Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua was a fantasy football league winner in his rookie season, though it should be noted that a very favorable role fell into his lap as a result of Cooper Kupp opening the season with an injury.
As 2023 progressed, we saw Nacua’s ability to earn targets with or without Kupp on the field — should he be considered an elite option in his second season, or is it best to consider 2023 a ceiling season and thus build in some regression across the board?
Puka Nacua’s Fantasy Forecast
The value of Nacua will be interesting to track this offseason, but it’s clear that the industry as a whole believes in the BYU product.
I mean this is just absurd from Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/2Mhj0hhHhL
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 22, 2023
We saw him getting open in tight windows the second he stepped onto an NFL field, albeit with Kupp sidelined, and we saw him develop scoring equity as the season wore on. Following a three-month stretch from October to December where he scored in just two of nine games, Nacua’s season ended with him scoring in three of four games, including the playoff loss in Detroit.
That game against the Lions is what is fueling Nacua’s first-round ADP in my opinion.
- Nacua: 10 targets — nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown
- Kupp: Nine targets — five catches for 27 yards
Is that a sign of things to come? Is Nacua’s ascent going to be as dramatic as Kupp’s decline? Counting out Kupp seems premature, but your eyes aren’t lying to you — Nacua checked every box, and then some, as a rookie. With Matthew Stafford still responsible for getting him the football, a monster 2024 season seems likely.
When it comes to actually pulling the trigger on Nacua at cost, I can’t get there. Yes, Kupp will be 31 years old when this season kicks off, but we saw glimpses of the elite version of him in December (30 targets over a three-week stretch and a touchdown in four of five games), and entering the season at full strength gives us a chance at seeing that form from the jump.
Last season, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 2,522 yards and 14 touchdowns on 187 receptions — is that a crazy projection for this Rams tandem?
If Nacua were to account for 55% of that production, you’re almost getting a carbon copy of what we saw during his rookie season.
- Nacua’s 2023 stats: 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns
- 55% of Eagles duo: 103 catches for 1,387 yards and eight touchdowns
Does that make him a first-round pick? That stat line would, but there is certainly some risk you are taking on by labeling Nacua as the clear-cut WR1 with Kupp healthy. Drafters are plucking him off the board ahead of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, two receivers whose role is not a question.
Nacua has the production floor over those two WR1s, and I don’t think he’s a bad way to start your build, but I’d be more likely to wait the 2+ rounds and bet on Kupp. Naturally, you have to be comfortable with the health of Stafford — without the veteran under center, neither Nacua nor Kupp will return on your investment.