenses in Baltimore and New England.
I think we can agree that Carolina’s defense isn’t in the same zip code as either of those units.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs. SEA)
The Lions are 2-1 and remain positioned to be a threat to represent the NFC when all is said and done this winter. However, their wins haven’t been what we expected.
Lions Wins
- 2023: 30.8 points per game in regulation
- 2024: 20.0 points per game in regulation
Goff has yet to finish a week better than QB14 this season despite three matchups that grade out as more favorable than what he faces this week (Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Rams). I think that QB14 number is the right range this week as it puts him in the same area as other pocket-locked quarterbacks like Derek Carr and Sam Darnold.
Goff isn’t a must-start, but he’s not such a bad play that you need to roll the dice in free agency. The best is yet to come from him, making this a situation where patience will be rewarded.
Which Quarterbacks Should Fantasy Managers Sit in Week 4?
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. PIT)
This is getting ugly in a hurry. Anthony Richardson threw one of the worst end-zone interceptions you’ll see last week on his way to a second straight finish outside of the top 20 performers at the position.
How long ago does that QB2 finish in Week 1 feel?
Bears pick it off in the end zone!
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Ya6gUPOYnG— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
I think better times are ahead, and this physical profile could result in a spike at any time. However, asking Richardson to break out of this funk against the league’s top defense in terms of first downs, touchdowns, third-down conversion rate, red-zone touchdown rate, and goal-to-go efficiency is … well … a lot.
I’d cite game flow as a potential positive against an undefeated Steelers team, but Pittsburgh is operating at the fourth-slowest pace and is winning games by keeping its opponent off the field.
In Week 1, Richardson picked up 11.6 fantasy points with his legs. Yet, he’s managed just 6.1 points on the ground since thanks, in large part, to a lower out-of-pocket passer rating than the recently benched Bryce Young.
If you had told me a month ago that there would be any week this season where I’d have Richardson ranked outside of my top 15 at the position, I would have said you were crazy, and I would have bet the house that such an instance wouldn’t present itself before the end of September.
Well, here we are. Richardson is not a starter for me this week, and he’s not even my favorite option in this game at the position.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN)
It was no secret that Jordan Love (knee) was a long shot to play last week. While he took the field to warm up pre-game, he was ultimately ruled inactive with the team being given a little leeway thanks to its Week 2 upset of the Colts.
There are still boxes to check, but the tea leaves last week seemed to be pointing toward a Week 4 return for this divisional showdown. Of course, Love’s status remains deserving of attention, but entering this week with the expectation to have your QB1 back is plenty reasonable.
Love sits just outside of my top 12 at the position this week, but that’s more the result of some plus-matchups for the signal-callers in his vicinity (namely Burrow in Carolina and Jayden Daniels in Arizona).
Love picked apart this Vikings defense on the road in Week 17 last season by completing 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards and three scores, a ceiling that is certainly there in his return to action. In that performance, Love had no issue with Minnesota’s high-pressure defense, completing 13 of 19 passes against the blitz and racking up 135 yards and a touchdown on those passes.
Could he be a little slow on the trigger in his return? Could the Vikings back off a bit, thus capping Love’s per-throw upside?
There are enough concerns to justify taking it slow with welcoming Love back into your fantasy lineup, but if you’ve been getting by with a fringe QB (former NFC Northers like Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins come to mind), you should be comfortable plugging Love into your lineup for his first game played in the United States this season.