Week 1 of the fantasy football season kicked off with the Kansas City Chiefs defeating the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 on opening night. I’ll tackle some key start/sit decisions as the weekend approaches while reviewing our consensus rankings.
Here, I’ll explore Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Nacua is coming off a record-breaking rookie year, but Kupp is a reliable veteran who had a triple-crown season not too long ago, leading the NFL in receptions, yards, and touchdown catches.
Find out who to start between these two players.
Should You Start Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say Nacua is the player to start. His projected 15.4 points in PPR leagues include a projection of five catches for 77 yards.
That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Kupp (12.9 points).
My ranking for the two Rams wide receivers aligns with the consensus, as Kupp will match up mostly against Carlton Davis. He could see some of Lions rookie Terrion Arnold, but I think Nacua has the superior matchup here when the Rams travel to take on the Detroit Lions.
According to TruMedia, Nacua caught 105 passes last season and averaged 14.2 yards per catch, with 639 of his 1,486 yards after the catch.
Nacua’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
On the road, Nacua will see a lot of Davis here. In 2023, Davis allowed 51 catches for 79 yards for 776 yards and five touchdowns. There were three games where he was targetted double-digit times, and he allowed five catches in six games.
Nacua could also see some of Arnold here, but Arnold mostly lined up on the left side in college. At Alabama, he played just two snaps on the right side compared to 465 on the left.
The total in this game is listed at 52 points, with the Lions favored, so with a high total and as an underdog, I expect plenty of passing from the Rams here on the road.
Davis also allowed 15.2 yards per catch, and Nacua is a player who can make big plays happen.
This is certainly a matchup mismatch.
Kupp’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
Kupp is healthy coming into 2024, but he’s 31 years old now. Many wide receivers are in their 30s and still performing, and throughout the season, Kupp will be just fine. In fact, I think he’s being slept on overall.
In 2023, Kupp caught 59 passes on 92 targets for 737 yards and five touchdowns. This was over 12 games.
Where Kupp could succeed here is his ability to gobble up catches 0-9 yards downfield, as 62% of his 2023 targets were thrown there.
He’ll match up with Amik Robertson, who’s coming over from the Las Vegas Raiders. In 2023, Robertson allowed 40 catches on 64 targets for 445 yards and three touchdowns.
There’s a scenario where Kupp sees a lot of targets and rakes in the receptions, but I’ll take the big-play upside of Nacua against a cornerback who didn’t perform well last season.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Nacua and Kupp in Week 1
Puka Nacua: He shook off a preseason injury and appears ready to pick up where he left off as a rookie. We saw his role slowly extend down the field last season, and he could well take the top off of this vulnerable Lions defense in addition to the highly efficient targets that he is so good at earning within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
In 2023, Detroit had the third-highest opponent aDOT and allowed 40 completions on passes that traveled 25+ yards in the air. Nacua can pay off your optimism without the big play and has the potential to break the slate any time he and Stafford make a splash.
Cooper Kupp: There is no need to get into the Nacua vs. Kupp debate — both are great, and I expect both to produce at the level of a fantasy starter, both this week and for the entirety of the season.
In his historic 2022 season, it was Kupp’s target-earning that caught everyone’s eye. Nacua is the betting favorite to out-earn him this season, but much like the Rodgers/Adams connection in Green Bay for years, the telepathic powers inside the red zone can pay the fantasy bills in a major way.
In an injury-plagued season, amid Nacua lighting the world on fire, Kupp saw 18.9% of his targets come inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (Nacua: 10%). Both should regularly see enough volume to produce without a touchdown, but Kupp’s touchdown equity should be viewed as elite; that keeps him at a WR2 floor, even if you think Nacua is the featured receiver this season.